REAL ESTATE – AUSTRALIA – RESIDENTIAL

Homeowners rush to refinance their loans

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Oct-22

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that a record $19bn worth of home loans were refinanced in August. This is five per cent higher than in July, and 10 per cent higher than a year ago. Owner-occupiers refinanced some $12.8bn worth of home loans, while property investors refinanced $6.1bn worth of loans. The figures also show that new mortgage loan commitments fell 3.4 per cent to $27.4bn in August; there has been a 15 per cent decline in housing loan commitments since the Reserve Bank started increasing the cash rate in May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inner-city suburbs fall to pre-COVID levels

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 24-Aug-22

CoreLogic has identified 11 inner suburbs of Sydney in which the median house price is now lower than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The list is headed by Darlinghurst and Surry Hills, where the median price has fallen by 6.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively since March 2020. The median house price in 46 inner suburbs of Melbourne has also fallen since the onset of the pandemic. This includes a 14.2 per cent decline in South Melbourne and a 12.3 per cent fall in St Kilda. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says prices in more suburbs are likely to fall below pre-COVID levels as the housing market downturn gathers pace.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

One in five mortgagors will struggle to pay 3pc rate rise

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 30 : 10-Aug-22

Comparison site Finder estimates that the average mortgage interest rate would rise to 5.85 per cent if the cash rate reaches 2.5 per cent. Finder’s Richard Whitten says recent home buyers in particular will struggle to make mortgage repayments if the cash rate continues to rise. A survey by Finder has found that one in five people with a mortgage would find it hard to make repayments if their interest rate increased by three per cent, while many would consider selling their home. SQM Research MD Louise Christopher cautions that selling in a downturn would be an added challenge for distressed home owners.

CORPORATES
FINDER.COM.AU, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

House prices going south at record rate

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 32 : 16-Jun-22

Investment bank Jarden is bearish about the outlook for Australia’s housing market. The firm says house prices could fall by 15-20 per cent from peak to trough, including a decline of around five per cent by the end of 2022. Chief economist Carlos Cacho says the prospect of higher interest rates will accelerate the downturn in the housing market, and he warns that Melbourne and Sydney are likely to experience an even large decline in dwelling prices. Cacho also anticipants a sharp decline in building approvals.

CORPORATES
JARDEN AND COMPANY

Housing market hits record $9.9 trillion

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 16-Mar-22

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that the total value of the nation’s housing stock rose to a new high of $9.9 trillion in the December quarter. This is $512.6 billion higher than in the previous three months, with growth of 4.7 per cent in national dwelling values. Brisbane recorded 9.6 per cent growth in housing values during the December quarter, while Adelaide and Melbourne recorded growth of 6.8 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively; however, growth in Sydney slowed to 4.1 per cent. Meanwhile, dwelling prices rose by 23.7 per nationally in the year to December.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Construction costs rise at fastest pace since 2005

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 9-Feb-22

CoreLogic has warned that residential construction costs are likely to rise further in the March quarter, citing factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions. The firm’s Cordell Construction Cost Index rose by just 1.1 per cent in the final three months of 2021, compared with 3.8 per cent in the September quarter. The index rose by 7.3 per cent in the year to December, its highest annual increase since March 2005. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the big rise in annual construction costs might increase the cost of new homes and renovations, which may in turn put upward pressure on inflation.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Big cities tipped to lead fall in prices

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 3 : 25-Nov-21

SQM Research has forecast that growth in residential property prices will slow in the first quarter of 2022 before falling in the second half of the year. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says there are signs that the national housing market is nearing its peak, adding that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority could further intervene in the mortgage market as soon as December. SQM Research has also forecast that Sydney and Melbourne will record the biggest fall in house prices.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Rental affordability crisis looms as borders reopen

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 & 34 : 24-Nov-21

A report from JLL warns that demand for rental housing in Australia will exceed supply in the medium-term, as state and international borders reopen in the wake of the pandemic. Leigh Warner of JLL says there has been a lot of focus on housing affordability, but rental affordability is set to become a major issue. Demand for apartments in particular is expected to exceed supply in the next few years, with a seven per cent decline in pipeline of new projects during the September quarter.

CORPORATES
JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Housing boom enters twilight

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Original article by Valerina Changarathil
The Australian – Page: 3 : 23-Nov-21

The Commonwealth Bank expects seven per cent growth in house prices in Australia’s capital cities in 2022. However, head of Australian economics Gareth Aird says the nation’s residential property boom is nearing its end, and he forecasts that house prices will fall by 10 per cent in 2023. However, he notes that this will merely see house prices return to current levels. Prices in Sydney and Hobart are tipped to decline by 12 per cent, while the housing markets in Melbourne and Canberra are forecast to fall by around 10 per cent. The ANZ Bank recently forecast that house prices will fall by four per cent in 2023.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Home affordability near the worst for 10 years

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 26-Oct-21

Moody’s Investors Service expects a further decline in housing affordability in Sydney in the near-term. The ratings agency has warned that dwelling prices will need to rise by just 4.6 per cent for the Sydney market’s affordability to reach its highest level in 10 years. Moody’s also forecasts that housing affordability nationwide will reach its highest level in a decade if dwelling prices rise by 15 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the decline in housing affordability could eventually led to increased mortgage stress.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED