PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – UNITED STATES

You’re fired: result shows the limits of the forecasters

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 11-Nov-16

Most public opinion polls had pointed to Hillary Clinton winning the US presidential election. Principal Global Investors’ Mark Farrington likens polling methods to the trading models used in financial market, noting that they both rely on historical predictions. In the case of Donald Trump’s election victory, and the Brexit vote earlier in 2016, traditional models did not reflect the forces that influenced voting trends. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied and bond yields rose in response to Trump’s election victory.

CORPORATES
PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS, UBS O’CONNOR LLC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Trump’s surge spooks markets

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cameron Stewart, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 10 : 3-Nov-16

Sharemarkets in Australia and Asia were sold down on 2 November 2016, after an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed that US presidential candidate Donald Trump now has a one percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. The RealClear Politics average of polls also shows that Trump has significantly narrowed Clinton’s lead in the last week. Westpac economists have warned that a Trump victory could have a bigger impact on global financial markets than the UK’s Brexit referendum.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)