PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

Top 10 Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime on the Rise, Climate Change Fades

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

Roy Morgan’s in-depth survey data covering the last few years highlights the key issues gaining importance for Australian electors as we approach the Federal Election. Cost-of-living increasingly dominates voter concerns with several related issues rising significantly since the Federal Election in mid-2022. The most important issue for electors is clearly ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ (up 7% points to 57%). ‘Keeping interest rates down’ (up 8% points to 19%) and ‘Managing immigration and population growth’ (surging 8% points to 14%) have also increased. The sharp rise in immigration-related concerns is during a period in which Australia has had record high immigration and housing affordability issues have been at the forefront. At the same time, public anxiety about safety has escalated significantly with ‘Reducing crime and maintaining law and order’ jumping 10% points to 23% – the largest increase for any issue. In contrast, there are two issues that have fallen rapidly in importance: ‘Global warming and climate change’ is down 9% points to 23% and ‘Open and honest government’ is down 6% points to 19%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says understanding how electors feel about issues is critical as Federal Election approaches

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-25

Australians are shifting their focus on what are the ‘Issues of most importance’ ahead of this year’s Federal Election. The rising focus on cost-of-living pressures – spanning day-to-day expenses, interest rates, and housing affordability – reflects a growing urgency among voters to address financial strain, making it the defining issue of this election cycle. Concern about ‘reducing crime’ has surged around Australia and for supporters of all major parties, especially in Queensland, doubling from 16% to 32%, in Victoria, with a rise from 14% to 26% and in the NT, up 13% to 33%. In Victoria, new State Liberal Leader Brad Battin faces his first electoral test in early February in the Labor Government-held seat of Werribee. Battin is a former policeman, like Federal Coalition Leader Peter Dutton, and will be hoping his tough reputation will add momentum to the Liberal Party’s campaign to win the seat.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition lead over ALP strengthens in mid-January: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-25

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with a marginally improved two-party preferred vote from last week: L-NP 52% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 48% (down 0.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Primary support for the Coalition increased 1.5% to 42% at the expense of the ALP, down 1.5% to 28.5%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13%, One Nation was down 0.5% to 4%, Other Parties were up 0.5% to 4% while Independents dropped 0.5% to 8.5%. The rising level of anti-Semitic attacks has raised questions about how seriously the Albanese Government is taking the issue. The Coalition is clearly benefiting from the strong stance it has taken in condemning these actions forthrightly and consistently under Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition lead over ALP narrows in mid-January: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jan-25

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with two-party preferred vote narrowing from last week: L-NP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged at 40.5% and remains well ahead of the ALP on 30% (down 1%). Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 12.5% – and their preferences shifted decisively in favour of the ALP this week after a closer than usual Greens preference split a week ago favoured the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote. Support for One Nation rebounded 1% to 4.5%, Other Parties were unchanged at 3.5% while support for Independents dropped 0.5% to 9%. On a State-based level the Coalition has retained its lead in Victoria, after the Coalition leadership change in that State, and also leads in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition lead over ALP narrows in mid-January: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jan-25

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with two-party preferred vote narrowing from last week: L-NP 51.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1.5%), the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Primary support for the Coalition was unchanged at 40.5% and remains well ahead of the ALP on 30% (down 1%). Support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 12.5% – and their preferences shifted decisively in favour of the ALP this week after a closer than usual Greens preference split a week ago favoured the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote. Support for One Nation rebounded 1% to 4.5%, Other Parties were unchanged at 3.5% while support for Independents dropped 0.5% to 9%. On a State-based level the Coalition has retained its lead in Victoria, after the Coalition leadership change in that State, and also leads in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition boosts primary support and retains clear two-party preferred lead for Christmas: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-24

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with the two-party preferred vote unchanged from last week: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 41% – the highest since the last Federal Election and came at the expense of One Nation 5% (down 1.5%), and drops in support for the ALP 27.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 12.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties 3.5% (down 0.5%) which all lost support. Support for Independents remained steady at 10.5%. The rise in Coalition primary came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged and the Coalition outlined its energy plan to bring in nuclear power and lower energy costs.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition boosts primary support and retains clear two-party preferred lead for Christmas: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-24

A Coalition Government, with a slim majority, would now win a Federal Election with the two-party preferred vote unchanged from last week: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. Primary support for the Coalition increased 3% to 41% – the highest since the last Federal Election and came at the expense of One Nation 5% (down 1.5%), and drops in support for the ALP 27.5% (down 0.5%), Greens 12.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties 3.5% (down 0.5%) which all lost support. Support for Independents remained steady at 10.5%. The rise in Coalition primary came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged and the Coalition outlined its energy plan to bring in nuclear power and lower energy costs.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition increases lead: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Dec-24

A Coalition Government, with a slim two-party preferred majority: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48% would now win a Federal Election, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. The rise in Coalition support came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticised the Albanese Government’s approach to Israel and accused the Government of taking an ‘extreme anti-Israeli position’. Netanyahu blamed the arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue – now classified as a terrorist act – on the Government’s failure to call out antisemitism more consistently and firmly. In addition, a major strike by Woolworths workers led to shortages of key goods at many stores of Australia’s largest supermarket as Australians battle a cost of living crisis.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Poll: Coalition regains two-party preferred lead after Albanese Government does deals with the Greens to pass legislation

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-24

Coalition 51% (up 2%) are now ahead of the ALP 49% (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’ the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. As we said a week ago, when leaders meet world leaders there is often a short-term ‘boost’, but this usually proves short-lived as voters return to focusing on the ‘bread and butter’ issues. At home the Government did several deals last week – including several ‘deals’ with the Greens – to pass legislation. The Greens’ ‘deals’ included RBA governance reforms, a supermarket code of conduct, the Future Made in Australia scheme and housing reforms to boost rental supply – despite this ‘success’ Government support returned to where it was before Albanese met World leaders in South America at the APEC and G20 meetings.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Roy Morgan Poll: ALP regains two-party preferred lead over the Coalition in late November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Nov-24

ALP support at 51%, up 2% points from a week ago, is now narrowly ahead of the Coalition 49% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travelled to the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation and Group of 20 leadership forums in South America. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be ‘too close to call’, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds. The close result this week, and the large size of the crossbench (currently 16 seats) means the ALP or Coalition would require the support of minor parties and independents to form government. ALP primary support recovered this week, up 2.5% to 31.5% at the expense of the Coalition, down 2% to 37%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 12.5%, One Nation was unchanged at 6.5%, Other Parties were down 0.5% to 4% and Independents increased 1% to 8.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20)