REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

Apartment prices to come under pressure

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Jan-19

BIS Oxford Economics estimates that 17,000 additional high-rise apartments will hit the Melbourne market in 2019, compared with 13,500 in 2018. Likewise, some 26,300 apartments in Sydney are expected to be completed in 2019, down from 28,000 in the previous year. The large number of apartments coming onto the market is expected to put further pressure on prices, while Angie Zigomanis of BIS notes that there may also be an increase in vacancy rates and a corresponding fall in rents.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WORLD CLASS LAND (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ASPIAL CORPORATION LIMITED

Chinese look to exit unit projects

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Original article by Lisa Allen, Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 4-Jan-19

Many Chinese property developers are seeking to divest residential development sites on Australia’s east coast due to factors such as difficulty in securing financing and a decline in demand for apartments. Matrix founder Andrew Antonas says many sites that have scope for 300 to 400 apartments and are located within 15-20km of the Sydney CBD have been put on the market. However, he notes that smaller sites with a capacity of up to 200 apartments and the same distance from the CBD are being retained by developers. Mark Wizel of CBRE expects more Chinese developers to shift their focus to investing in local shopping centres.

CORPORATES
MATRIX PROPERTY GROUP PTY LTD, CBRE PTY LTD, SHIMAO PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED, DALIAN WANDA GROUP COMPANY LIMITED, HNA GROUP, HPG, HAILIANG, YUHU GROUP (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC

Open loan books, banks told

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Jan-19

The national dwelling price fell by 4.8 per cent in 2018, according to data from CoreLogic, with prices in Sydney and Melbourne falling by 8.9 per cent and seven per cent respectively. Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the nation’s banks must continue to provide home buyers with access to credit, adding that Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms would deepen the downturn in the housing market. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects house prices in Sydney and Melbourne to fall by another 10 per cent in 2019.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, FINDER.COM.AU, BANKWEST, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Labor’s spending plans could hit a wall

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 13-Dec-18

Labor plans to increase tax revenue by about $30bn over four years if it wins the 2019 federal election, and by nearly $280bn over a decade. However, the majority of Senate crossbenchers oppose Labor’s key tax policy initiatives, including its negative gearing reforms and the abolition of cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits. Analysis suggests that Labor’s tax revenue would be up to $19bn lower than forecast if the Senate were to reject its key tax measures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATIVES, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Leading researcher pours cold water over link between property prices and the economy

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Original article by
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 12-Dec-18

Australian house prices have fallen 9.5 per cent from their peak in July 2017, and some economists have forecast a peak-to-trough decline of up to 15 per cent. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine discusses the outlook for residential property prices on Radio National. She says the recent downturn in house prices is primarily due to stricter lending criteria rather than a decline in demand for housing. Levine also discusses issues such as mortgage stress and whether a fall in house prices has an impact on consumer confidence.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Labor’s tax grab faces Senate block

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 12-Dec-18

Labor may not have sufficient support in the Senate for its proposal to abolish cash refunds for excess dividend imputation credits if it wins the 2019 federal election. Labor would require the support of the Greens and four crossbenchers to pass the reforms before the current Senate is dissolved on 30 June. However, nine of the 10 crossbenchers oppose the policy, with Fraser Anning describing it as a "socialist retiree tax". In addition, none of the current senators support Labor’s proposal to restrict negative gearing to new homes, although some favour capping the number of properties that can be negatively geared.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE

Affordability issue persists in spite of falls

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 7-Dec-18

The proportion of income needed to meet mortgage repayments fell by 0.8 per cent Australia-wide in the September quarter, according to the latest Adelaide Bank/REIA Housing Affordability Report. However, despite falling house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, housing affordability is down when compared to 2017. UBS has suggested that a looming credit crunch and more stringent lending conditions could restrict future buyers to loans that are no more than six times their household income; this means housing affordability may not improve even if house prices continue to fall.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ADELAIDE BANK

One-year delay likely for negative gearing changes

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 6-Dec-18

It is unlikely that Labor would be able to legislate its proposed negative gearing reforms in time for the start of the 2019-20 financial year if it wins the next federal election. The poll is tipped to be held on 11 or 18 May 2019, which would give a Labor government just six weeks to enact its reforms for them to take effect on 1 July. This means the reforms would most likely take effect in July 2020, although a Labor source has raised the possibility that the legislation could be backdated if it is passed after 1 July.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ONE NATION PARTY

House prices to dive 10pc more: Ellerston

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 5-Dec-18

Brett Gillespie of Ellerston Capital is bearish about the outlook for Australia’s residential property market, forecasting that house prices will eventually fall by an additional 10 per cent. He adds that this could occur much more rapidly if Labor wins the 2019 federal election and implements its proposed changes to the negative gearing regime. Gillespie says a 4-5 per cent fall in house prices would be necessary to 4 to 5 per cent to offset the impact of the negative gearing reforms.

CORPORATES
ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Housing drop near worst on record

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 3 : 30-Nov-18

Data from CoreLogic shows that residential property prices in Sydney have fallen by 1.3 per cent so far in November, the biggest monthly decline in 14 years. The firm now expects Sydney house prices to fall by 15 per cent from their peak. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the outlook for the housing market is unlikely to improve in the near-term, although he does not anticipate an increase in distressed sales. Meanwhile, Housing Industry Association data shows that sales of new homes fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in the three months to October.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ