Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-24

The ALP Government is now ahead of the Coalition on two-party preferred after Opposition Leader Peter Dutton put nuclear energy at the centre of the Coalition’s policies for the Federal election.: ALP 51% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 49% (down 1%). If a Federal Election were held now the result would be a hung parliament with the ALP likely to form a minority government with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. The swing to the ALP was strongest in NSW (ALP: +3.5%), WA (ALP: +4.5%) and SA (ALP: +5%). There was no swing to either party in Victoria while in Queensland the LNP gained a swing of 3.5% against the national trend. Primary support for the Coalition was down 1% to 37% this week while the ALP closed the gap, up 2% to 31.5%. Support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13%, support for One Nation increased 1% to 6%, support for Other Parties was down 1.5% to 4% and support for Independents was unchanged at 8.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

The Albanese Government and the Liberal-National Coalition are now ‘dead even’ on two-party preferred terms: ALP 50% (down 3.5%) cf. Coalition 50% (up 3.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. The major States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland drove the swing to the Coalition this week with each State swinging by at least 3% away from the Government. Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 38% this week. The increase for the Coalition came at the expense of the ALP, down 1% to 29.5%, and the Greens, down 2% to 13.5%. Support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5%, support for Other Parties was up 1.5% to 5.5% and support for Independents was down 1% at 8.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-24

The Albanese Government has increased its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition: ALP 53.5% (up 1.5%) cf. Coalition 46.5% (down 1.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with an increased majority, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Support for the Government improved for a second straight week on a two-party preferred basis to its highest for over three months since the first week of March. For the second straight week the major States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland all swung to the ALP on a two-party preferred basis. The Albanese Government now leads clearly in NSW (56% cf. 44%) and Victoria (57.5% cf. 42.5%) and has narrowed the gap in Queensland (47% cf. 53%). Primary support for both major parties dropped this week. Support for the ALP was down 0.5% to 30.5% while support for the Coalition was down 1% to 35%. Looking at support for the minor parties shows support for the Greens increased 1.5% to 15.5%, support for One Nation was up 1% to 5.5%, support for Other Parties was down 1.5% to 4% and support for Independents was up 0.5% at 9.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jun-24

The primary support for both major parties fell slightly this week. The main beneficiaries were the Greens (up 1.5% to 15.5%) and One Nation (up 1% to 5.5%). The strong protests by Greens supporters against Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza over the last week, including with Greens Leader Adam Bandt addressing the crowd, have clearly been a factor behind the rising support for the Greens. This week’s results show over a third of Australian electors (34.5%) now supporting either a minor party or independent – up almost 3% points from the 2022 Federal Election (31.7%). The rising proportion of Australians supporting minor parties and independents increases the likelihood we will end up with a hung Parliament after the next Federal Election. However, the clear lead for the ALP this week means that if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with an increased majority.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-24

The Albanese Government has regained the advantage on a two-party preferred basis with the ALP on 52% ahead of the Coalition on 48% – a return to the Roy Morgan Poll results for the four-week stretch from April 15 – May 12. Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 31% and helped power the Government back into the two-party preferred lead. The rise in support came after the Government issued a new directive to prioritise community safety and dump the former policy known as ‘Directive 99’ when dealing with foreign-born criminals released from Australian prisons. On a gender basis the two-party preferred swing was larger among men than women – with both genders now preferring the ALP over the Coalition. Analysis of results on a State-by-State basis shows the swing to the ALP was most significant in the three largest States of New South Wales (+7%), Victoria (+6%) and Queensland (+4.5%). In addition to the ‘national issues’, it is worth noting the Miles ALP Government in Queensland reduced all public transport fares to 50 cent for the next six months – a significant saving amounting to thousands of dollars for many commuters in Brisbane. In New South Wales, the Minns ALP Government announced that Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, Eraring, would have its operating life extended for two years until 2027. This will secure lower energy prices over the next two years for residents of New South Wales.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jun-24

The Albanese Government has regained the lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 52% (up 3.5%) ahead of the Coalition 48% (down 3.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Support for the Government improved after dumping the controversial ‘Directive 99’ and issuing a new directive to ensure community safety outweighs any other consideration when assessing the visa conditions of foreign-born criminals released from Australian prisons. In addition, the terrible landslide in Papua New Guinea, which buried as many as 2,000 people, dominated news headlines; while there finally appears to be progress towards peace in the Middle East with Israel and Hamas considering a three-phase peace deal to end the conflict. Primary support for the ALP increased 2.5% to 31% and support for the Coalition was down 1% to 36%. This is the closest the two parties have been since before the Federal Budget in early May. Support for the Greens was down 1% to 14%, support for One Nation decreased 1.5% to 4.5%, support for Other Parties was up 1% to 5.5% and support for Independents was unchanged at 9%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-24

Primary support for the ALP has dropped 2% to 28.5% last week after student protests on University campuses in support of Palestine were broken up and Foreign Minister Penny Wong has consistently expressed support for a two-state solution to end the conflict in Gaza. ALP support was also undermined because Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to support Israel after International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. However, the Coalition is not benefiting directly from this, its primary vote remained unchanged at 37%. Instead, support has increased for the Greens is up 0.5% to 15%, One Nation, is up 0.5% to 6%, Independents are up 0.5% to 9% and Other Parties are up 0.5% to 5%. More women than men swung against the Albanese Government and a look at the results in the different States shows the strongest swings against the ALP on a two-party preferred basis were in Queensland (-7.5%) and Victoria (-6.5%). In addition to the national issues, in Queensland the Steven Miles-led ALP Government is facing a State Election defeat this year while in Victoria the Jacinta Allan-led ALP Government has just handed down a State Budget with spending cuts and no sign of any cost-of-living relief for consumers.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-May-24

The Coalition now has a clear lead on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since the Federal Election more than two years ago: L-NP 51.5% (up 2%) ahead of the ALP 48.5% (down 2%) in the week student protests on University campuses in support of Palestine were broken up. In addition, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese failed to come out in support of Israel after the International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan issued applications for arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. While support for the ALP dropped for a second straight week, and was down 2% to only 28.5% this week, the drop in ALP primary support drifted to minor parties and independents, not to the Coalition. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged on 37% for a third straight week. If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would form a minority government, but with the support of minor parties and independents, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 15% and support for One Nation increased 0.5% to 6%. In addition, support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4.5% and support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,488 Australian electors from May 20-26, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-24

The following are some reasons the ALP vote has declined: In a climate where Australians are concerned about cost of living, inflation, and the housing crisis, the Reserve Bank has drawn a causal link between the housing crisis and immigration levels. The Reserve Bank has stated high immigration is driving rental inflation and this creates a housing crisis for many Australians. The Government’s failure to tackle high immigration – Coalition Leader Peter Dutton has stated the Coalition will cut annual permanent migration to 140,000 – is hurting the Government. The Government’s commitment to hand billions of dollars as tax rebates to Australian billionaires to create ‘clean technology’ such as ‘Green Steel’ has not resonated with electors; and in addition the $300 per year household electricity rebate will be only a ‘drop in the bucket’ compared to increasing mortgages and rising food prices.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-May-24

The Albanese Labor Government has lost support and now only has a narrow lead after delivering the Federal Budget: ALP 50.5% (down 1.5%) compared to the Coalition on 49.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the Federal Budget last week. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call with a hung parliament and the support of minor parties and independents required for either the ALP or Coalition to form a minority government, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged on 37% this week while support for the ALP dropped 1.5% to only 30.5%. Much of this support went to the Greens, up 1% to 14.5%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 5.5%, while support for Other Parties was down 0.5% to 4% and support for Independents increased by 1% to 8.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,674 Australian electors from May 13-19, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY