Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-19

Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating has increased by 11.5pts to 104.5 following the L-NP’s victory at the Federal Election in mid-May. Interviewing conducted on the weekends of 22-23 and 29-30 June 2019 shows that 43.5% (up 6%) of electors now say that Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’, and 39% (down 5.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’. The turnaround in Government Confidence since the Federal Election has been driven by strong increases in Government Confidence amongst a number of key demographics, including L-NP supporters and supporters of Independents/Others, electors in Country Areas, electors in Queensland and Western Australia, electors aged 50+ and electors of both genders. However, Government Confidence amongst ALP supporters has fallen 14.5pts to 84 after the party lost an election most Australians expected it to win.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

How to fix Australian polling

Original article by John Utting
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 54 : 23-May-19

Australia’s polling industry requires ‘root and branch’ reform in the wake of the federal election, with public opinion polls consistently showing that Labor was set to win. The question arises as to whether these polls have had a pro-Labor bias for the last several years, rather than just during the election campaign. The polling industry needs to ensure that their samples are more representative of the population, even though this will be more expensive. There must also be greater transparency regarding the methodology used and the number of people who were polled. Polling companies must also disclose any potential conflicts of interest; Galaxy YouGov Research, for example, produced public opinion polls during the election while also undertaking Labor’s internal polling.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, GALAXY YOUGOV RESEARCH, NEWSPOLL

Scott Morrison wins surprise Federal Election

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-May-19

Saturday’s Federal Election results shows the L-NP Government will likely be returned with a small majority. Analysis of the polls show all polls significantly underestimated the L-NP primary vote. The Roy Morgan Poll a week before the Federal Election had L-NP support at 38.5% – 2.9% lower than their actual vote of 41.4%. Roy Morgan throughout the election campaign period showed from survey data that: The Federal Election would be close – even a ‘Hung Parliament’ was possible. There will be many views and reasons posed for why Saturday’s election result was a victory for the Morrison led L-NP. The question still to be answered is whether: All polls were wrong in underestimating the L-NP (38.5% vs. 41.4%) vote during the whole election campaign (the Trump Factor), or did electors change their minds in the last week – after the death of former ALP Prime Minister Bob Hawke (much loved) and Shorten who on the last day raised the ‘ghost’ of Gough Whitlam ignoring electors concerns of bad economic news resulting in a fall in the $AUD and the escalation of the US/China ‘trade war’. Morrison never changed his message that a Coalition Government would ‘Cut taxes’ while Labor would ‘Increase tax’ on Incomes, Capital gains and ‘Super’, eliminate Franking credits and cut Negative gearing. The revenue raised would then be used to increase wages and massive Government spending on Health, Education and other areas including ‘Climate Change’. Morrison refused to be drawn into the debate on ‘Climate Change’ like Fraser in 1975 refused to be drawn into the debate on the ‘Dismissal’ – both issues having no relevance to ‘day-to-day’ living costs which easily concerned the electorate the most – as it did in 1975. While preferences from One Nation (vote 3%) and Palmer’s United Australian Party (vote 3.4%) enabled the Coalition to win sufficient seats to retain Government the ALP vote was at a low 33.9% – down 1.1% on the last Federal Election. View full release here.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Two-thirds of Australians think the ALP is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted over the last few days shows a large majority of 66% of Australian electors think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election compared to only 34% that think the L-NP Coalition will win. ALP supporters are particularly confident with 81% saying they think the ALP will win, while a bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters think the L-NP will win. Greens supporters are even more confident about an ALP victory with 84% expecting an ALP victory while 64.5% of supporters of Independents/Others expect an ALP win. Young Australians are more confident of an ALP victory than their older peers with 80% of 18-24 year olds expecting an ALP victory compared to 74.5% of 25-34 year olds, 65% of 35-49 year olds, 61.5% of 50-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+ years old. Click here for full details

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

The Greens are hoping for a big election. But who are they?

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-19

Australians head to an important Federal Election this week, with the latest Roy Morgan Polls showing the ALP 51% with a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Support for the Greens was at 11% in the Roy Morgan Poll conducted on May 4/5. The close results from the latest Roy Morgan Polls mean there is a very good chance Australia could once again elect a hung Parliament. The Greens achieved a record high vote of 13.1% in the Senate and 11.8% in the House of Representatives at the 2010 Federal Election. Has the composition of Greens support changed since 2010? Greens supporters are concentrated in the highest socio-economic quintiles with 31% of Greens supporters in the highest socio-economic AB quintile in 2018, unchanged from 2010, and 24% of Greens supporters in the C quintile, also unchanged. Although Greens supporter distribution by socio-economic quintile is largely unchanged from 2010 there are underlying changes in the composition of Greens support. Women now comprise 59% of Greens supporters, up from 54% in 2010, while men now comprise only 41% of Greens supporters, down from 46% at the start of the decade. Meanwhile, an increasing proportion of Greens supporters today are in the younger age groups.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine analyses the boost in support for the ALP a week before the Federal Election

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience. Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday. In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up. However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ALP regains initiative with a week to go: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The last face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll before the election shows the ALP regaining the initiative and pulling away from the L-NP with an election winning two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%. The increase for the ALP came through an increased primary vote at the expense of the Greens, according to the final face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll of the Federal Election, and indicates the chances of Australia electing a hung Parliament this weekend have diminished. Primary Voting Intention: Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 38.5% this week but support for the ALP increased by 1.5% to 35.5%. The ALP gained support from the Greens, down 1% to 10%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged at 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down marginally by 0.5% to 8.5%. In a worrying sign for the L-NP Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped 6pts to 93 this week with 44.5% of electors (up 3.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ and only 37.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

State of the Nation – Election 2019 a photo finish

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-May-19

What seemed like a foregone conclusion after the Liberal Party Leadership upheaval late last year has suddenly become a competitive contest between the L-NP Government led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Bill Shorten-led ALP Opposition. After Malcolm Turnbull was ‘turfed out’ from his job as Prime Minister in August 2018, and replaced by the then largely unknown among the public Scott Morrison, the Roy Morgan Poll showed the ALP two-party preferred vote spiking to what seemed an unbeatable lead with the Federal Election set to be called within the next few months: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% (October 2018). Following the leadership change former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull immediately resigned from his seat of Wentworth causing a by-election in his seat which was won by Independent candidate Dr. Kerryn Phelps, and Liberal MP Julia Banks resigned from the Government and joined the cross-bench. At this time the Morrison Government was beset by instability and appeared to be on the verge of collapse at any moment. Many media commentators (from afar) advised new Prime Minister Morrison to call an early Federal Election to put the political uncertainty to rest. As we now know PM Morrison ignored these calls and pledged to take the Government ‘full-term’ until May 2019, which he has done, and the last three Roy Morgan Polls conducted since mid-April 2019 show a very close contest with the ALP just ahead: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. A number of key factors will determine who wins this year’s Federal Election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Three weeks locked at ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% – Palmer "jumps" 1.5%

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-19

For the third straight week the two major parties are locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis, according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of May 4/5, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors. Primary support for both major parties fell this week, but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result. The L-NP now has a primary vote of 38.5% (down 1%) and is clearly ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 2%) while Greens support is up 1.5% to 11%. Support for One Nation is up 1.5% to 4% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 1.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down 1.5% to 9%. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined by 2.5pts to 99 with slightly more Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ than ‘heading in the right direction’. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says both major parties require a small swing to claim a workable majority of 77 seats in the expanded 151 seat Parliament, and with the tight nature of the race it could again be independents and minor party candidates who decide who will be Prime Minister after next week’s election.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Parties locked in close contest for second week: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-19

For the second straight week the Roy Morgan Poll shows the two major parties locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis, according to a face-to-face survey conducted on the weekend of April 27/28, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors. Both major parties managed to increase their primary votes this week at the expense of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result ahead of the first Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in Perth. The L-NP primary vote was up 0.5% to 39.5% from a week ago compared to the ALP on 36% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 9.5% while support for One Nation fell 2% to 2.5%. Support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged on 2% while support for Independents/Others was up 1% to 10.5%.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY