REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

RBA sees housing slump but no recession

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 & 26 : 9-Sep-26

Bond traders now consider the chances of an official interest rate rise in September to be about 70 per cent. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s assistant governor Sarah Hunter has told a property summit that the central bank is still concerned about inflation, and its monetary policy board could increase the cash rate later this month. Hunter also said that the downturn in the housing market is hurting the broader economy, and it will result in lower dwelling construction activity in 2027 and 2028. However, she has rejected concerns that the housing market downturn will trigger a recession.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

More house price pain to come, warns nation’s biggest lender

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 2-Sep-26

House prices in Sydney have fallen by 6.7 per cent so far in 2026, while prices in Melbourne are down 6.3 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia anticipates a further downturn in the residential market; it now expects dwelling prices in Sydney to fall by 11 per cent in total for the year, and prices in Melbourne to be down 10 per cent. CBA expects dwelling prices to stop falling by April 2027, with a peak-to-trough downturn of 13 per cent forecast for Sydney and 11 per cent for Melbourne. Meanwhile, data from Cotality shows that national dwelling values fell for a fifth consecutive month in August.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COTALITY

Biggest house price fallers since the budget

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 & 26 : 15-Jul-26

Analysis by data provider Cotality shows that house prices in some of the most premium suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne have recorded the biggest falls since the federal government’s budget in May. House prices in Bellevue, which is Sydney’s most expensive suburb, fell by two per cent during May and June; other prestigious suburbs that have record sharp falls in home values include Balmain East, Double Bay and North Bondi. House prices in affluent inner-city and bayside suburbs of Melbourne have also fallen; they include Albert Park, Collingwood, Elwood and Port Melbourne.

CORPORATES
COTALITY

Housing slide to lift ASX, but banks face risk

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Original article by Grace Lagan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 7-Jul-26

House prices fell 0.4 per cent nationwide in June, while the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 gained about 0.5 per cent. Historical analysis by Morningstar suggests that the Australian bourse is likely to benefit from the latest housing market weakness. The firm notes that excluding the global financial crisis, there have been five housing market downturns since 1980 that have resulted in dwelling prices falling by at least five per cent; the ASX 200 has in turn gained 7.5 per cent on average during each of these downturns. Looking ahead, Challenger’s chief economist Jonathan Kearns says the nation’s banks are likely to record lower growth in new home loans as an expected rise in the unemployment rate results in increased mortgage arrears.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF

Price tumbles spread to all capital cities

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Original article by Thomas Henry, Noah Yim
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 7-Jul-26

HSBC Australia’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says the bank’s central forecast is for house prices to fall by up to eight per cent nationally by the end of 2027, including 2-6 per cent next year. He adds that the pace of decline in June suggests that there is downside risk to HSBC’s central forecast, with Cotality’s home value index falling by 0.4 per cent nationally in June. Bloxham warns that official interest rate cuts are likely to be needed to deliver a housing market turnaround, but this is unlikely to occur in the next year. Meanwhile, Westpac’s senior economist Pat Bustamante says the major bank expects a further two interest rate rises in the current monetary policy cycle.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COTALITY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

First-home negative equity alarm

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Original article by Noah Yim, Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Jul-26

Property industry data shows that dwelling prices have fallen in nine of the 10 postcodes nationwide that have had the highest uptake of the federal government’s five per cent deposit scheme. The vast majority of these postcodes are in Melbourne, which has recorded the biggest fall in dwelling prices. Tim Lawless from Cotality says that some buyers who used the First Home Buyer Guarantee scheme are likely to experience a short-term period of negative equity; he adds that most of them will not be unduly impacted unless they need to sell their home for some reason.

CORPORATES
COTALITY

Sydney and Melbourne home prices fall

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Original article by Lucy Slade
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 1-Apr-26

Data from Cotality shows that dwelling prices rose by 2.1 per cent nationallly during the first three months of 2026. The prices of homes in Sydney and Melbourne fell by 0.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively in the March quarter; in contrast, Perth recorded price growth of 7.3 per cent, ahead of Brisbane with 5.1 per cent growth. ANZ Bank economist Madeline Dunk notes that there has been no growth in dwelling prices in Sydney and Melbourne since November; the prospect of further interest rate rises could put further downward pressure on both housing markets.

CORPORATES
COTALITY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Housing prices up: insurers go to war

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Original article by Greg Brown, Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Aug-25

Modelling produced by Lateral Economics suggests that the federal government’s proposed expansion of the home guarantee scheme will adversely affect the first-home buyers it aims to help. The government will allow such people to buy a home with a deposit of just five per cent, and without the need for lenders mortgage insurance. The report, which was produced on behalf of the Insurance Council of Australia, concludes that the policy will result in house prices rising by between 3.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent nationally within its first year. ICA CEO Andrew Hall says house prices will rise by more than the cost of lenders mortgage insurance.

CORPORATES
LATERAL ECONOMICS, INSURANCE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Housing crisis puts even safest seats at risk

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Original article by Ronald Mizen, Nila Sweeney, Tom Rabe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-Apr-25

Analysis of data from Cotality suggests that the housing affordability crisis could potentially undermine support for the Coalition and Labor in traditionally safe seats at the election on 3 May. The analysis shows that a number of such seats have recorded the biggest decline in housing affordability since the previous federal election in 2022. They include the Labor seats of Watson, Blaxland and Kingsford Smith, and Coalition-held seats such as Banks and Moncrieff. Both major parties have announced new initiatives aimed at helping people to buy their own home.

CORPORATES
COTALITY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Australian house prices hit new peak for 2025 as rate cut drives buyer demand

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Original article by Cait Kelly
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 1-Apr-25

Data from CoreLogic Australia shows that house prices rose by 0.4 per cent nationwide in March; it was the second successive month of house price growth, and followed a decline of 0.5 per cent over the three months to December. Tim Lawless from CoreLogic – which is rebranding as Cotality – attributes the "pretty mild turnaround" to improved consumer sentiment in response to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut in February. Separate data from PropTrack shows that dwelling prices rose in every capital city in March.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, PROPTRACK PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA