REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

Higher rates are unlikely to erase house price gains

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 15-Jun-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices rose by 2.3 per cent nationally over the last three months, including 1.2 per cent in May. HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says factors such as rising interest rates and a slowing economy may affect the pace of growth in house prices but are unlikely to see the market retreat. The ANZ Bank’s senior economist Felicity Emmett notes that factors such as limited supply and strong demand due to immigration is putting upward pressure on housing prices, and this is likely to continue in the near-term.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

‘Scary’: Mortgage costs reach critical threshold

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 7-Jun-23

SQM Research’s MD Louis Christopher says the probability of a ‘double dip’ downturn in Australia’s housing market has increased to more than 60 per cent following the Reserve Bank’s decision to increase the cash rate to 4.1 per cent. He notes that SQM’s research in late 2022 found that loan book managers identified a cash rate of about four per cent as the ‘line in the sand’ where many homeowners may be forced to sell. Christopher notes that the number of distressed listings is still quite low, but cautions that this may change as the full impact of the recent rate rises flows through to mortgage holders.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Shrinking pipeline for attached homes hits hard

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 31-May-23

The latest official building approvals data highlights the growing supply crisis in Australia’s housing market. The figure show that just 3,545 new apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes were approved in April, which is the lowest level since January 2012. Approvals for detached homes fell by 3.6 per cent month-on-month to 8,049. A total of 11,594 dwellings of all types were approved in April, which is an 11-year low. Maree Kilroy of Oxford Economics Australia says a sharp downturn is under way and the firm does not expect dwelling approvals to rebound until late 2024.

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OXFORD ECONOMICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Rate pause to spur buyers back into market

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 5-Apr-23

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says the firm believes that the cash rate has peaked following the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave it on hold at 3.6 per cent on Tuesday. He adds that the widely-anticipated rate pause could prompt buyers to return to the housing market, including renters and investors. Christopher adds that house prices could rise by 3-7 per cent nationwide in 2023 if the cash rate remains on hold. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic agrees that the rate pause could encourage vendors and buyers to return to the market.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Bank of mum and dad the biggest factor in young Australians entering property market, research finds

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Original article by Abhranil Hazra
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 22-Mar-23

Research undertaken by the Australian Housing & Urban Research Institute shows that financial assistance from their family has become crucial for many younger Australians to buy their own home. The research found that some 40 per cent of Australians in the 25-34 age group expect to rely on money from their parents to help them to buy a home. Lead researcher Laurence Troy says people without access to such financial support could potentially be locked out of home ownership. The survey also found that unstable and low incomes are a major hurdle to saving for a house deposit.

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AUSTRALIAN HOUSING AND URBAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Fall in house prices stalls but reprieve may be short-lived

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Original article by Rachel Clun, Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 1-Mar-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that home values fell by just 0.14 per cent nationwide in February, which is the lowest decline since the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase the cash rate in May 2022. Sydney was the only capital city to record a rise in house values in February, up 0.3 per cent; however, house values fell by less than 0.5 per cent in all other capitals except Hobart, which recorded a decline of 1.4 per cent. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic warns that the decline in house values may accelerate as the full impact of nine consecutive interest rate rises takes effect.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Target of million new homes by end of decade in jeopardy

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 6 : 7-Feb-23

Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn says the nation’s construction industry is not building enough new homes to meet demand. The MBA has forecast that just 169,630 new homes will be built nationwide in 2022-23, well below the 200,000 that are needed each year to meet population demand. The MBA does not expect the annual new home build to reach the 200,000 threshold until 2026-27. The MBA’s forecasts will cast doubt on the federal government’s target of one million new homes in the five years from July 2024.

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MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

Property tipped to drop 10pc

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 6 : 7-Feb-23

Cameron Kusher of PropTrack says the firm expects dwelling prices to fall by up to 10 per cent nationally in 2023. He says house prices in the largest capital cities are likely to fall the most, with a downturn of 8-11 per cent in Sydney and 7-10 per cent in Melbourne. Kusher adds that house prices in regional areas are also likely to fall, given that they have recorded stronger than capital cities and demand for homes in regional areas is slowing. PropTrack has factored in two interest rate rises in 2023, and Kusher says a rate cut late in the year is a "very real possibility".

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PROPTRACK PTY LTD

Home values drop in 80pc of suburbs

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 19-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that dwelling values fell in more than eight out of 10 suburbs across Australia in the last three months of 2022. Some 98 per cent of Sydney suburbs recorded a fall in house prices in the December quarter, down from 100 per cent in the September quarter; the value of units fell in 93.2 per cent of suburbs in the harbour city, compared with 95.7 per cent of suburbs in the September quarter. Likewise, house prices fell in 98.4 per cent of Melbourne suburbs (also down from 100 per cent in the three months to September), and unit values fell in 78.8 per cent of suburbs (down from 88.4 per cent in the previous quarter).

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House prices plunge 8.4pc from peak

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices have fallen by 8.4 per cent nationally since peaking in May. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says the sharp decline is primarily due to the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle, noting that interest rates have not increased so quickly in more than three decades. She anticipates a further market downturn in coming months, given that more interest rate rises are likely, and suggests that a double-digit fall in national house prices is possible. Sydney has recorded a 13 per cent fall in house prices, while prices in Melbourne are down 8.6 per cent peak-to-trough.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD