REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

IMF warns on housing slide

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 8-Apr-19

The International Monetary Fund is expected to downgrade its forecast for the Australian economy in its latest World Economic Outlook. Thomas Helbling, the IMF’s lead economist for Australia, warns that the nation’s housing market downturn has been more severe than anticipated and it has occured sooner than expected. He says the property market downturn will need to be offset via government policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as increased investment in infrastructure. Helbling has also raised the possibility of interest rate cuts.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Top 10 housing stress seats all held by Labor

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 1-Apr-19

Labor is hoping to make housing more affordable if it wins the federal election by implementing changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax regimes. Analysis conducted by the National Centre for Social & Economic Modelling indicates that the 10 electorates with the highest level of housing stress are all held by Labor, while Digital Finance Analytics estimates that the number of households facing mortgage stress now exceeds one million. The NATSEM analysis also indicates that Labor holds eight of the 10 seats with the highest level of poverty.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA. NATIONAL CENTRE FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC MODELLING, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Property tax crackdown from Jan 1

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Mar-19

Labor is set to announce that its proposed changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax regimes will take effect from the start of January 2020 if it wins the federal election. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen will state on 29 March that this will give investors sufficient time to prepare for the reforms, which Labor had initially flagged more than three years ago. Labor’s reforms would most likely require the support of at least two independents in the upper house, in addition to the Greens.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, FINANCIAL SERVICES COUNCIL

SQM urges phasing in of gearing reforms

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 & 38 : 21-Mar-19

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says Labor should implement its proposed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms gradually if it wins the federal election, to avoid a "shock" to the broader economy. Research by SQM suggests that Labor’s reforms could potentially result in a 12 per cent decline in residential property prices over three years, while rents could rise sharply as supply is reduced. SQM adds that two official interest rate cuts by January 2020 would see housing prices fall by just 4-8 over three years, as well as lower rent increases.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Greens’ $20m man now says no more tax breaks

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Original article by Chip Le Grand, Christine Lacy
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 15-Mar-19

Prominent barrister and Greens candidate Julian Burnside has declined to disclose whether he used negative gearing to build a property portfolio that is estimated to be worth about $20m. The Greens want to abolish negative gearing on all future residential property purchases, while its policy would restrict existing investors to negatively gearing just one property. Burnside says it is not fair that the system benefits wealthy people such as himself at the expense of first-home buyers. The Greens policies will not affect his investment portfolio.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MELBOURNE SAVAGE CLUB, MARITIME UNION OF AUSTRALIA, PATRICK STEVEDORES HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Rate cuts, not supply, the key to house prices

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 12-Mar-19

Reserve Bank of Australia analysts Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip have concluded that monetary policy has the biggest impact on house prices and the level of construction activity. They argue that historically low interest rates have been the major driver of rising house prices in recent years, while factors such as construction costs and population growth have had a smaller impact. In contrast, RBA governor Philip Lowe recently suggested that housing supply has been the major influence on prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Tax rules in limbo leave expats on a knife-edge

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 25-Feb-19

The federal government announced in the May 2017 Budget that it would remove a capital gains tax exemption for non-resident Australians who sell their main home while overseas. The government has given non-resident Australians until 30 June to sell their home under existing rules, although legislation to enact the measure is yet to pass into law, while Labor has indicated that it may amend the measures if it wins the 2019 election. Expatriates are in a dilemma, not knowing whether the new laws will come into effect, but many are selling their property anyway, at a time when the housing market is in decline.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, SOTHEBY’S AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Reality bites for million-dollar club

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott, Remy Varga
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 15-Feb-19

New data shows that just 649 suburbs across Australia now boast a median house price of $1m, compared with 741 in January 2018. There are now 366 suburbs in New South Wales where the median price exceeds $1m, while there are 129 such suburbs in Victoria. Nerida Conisbee, the chief economist at realestate.com.au, says price rises in recent years were unsustainable and some suburbs simply did not belong in the million-dollar price bracket.

CORPORATES
REALESTATE.COM.AU, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Reforms to help protect buyers

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 11-Feb-19

State and territory building ministers agreed to a ban on the use of unsafe aluminium composite panels in new apartment buildings at a Council of Australian Governments meeting on 8 February. However, the meeting did not define "unsafe". The meeting also agreed that builders have an ongoing duty of care to apartment owners to provide a building that meets required building code standards, and that builders will face extra liability if their buildings do not comply with such standards.

CORPORATES
COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENTS, HIGH COURT OF AUSTRALIA, OWNERS CORPORATION NETWORK OF AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF NEW SOUTH WALES PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN SYDNEY, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Housing lot defaults hit 25 per cent as finance hard to secure

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 7-Feb-19

Satterley Property Group CEO Nigel Satterley says the default rate among buyers of housing lots in Melbourne is now 20 to 25 per cent, compared with just five per cent in late 2017. He adds that Perth and Sydney boast default rates of around 35 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. Satterley attributes the high level of defaults to factors such as tightened access to credit for both local and overseas buyers. Simonds Group CEO Kelvin Ryan notes that there has been a spike in the number of housing lots that are been offered for sale on the secondary market.

CORPORATES
THE SATTERLEY PROPERTY GROUP PTY LTD, SIMONDS GROUP LIMITED – ASX SIO, OLIVER HUME REAL ESTATE GROUP PTY LTD, RED23 PTY LTD, GUMTREE.COM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD