REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

Big cities tipped to lead fall in prices

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 3 : 25-Nov-21

SQM Research has forecast that growth in residential property prices will slow in the first quarter of 2022 before falling in the second half of the year. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says there are signs that the national housing market is nearing its peak, adding that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority could further intervene in the mortgage market as soon as December. SQM Research has also forecast that Sydney and Melbourne will record the biggest fall in house prices.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Rental affordability crisis looms as borders reopen

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 & 34 : 24-Nov-21

A report from JLL warns that demand for rental housing in Australia will exceed supply in the medium-term, as state and international borders reopen in the wake of the pandemic. Leigh Warner of JLL says there has been a lot of focus on housing affordability, but rental affordability is set to become a major issue. Demand for apartments in particular is expected to exceed supply in the next few years, with a seven per cent decline in pipeline of new projects during the September quarter.

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JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Housing boom enters twilight

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Original article by Valerina Changarathil
The Australian – Page: 3 : 23-Nov-21

The Commonwealth Bank expects seven per cent growth in house prices in Australia’s capital cities in 2022. However, head of Australian economics Gareth Aird says the nation’s residential property boom is nearing its end, and he forecasts that house prices will fall by 10 per cent in 2023. However, he notes that this will merely see house prices return to current levels. Prices in Sydney and Hobart are tipped to decline by 12 per cent, while the housing markets in Melbourne and Canberra are forecast to fall by around 10 per cent. The ANZ Bank recently forecast that house prices will fall by four per cent in 2023.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Home affordability near the worst for 10 years

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 26-Oct-21

Moody’s Investors Service expects a further decline in housing affordability in Sydney in the near-term. The ratings agency has warned that dwelling prices will need to rise by just 4.6 per cent for the Sydney market’s affordability to reach its highest level in 10 years. Moody’s also forecasts that housing affordability nationwide will reach its highest level in a decade if dwelling prices rise by 15 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the decline in housing affordability could eventually led to increased mortgage stress.

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Housing value to hit $10 trillion

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Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Weekend Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 2-Oct-21

Data from CoreLogic shows that housing values in Australia have risen by 17.6 per cent so far in 2021, including 1.5 per cent in September. Meanwhile, the total value of the nation’s housing stock may top $10trn by the end of the year if the current growth momentum continues. The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently reported that the value of housing stock rose to $8.92trn in the June quarter. National Australia Bank has forecast that house prices will rise by 20 per cent in 2021, following growth of about 3.8 per cent in 2022.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Demand for new houses goes through the roof

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Original article by Melissa Iaria
The Australian – Page: 20 : 1-Oct-21

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 6.8 per cent growth in dwelling approvals nationwide in August. This followed an 8.6 per cent decline in July. Private-sector housing approvals rose by 3.5 per cent month-on-month and nearly 24 per cent over the year to August. Daniel Rossi from the ABS attributes the rebound in housing approvals to factors such as increased household savings, historically low interest rates and confidence in the housing market.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Stimulus creates oversupply of homes

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 25-Aug-21

Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital says the take-up rate of the federal government’s HomeBuilder scheme was more than four times higher than expected. He says that together with state-based incentives, this will result in an oversupply of new housing by 2023. Toohey adds that there is also a good chance that house prices will fall over the next two years. The government received more than 99,000 applications to build a new home via the scheme, as well as some 22,000 applications to undertake renovations on an existing home.

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YARRA CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD

House price growth among fastest in world

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 3 : 10-Jun-21

Data from Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index shows that dwelling prices in Australia increased by 8.7 per cent in the six months to March. The nation ranked fourth in terms of house price growth among the 56 countries and territories that were surveyed. Meanwhile, Australia ranked 18th on an annualised basis, with house price growth of 8.3 per cent over the 12 months to March. Michelle Ciesielski of Knight Frank says Australia’s housing market has been "particularly resilient" during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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KNIGHT FRANK

Mortgage and rental stress worsen in May

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 9-Jun-21

Data from Digital Finance Analytics shows that 41.3 per cent of households in New South Wales were in mortgage distress in May, compared with just 38.2 per cent in April. Likewise, 56.8 per cent of households in Tasmania were in mortgage distress. The northwest Sydney suburb of Stanhope Gardens had the nation’s highest level of mortgage stress in May, at 91.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the Northern Territory was the only jurisdiction that did not record an increase in rental stress during the month.

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DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS

Record property prices still climbing

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 15 : 9-Apr-21

New figures show that house prices in Australia’s capital cities increased by 5.6 per cent in the March quarter. House prices rose by 2.8 per cent nationally in March, and Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says the combined value of Australian dwellings topped $7.9trn during the month. Meanwhile, the national median house price is now 5.6 per cent above the previous market peak in 2017.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD