House prices crash 30pc in doomsday scenario

Original article by James Kirby
The Australian – Page: 20 : 14-May-20

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has warned that house prices could fall by 32 per cent over the next three years if there is a prolonged economic downturn. This worst-case scenario is based on the unemployment rate exceeding nine per cent. CBA’s base case downturn scenario is for house prices to fall by 11 per cent. The bank has identified unemployment, underemployment, changes to income and house prices as the key drivers for the housing market.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Prices face 30pc fall if lockdown lingers

Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 2 : 8-Apr-20

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says confidence in the housing market will recover if coronavirus-induced restrictions are eased by the end of May. He warns that residential property prices could fall by up to 30 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne if there is a second wave of coronavirus infections during winter and the restrictions have to remain in place. Christopher adds that the closure of the nation’s borders will reduce underlying demand for housing; he expects this to be one of the last restrictions to be lifted.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Property sales collapse, price falls ahead: UBS

Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 16 : 3-Apr-20

Economists generally expect Australia’s residential property prices to decline by 5-20 per cent due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. UBS analysts have declined to forecast the likely effect of the health crisis on house prices, although they have warned that governments may need to step in with measures such as stamp duty cuts if the housing market falls too far. The investment bank adds that the ban on auctions and open houses is likely to prompt a sharp decline in sales volumes in the near-term.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

House prices set for double-digit growth: AMP

Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 28-Feb-20

AMP Capital has forecast 10 per cent growth in house prices nationally in 2020, but growth is expected to slow to around five per cent in 2021. Senior economist Diana Mousina says factors such as the interest rate cuts in 2019 and the potential for further monetary policy easing in 2020 should offset any impact that rising household debt levels and tighter lending standards may have on house prices.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Housing set for recovery: Lendlease

Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 6-Jan-20

A number of factors will boost Australia’s residential property market in 2020, according to Lendlease executive Kylie Rampa. They include the federal government’s First Home Buyers Deposit Scheme, improved access to housing credit and historically low interest rates. Rampa adds that Lendlease wants to capitalise on its expertise in the affordable housing market in the UK to increase its presence in this sector in Australia.

CORPORATES
LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rampant growth in Sydney, Melbourne runs out of steam

Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 31-Dec-19

Sydney home values rose by 1.7 per cent in December, according to CoreLogic, while Melbourne home values increased by 1.4 per cent. This compares to growth of 2.7 per cent for Sydney and 2.2 per cent for Melbourne in November. Tim Lawless from CoreLogic expects that Sydney and Melbourne will record overall growth rates of 5.3 per cent in 2019; Sydney values fell by 8.9 per cent in 2018, while Melbourne values declined by seven per cent. CoreLogic expects Melbourne home values to increase by up to 14 per cent in 2020, while Sydney home values are predicted to rise by up to 12 per cent.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Rising market driving spike in underquoting

Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 18-Nov-19

Real estate agents have warned that underquoting is again becoming widespread in the industry, as the residential property market rebounds from the recent downturn. Underquoting was rife during the previous housing boom, and some agents are concerned that the practice is undermining buyers’ confidence. Hoskins Real Estate and one of its directors were recently ordered to pay almost $890,000 in penalties and compensation for underquoting.

CORPORATES
HOSKINS REAL ESTATE

Sydney, Melbourne prices take off in 2020

Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 & 39 : 14-Nov-19

SQM Research MD Louis Christopher expects growth in housing prices in Australia’s capital cities to average 11 per cent in 2020. The latest edition of Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report forecasts that dwelling prices in Melbourne will rise by up to 15 per cent, while Sydney’s housing market will record growth of 10-14 per cent. However, the Darwin market is expected to buck the trend, with a two per cent downturn in 2020. Christopher says the housing market rebound is unlikely to be sustained over the longer term.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

House prices regain a third of downturn losses

Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 24-Oct-19

Data from Domain Holdings shows that house prices in Sydney increased by 4.8 per cent in the September quarter. Nicola Powell of Domain says the median house price in the New South Wales capital rose by $49,000 over the period, after falling by around $167,000 during the 18-month property market downturn. House prices in Melbourne gained 4.1 per cent over the quarter, but house and apartment prices fell in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.

CORPORATES
DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Price rises set housing up for new boom

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 30-Sep-19

Data to be released by CoreLogic on 1 October is expected to show that house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have increased by 3.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent over the last four months. Prices rose by 1.6 per cent in Sydney and 1.4 per cent in Melbourne during August. Yarra Capital’s Tim Toohey has flagged the potential for a housing bubble in the medium-term, particularly if the Reserve Bank further eases monetary policy, while the ANZ Bank’s David Plank says regulatory intervention may be necessary if prices keep rising and there is an upturn in mortgage lending.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, YARRA CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY