Australians are divided over the Australian Open

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jan-21

A special Roy Morgan survey into attitudes regarding next month’s Australian Open shows Australians are split on what they think should happen with the Grand Slam tournament due to start in just over two weeks on Monday February 8. 36% want the Open to go ahead as planned, 18% want the event to be postponed for a week, 20% want the tournament played later in the year and 26% want the event to be cancelled altogether. On a State-by-State basis it is perhaps surprising that South Australians (42%) are the most in favour of the Australian Open ‘going ahead as planned’ next month. This is followed by Victorians (39%), people in New South Wales (38%) and Queenslanders (32%). There is little difference on the question between Melburnians (39%) and Country Victorians (40%).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Dump Albo call as heartland vote tanks

Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 : 18-Jan-21

The Construction. Forestry, Maritime, Mining & Energy Union’s national political organiser Elizabeth Doidge says Labor leader Anthony Albanese must be ousted ahead of the next election. This follows the release of polling on behalf of key building industry unions which suggests that Labor is set to lose the Hunter Valley electorates of Shortland and Paterson at the next election. Doidge says the polling, which was undertaken in November, shows that Labor cannot win the election with Albanese as its leader. She says Tanya Plibersek would make a "fantastic leader".

CORPORATES
CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Big swing to the ALP in Queensland in the final two weeks secures re-election as One Nation support drops

Original article by
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Nov-20

The Queensland ALP Government was re-elected as a continuing swing to the ALP in the final two weeks increased ALP primary support 4.9% since the 2017 Election to 40.3%. LNP support was up 2% to 35.7%. The increases came at the expense of One Nation which dropped 6.7% to 7%. The ALP swing was cemented as Premier Palaszczuk announced on October 30 the Queensland border would re-open to regional NSW from November 3 but remain closed to Greater Sydney and Victoria. The Roy Morgan Poll conducted on October 12-15, 2020 predicted swings to the ALP and LNP and a swing away from One Nation and showed a majority of Queenslanders in favour of Premier Palaszczuk’s hard border policy with NSW. [Click to view full article here]

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

L-NP (54%) widens lead over ALP (46%) in mid-August as Victoria and NSW grapple with second wave of COVID-19

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says support for the L-NP Federal Government (54%) is at its equal highest since the 2019 Federal Election, now well ahead of the ALP (46%) on a two-party preferred basis. Support for the LN-P has risen strongly in South Australia, NSW, Victoria and Queensland. The second wave of COVID-19 which began in Melbourne with a breach of hotel quarantine in late May has led to a Stage 4 lockdown in the city since early August with mandatory mask wearing enforced throughout Victoria for all residents. The good news is that since the Stage 4 lockdown began new cases of the virus have dropped significantly and are now at their lowest since early July. Looking forward, the extension of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker support packages until March 2021 has provided certainty to businesses dealing with the ongoing impact of the pandemic, and the example of NSW over the last seven weeks shows that the virus can be successfully managed.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jul-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explains: "The L-NP Government (51.5%, up 1% since June) leads the ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as a new wave of COVID-19 has forced the Melbourne metropolitan area back into lockdown. Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 9.5pts to 114.5 nationally from a month ago, but has fallen by a significant 16pts to only 104 in Victoria as other States have closed their borders to Victorians and the outbreak threatens the national economic recovery. In response the Federal Government has extended JobKeeper and JobSeeker until March 2021, however this has led to the forecast Federal Budget deficit blowing out to a record $186 billion for 2020/21."

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

L-NP (50.5%) holds narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) a week before the Eden-Monaro by-election

Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says "The L-NP Government (50.5%) has a narrow two-party preferred lead over the ALP (49.5%) ahead of next week’s Eden-Monaro by-election. Playing on the minds of local electors will be the response of PM Scott Morrison and the L-NP to the twin crises of 2020 – devastating bushfires in the summer and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Both have had a huge impact on Eden-Monaro with the destruction of forests and property and also halting tourism to the region for months. Morrison was widely criticised for his handling of the bushfires but has redeemed himself and the Government in response to the pandemic shown by the surge in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which has recovered from a record low of 80 during the bushfires and is now at a very high 124 in mid-June."

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

L-NP support jumps as Australia responds well to COVID-19 pandemic

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-20

In the last month support for the L-NP has jumped 4.5% and recovered from a poor response to the summer bushfires, according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll. L-NP 51.5% now leads the ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis following Government’s successful response to COVID-19 with now only a handful of new cases being announced. L-NP support is now significantly higher than their February low of only 45% when voters were not impressed by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Government’s handling of the bushfires.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-19

Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating has increased by 11.5pts to 104.5 following the L-NP’s victory at the Federal Election in mid-May. Interviewing conducted on the weekends of 22-23 and 29-30 June 2019 shows that 43.5% (up 6%) of electors now say that Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’, and 39% (down 5.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’. The turnaround in Government Confidence since the Federal Election has been driven by strong increases in Government Confidence amongst a number of key demographics, including L-NP supporters and supporters of Independents/Others, electors in Country Areas, electors in Queensland and Western Australia, electors aged 50+ and electors of both genders. However, Government Confidence amongst ALP supporters has fallen 14.5pts to 84 after the party lost an election most Australians expected it to win.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

How to fix Australian polling

Original article by John Utting
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 54 : 23-May-19

Australia’s polling industry requires ‘root and branch’ reform in the wake of the federal election, with public opinion polls consistently showing that Labor was set to win. The question arises as to whether these polls have had a pro-Labor bias for the last several years, rather than just during the election campaign. The polling industry needs to ensure that their samples are more representative of the population, even though this will be more expensive. There must also be greater transparency regarding the methodology used and the number of people who were polled. Polling companies must also disclose any potential conflicts of interest; Galaxy YouGov Research, for example, produced public opinion polls during the election while also undertaking Labor’s internal polling.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, GALAXY YOUGOV RESEARCH, NEWSPOLL

Scott Morrison wins surprise Federal Election

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-May-19

Saturday’s Federal Election results shows the L-NP Government will likely be returned with a small majority. Analysis of the polls show all polls significantly underestimated the L-NP primary vote. The Roy Morgan Poll a week before the Federal Election had L-NP support at 38.5% – 2.9% lower than their actual vote of 41.4%. Roy Morgan throughout the election campaign period showed from survey data that: The Federal Election would be close – even a ‘Hung Parliament’ was possible. There will be many views and reasons posed for why Saturday’s election result was a victory for the Morrison led L-NP. The question still to be answered is whether: All polls were wrong in underestimating the L-NP (38.5% vs. 41.4%) vote during the whole election campaign (the Trump Factor), or did electors change their minds in the last week – after the death of former ALP Prime Minister Bob Hawke (much loved) and Shorten who on the last day raised the ‘ghost’ of Gough Whitlam ignoring electors concerns of bad economic news resulting in a fall in the $AUD and the escalation of the US/China ‘trade war’. Morrison never changed his message that a Coalition Government would ‘Cut taxes’ while Labor would ‘Increase tax’ on Incomes, Capital gains and ‘Super’, eliminate Franking credits and cut Negative gearing. The revenue raised would then be used to increase wages and massive Government spending on Health, Education and other areas including ‘Climate Change’. Morrison refused to be drawn into the debate on ‘Climate Change’ like Fraser in 1975 refused to be drawn into the debate on the ‘Dismissal’ – both issues having no relevance to ‘day-to-day’ living costs which easily concerned the electorate the most – as it did in 1975. While preferences from One Nation (vote 3%) and Palmer’s United Australian Party (vote 3.4%) enabled the Coalition to win sufficient seats to retain Government the ALP vote was at a low 33.9% – down 1.1% on the last Federal Election. View full release here.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY