L-NP (54%) widens lead over ALP (46%) in mid-August as Victoria and NSW grapple with second wave of COVID-19

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says support for the L-NP Federal Government (54%) is at its equal highest since the 2019 Federal Election, now well ahead of the ALP (46%) on a two-party preferred basis. Support for the LN-P has risen strongly in South Australia, NSW, Victoria and Queensland. The second wave of COVID-19 which began in Melbourne with a breach of hotel quarantine in late May has led to a Stage 4 lockdown in the city since early August with mandatory mask wearing enforced throughout Victoria for all residents. The good news is that since the Stage 4 lockdown began new cases of the virus have dropped significantly and are now at their lowest since early July. Looking forward, the extension of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker support packages until March 2021 has provided certainty to businesses dealing with the ongoing impact of the pandemic, and the example of NSW over the last seven weeks shows that the virus can be successfully managed.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jul-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explains: "The L-NP Government (51.5%, up 1% since June) leads the ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as a new wave of COVID-19 has forced the Melbourne metropolitan area back into lockdown. Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 9.5pts to 114.5 nationally from a month ago, but has fallen by a significant 16pts to only 104 in Victoria as other States have closed their borders to Victorians and the outbreak threatens the national economic recovery. In response the Federal Government has extended JobKeeper and JobSeeker until March 2021, however this has led to the forecast Federal Budget deficit blowing out to a record $186 billion for 2020/21."

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

L-NP (50.5%) holds narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) a week before the Eden-Monaro by-election

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says "The L-NP Government (50.5%) has a narrow two-party preferred lead over the ALP (49.5%) ahead of next week’s Eden-Monaro by-election. Playing on the minds of local electors will be the response of PM Scott Morrison and the L-NP to the twin crises of 2020 – devastating bushfires in the summer and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Both have had a huge impact on Eden-Monaro with the destruction of forests and property and also halting tourism to the region for months. Morrison was widely criticised for his handling of the bushfires but has redeemed himself and the Government in response to the pandemic shown by the surge in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which has recovered from a record low of 80 during the bushfires and is now at a very high 124 in mid-June."

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

L-NP support jumps as Australia responds well to COVID-19 pandemic

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-20

In the last month support for the L-NP has jumped 4.5% and recovered from a poor response to the summer bushfires, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll. L-NP 51.5% now leads the ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis following Government’s successful response to COVID-19 with now only a handful of new cases being announced. L-NP support is now significantly higher than their February low of only 45% when voters were not impressed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Government’s handling of the bushfires.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-19

Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating has increased by 11.5pts to 104.5 following the L-NP’s victory at the Federal Election in mid-May. Interviewing conducted on the weekends of 22-23 and 29-30 June 2019 shows that 43.5% (up 6%) of electors now say that Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’, and 39% (down 5.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’. The turnaround in Government Confidence since the Federal Election has been driven by strong increases in Government Confidence amongst a number of key demographics, including L-NP supporters and supporters of Independents/Others, electors in Country Areas, electors in Queensland and Western Australia, electors aged 50+ and electors of both genders. However, Government Confidence amongst ALP supporters has fallen 14.5pts to 84 after the party lost an election most Australians expected it to win.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

How to fix Australian polling

Original article by John Utting
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 54 : 23-May-19

Australia’s polling industry requires ‘root and branch’ reform in the wake of the federal election, with public opinion polls consistently showing that Labor was set to win. The question arises as to whether these polls have had a pro-Labor bias for the last several years, rather than just during the election campaign. The polling industry needs to ensure that their samples are more representative of the population, even though this will be more expensive. There must also be greater transparency regarding the methodology used and the number of people who were polled. Polling companies must also disclose any potential conflicts of interest; Galaxy YouGov Research, for example, produced public opinion polls during the election while also undertaking Labor’s internal polling.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, GALAXY YOUGOV RESEARCH, NEWSPOLL

Scott Morrison wins surprise Federal Election

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-May-19

Saturday’s Federal Election results shows the L-NP Government will likely be returned with a small majority. Analysis of the polls show all polls significantly underestimated the L-NP primary vote. The Roy Morgan Poll a week before the Federal Election had L-NP support at 38.5% – 2.9% lower than their actual vote of 41.4%. Roy Morgan throughout the election campaign period showed from survey data that: The Federal Election would be close – even a ‘Hung Parliament’ was possible. There will be many views and reasons posed for why Saturday’s election result was a victory for the Morrison led L-NP. The question still to be answered is whether: All polls were wrong in underestimating the L-NP (38.5% vs. 41.4%) vote during the whole election campaign (the Trump Factor), or did electors change their minds in the last week – after the death of former ALP Prime Minister Bob Hawke (much loved) and Shorten who on the last day raised the ‘ghost’ of Gough Whitlam ignoring electors concerns of bad economic news resulting in a fall in the $AUD and the escalation of the US/China ‘trade war’. Morrison never changed his message that a Coalition Government would ‘Cut taxes’ while Labor would ‘Increase tax’ on Incomes, Capital gains and ‘Super’, eliminate Franking credits and cut Negative gearing. The revenue raised would then be used to increase wages and massive Government spending on Health, Education and other areas including ‘Climate Change’. Morrison refused to be drawn into the debate on ‘Climate Change’ like Fraser in 1975 refused to be drawn into the debate on the ‘Dismissal’ – both issues having no relevance to ‘day-to-day’ living costs which easily concerned the electorate the most – as it did in 1975. While preferences from One Nation (vote 3%) and Palmer’s United Australian Party (vote 3.4%) enabled the Coalition to win sufficient seats to retain Government the ALP vote was at a low 33.9% – down 1.1% on the last Federal Election. View full release here.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Two-thirds of Australians think the ALP is set to win tomorrow’s Federal Election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted over the last few days shows a large majority of 66% of Australian electors think the ALP will win this week’s Federal Election compared to only 34% that think the L-NP Coalition will win. ALP supporters are particularly confident with 81% saying they think the ALP will win, while a bare majority of 53% of L-NP supporters think the L-NP will win. Greens supporters are even more confident about an ALP victory with 84% expecting an ALP victory while 64.5% of supporters of Independents/Others expect an ALP win. Young Australians are more confident of an ALP victory than their older peers with 80% of 18-24 year olds expecting an ALP victory compared to 74.5% of 25-34 year olds, 65% of 35-49 year olds, 61.5% of 50-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+ years old. Click here for full details

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

The Greens are hoping for a big election. But who are they?

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-19

Australians head to an important Federal Election this week, with the latest Roy Morgan Polls showing the ALP 51% with a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. Support for the Greens was at 11% in the Roy Morgan Poll conducted on May 4/5. The close results from the latest Roy Morgan Polls mean there is a very good chance Australia could once again elect a hung Parliament. The Greens achieved a record high vote of 13.1% in the Senate and 11.8% in the House of Representatives at the 2010 Federal Election. Has the composition of Greens support changed since 2010? Greens supporters are concentrated in the highest socio-economic quintiles with 31% of Greens supporters in the highest socio-economic AB quintile in 2018, unchanged from 2010, and 24% of Greens supporters in the C quintile, also unchanged. Although Greens supporter distribution by socio-economic quintile is largely unchanged from 2010 there are underlying changes in the composition of Greens support. Women now comprise 59% of Greens supporters, up from 54% in 2010, while men now comprise only 41% of Greens supporters, down from 46% at the start of the decade. Meanwhile, an increasing proportion of Greens supporters today are in the younger age groups.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine analyses the boost in support for the ALP a week before the Federal Election

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

The ALP campaign launch last week with a message of unity has helped provide a ‘boost’ in ALP support with under a week to go until the Federal Election. The ALP 52% now holds an election winning lead over the L-NP 48% on a two-party preferred basis. In addition Bill Shorten’s good week came as many Australians felt sympathy for Shorten after he described the struggles his mother had endured to undertake her dream of completing a law degree. A front-page headline in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph which sought to attack Shorten for drawing on his mother’s story only served to highlight his mother’s achievements to a wider audience. Shorten also had two successful leadership debates with Prime Minister Scott Morrison including a quick-witted put-down of Morrison as a ‘classic space invader’ during the second leader’s debate and a solid performance in the third, and final, leader’s debate last Wednesday. In calculating the two-party preferred support the Roy Morgan Poll uses respondent’s stated preferences. While Greens supporters strongly preferences the ALP, other parties stated preferences are dividing fairly evenly between the ALP and L-NP and as many as one-in-four electors still haven’t made their mind up. However, most Australians believe the ALP will win the election with many polls for months showing the ALP well ahead of the Government. But will all the polls be proven wrong again like with the US Presidential Election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016? Most people believed Clinton would win and this belief was reflected by most of the American polls at the time.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS