REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

House prices are falling faster than expected

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 3-Jul-18

The ANZ Bank predicted in March that Australian house prices would rise by two per cent over the course of 2018, but it now expects a decline of four per cent. The bank also expects house prices to fall by two per cent in 2019. National Australia Bank is also more pessimistic about the housing market than it was in March, while Paul Dale of Capital Economics notes that the banking royal commission has already seen banks tighten their lending standards. He says house prices could potentially fall by about five per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL, LAZARD PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Sydney prices end 2017-18 down 5pc

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 2-Jul-18

Figures to be released by Corelogic on 2 July are expected to show that Sydney house prices fell by around five per cent in the 2017-18 financial year. Melbourne house prices are tipped to have remained almost flat, while dwelling values in the five main capital city markets are expected to have declined by nearly two per cent. Preliminary figures indicate that the national auction clearance rate for the weekend of 30 June-1 July was 56.7 per cent, compared with a clearance rate of 67.3 per cent for the corresponding period in 2017.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BELLE PROPERTY PTY LTD

End in sight for housing slump

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Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Jun-18

Data from the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Home Value Index shows that house prices across Australia are expected to fall by 0.5 per cent in 2018, following 8.6 per cent growth in 2017. House prices in Sydney will fall by almost five per cent in 2018, although a rebound is expected in 2019. Meanwhile, a 1.5 per cent downturn in Melbourne house is expected in 2018, with prices in Perth forecast to fall by 0.5 per cent. However, house prices in Brisbane will rise by 1.4 per cent.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Housing outlook dims amid forecasts of falling prices

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Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 20-Jun-18

The ANZ Bank expects house prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall around 10 per cent by the end of 2019. Senior economist Daniel Gradwell adds that a fall of about four per cent nationally is now expected in 2018, followed by a two per cent decline in 2019. He notes that ANZ had previously forecast a modest rise in house prices in both years. Gradwell also says the Reserve Bank is likely to leave the cash rate on hold until the second half of 2019 due to the outlook for the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Labor tax plan would hit home prices

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 12-Jun-18

RiskWise Property Research and Wargent Advisory have modelled the possible impact of Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing on house prices. They found that the changes could lead to house price falls of up to 12 per cent in some parts of Australia, including Townsville and Mackay. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall by nine per cent. With house prices already shaky, the property sector is urging Labor to scrap its plans. However, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has rejected this suggestion.

CORPORATES
RISKWISE PROPERTY RESEARCH, WARDENT ADVISORY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Sydney market is 45pc overvalued

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 8-May-18

SQM Research had forecast in October that Sydney house prices would rise by between four and eight per cent in 2018. However, it now predicts that house prices could fall by as much as four per cent. SQM now expects house prices in Melbourne to decline by up to three per cent in 2018, compared to its previous forecast for growth between seven and 12 per cent. SQM contends that Sydney’s housing market is overvalued by around 45 per cent.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Foreign money needed for build-to-rent funds, says EY

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 1-May-18

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison announced restrictions on the purchase of residential property by managed investment trusts in September 2017. Luke McIntosh of Ernst & Young claimed at a property forum on 30 April that the restrictions make it hard to attract the foreign capital needed to get the build-to-rent sector off the ground in Australia. Build-to-rent involves the development of housing from which investors make their profit by retaining it for renters rather than selling it.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, ERNST AND YOUNG, SALTA PROPERTIES PTY LTD

Stress test reveals risk for Australian banks

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 28 : 1-May-18

Fitch Ratings’ mortgage "stress test" of Australia’s major banks shows that they could be vulnerable if a sharp downturn in the housing market were accompanied by a decline in consumer spending and an increase in business lending losses. Fitch warns that a sharp rise in the unemployment rate could trigger a housing market slump, but the ratings agency concludes that the four major banks could withstand such a downturn provided that other key metrics were not affected.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Sydney, Melbourne prices to fall 5pc

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 10-Apr-18

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver forecasts that the median house price in both Melbourne and Sydney will decline by around five per cent in 2018. He expects a further downturn in house prices in 2019, although he adds that factors such as population growth and stricter lending standards will prevent a nationwide price crash. Meanwhile, analysis by valuer Herron Todd White suggests that Melbourne is the only mainland capital where apartment prices have not yet peaked.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, HERRON TODD WHITE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Keep home-building level high, association says

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 9-Apr-18

The Housing Industry Association notes that 2016 was a record year for new house construction, with 230,000 being built, and that this rate of construction needs to be maintained for the next two decades. The HIA states this level of construction is needed to meet demand levels and to help maintain housing affordability. The HIA also wants immigration levels to be maintained, in order to offset the impact of Australia’s ageing population and falling birth rates.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED