REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

House prices about 30pc inflated with a loan cap

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 38 : 16-Oct-18

Modelling by LF Economics suggests that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne could be "overinflated" by up to 30 per cent if mortgage loans were capped at 30 per cent of household income. Other capital city house prices are not as inflated under LF Economics’ modelling, which used data from CoreLogic and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The modelling is line with other forecasts that Sydney and Melbourne house prices are set to continue to decline.

CORPORATES
LF ECONOMICS, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BRONTE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, VARIANT PERCEPTION

House prices tipped to fall faster as tighter credit rules hit buyers

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 15-Oct-18

Sydney’s residential property market boasted a preliminary auction clearance rate of 52 per cent in the week ended 13 October, compared with a preliminary clearance rate of 53.5 per cent for the previous week. The preliminary clearance rate in Melbourne was 52.1 per cent, down from 54.4 per cent previously. The national preliminary clearance rate was also lower than the previous week, and Maria Magrin of Belle Property says prospective buyers are finding it harder to secure credit prior to auction.

CORPORATES
BELLE PROPERTY PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

386,000 mortgage holders have no real equity in their homes

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Oct-18

New research from Roy Morgan shows that 8.9% (386,000) of mortgage holders in Australia have little or no real equity in their home, an increase from 8.0% twelve months ago. This is based on the fact that the value of their home is only equal to or less than the amount they still owe, placing them at considerable risk if they have to sell while prices are trending down. Western Australia is the state at the highest risk, with 16.5% (90,000) of mortgage customers having no real equity in their home, an increase of 2.5% in the last year. New South Wales has the lowest proportion of mortgage holders with little or no equity in their home, at only 6.1% (82,000). These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, which is based on over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own homes, including more than 10,000 with owner- occupied mortgage holders.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Morgan Stanley fears 15pc house price fall

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 21 : 12-Oct-18

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned that residential property prices in Australia could potentially decline by 10-15 per cent. It had previously forecast a fall of just 5-10 per cent in house prices. Morgan Stanley says a pullback of the magnitude it now forecasts would have a flow-on effect across the economy, including a rise in the official unemployment rate to eight per cent. The firm also says the earnings of companies with exposure to the residential property sector would be hit.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

IMF warns on debt and high house prices

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 11-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global financial stability report notes that Australia is one of several advanced economies where the rising cost of house prices is a concern. The IMF also expressed concern that the household debt-to-GDP ratio is rising in Australia and a number of other countries. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 122 per cent, while the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio is close to 200 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

New home sales have fallen 27pc from their 2014 peak, HIA says

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 5-Oct-18

The Housing Industry Association has reported that new home sales posted a 2.9 per cent month-on-month decline in August, following a 3.1 per cent fall in July. New home sales fell by 7.3 per cent in New South Wales and by 7.1 per cent in Victoria, although Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia all recorded increases. New home sales are now down 27.1 per cent since their April 2014 peak, while the HIA is tipping that new home construction will fall by 10.6 per cent in 2019.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Expats urge rethink of draconian CGT plan

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Original article by Tom McIlroy, Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 4-Oct-18

Tax experts are concerned about the federal government’s proposal to abolish the capital gains tax exemption for expatriates who sell their main residence in Australia. They have warned that the proposed reforms could potentially apply retrospectively from 1985, when CGT was introduced. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has also expressed concern about the "unintended consequences" of the proposed reforms, which were announced in the May 2017 Budget as part of the government’s strategy to address the issue of housing affordability.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CENTRE ALLIANCE, ST JAMES’S PLACE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, THE HONG KONG GENERAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

Top-end markets bear the brunt

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Oct-18

CoreLogic’s latest data indicate that there is greater resilience in the more affordable segments of Australia’s residential property market. House prices in the bottom quarter of the Melbourne market rose by 4.1 per cent year-on-year, while they fell by just 3.3 per cent in Sydney’s bottom quartile. However, prices in Sydney and Melbourne’s top quartiles fell by 8.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent respectively. Tim Lawless of Corelogic says demand is becoming focused on the more affordable housing segments as banks become more cautious about borrowers taking on too much debt.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE

ME boss tips two years of house price weakness

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 25-Sep-18

ME Bank has reported a statutory net profit of $89.1m, which is 43.9 per cent higher than previously, while its underlying earnings rose 13 per cent to $96.5m. CEO Jamie McPhee does not expect a significant fall in house prices, although he says prices are likely to ease slightly over the next two years. McPhee adds that the revelations of the banking royal commission do not appear to have had much impact on ME Bank’s customer numbers and deposit inflows.

CORPORATES
ME BANK, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Sydney to lead subsidence in house prices, says Moody’s

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 18-Sep-18

Moody’s Analytics has forecast a 1.6 per cent fall in housing prices across Australia in 2018. The firm expects house prices in Sydney to decline by 5.1 per cent overall, although some suburbs will record larger declines while others will record growth. House prices in Melbourne are forecast to rise by 0.3 per cent in 2018, with Brisbane tipped to record growth of 1.5 per cent and prices in Perth to fall by 1.9 per cent. The forecasts are based on historical data from CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORRELL AND KOREN BUYERS’ ADVOCATES