REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Labor tax plan would hit home prices

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 12-Jun-18

RiskWise Property Research and Wargent Advisory have modelled the possible impact of Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing on house prices. They found that the changes could lead to house price falls of up to 12 per cent in some parts of Australia, including Townsville and Mackay. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall by nine per cent. With house prices already shaky, the property sector is urging Labor to scrap its plans. However, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has rejected this suggestion.

CORPORATES
RISKWISE PROPERTY RESEARCH, WARDENT ADVISORY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

House price tumble steeper than tipped

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Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 2 : 7-Jun-18

The ANZ Bank’s latest housing market report notes that the national auction clearance rate averaged 58 per cent in May, compared with 66 per cent in February. ANZ warns that the downturn means house prices may not rebound as strongly as the bank had previously forecast. ANZ now expects the downturn in house prices to be larger than forecast, noting that the slowdown has gathered pace in recent months. Housing Industry ­Association data also highlights the decline in sales of new homes in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Sydney market is 45pc overvalued

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 8-May-18

SQM Research had forecast in October that Sydney house prices would rise by between four and eight per cent in 2018. However, it now predicts that house prices could fall by as much as four per cent. SQM now expects house prices in Melbourne to decline by up to three per cent in 2018, compared to its previous forecast for growth between seven and 12 per cent. SQM contends that Sydney’s housing market is overvalued by around 45 per cent.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Sydney, Melbourne prices to fall 5pc

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Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 10-Apr-18

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver forecasts that the median house price in both Melbourne and Sydney will decline by around five per cent in 2018. He expects a further downturn in house prices in 2019, although he adds that factors such as population growth and stricter lending standards will prevent a nationwide price crash. Meanwhile, analysis by valuer Herron Todd White suggests that Melbourne is the only mainland capital where apartment prices have not yet peaked.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, HERRON TODD WHITE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF NEW SOUTH WALES

APRA relaxes as home boom ends

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 22 : 2-Mar-18

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has told a Senate committee that the slowing residential property market may reduce the need to cap annual growth in lending to investors. The latest data shows that there has been a sharp fall in lending to investors, while credit growth across the economy has also slowed. However, a number of lenders have recently moved to reduce the interest rates on their interest-only investment loans. Morgan Stanley forecasts a further slowdown in both credit growth and the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, ING BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, VIRGIN MONEY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ADELAIDE BANK, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Labor to stick with negative gearing policy

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Original article by Andrew Tillett, Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 9-Jan-18

The Australian Labor Party has argued that a Treasury analysis produced almost two years ago demonstrates that its policy on negative gearing will boost housing affordability. The analysis, which was obtained under Freedom of Information laws, concluded that Labor’s proposed changes to the negative gearing and capital gains tax regimes would have relatively little negative effect on house prices. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has indicated that the proposed reforms will be part of Labor’s policy platform at the next federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Australia rises in housing list

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 23 : 7-Dec-17

Iceland heads Knight Frank’s latest Global House Price Index, with annualised growth of 20.4 per in the September quarter. Australia is ranked seventh in the list, compared with 11th in the June quarter, with house price growth of 10.2 per cent year-on-year and 1.9 per cent in the three months to September. The data shows that house prices have risen by 5.1 per cent globally over the last year.

CORPORATES
KNIGHT FRANK

House prices to fall further: economists

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 5-Dec-17

UBS says the Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to reduce official interest rates in the near-term, despite data showing that house prices in Sydney fell by 1.3 per cent in the three months to November. UBS notes that in the past the RBA has frequently reduced the cash rate in response to a sharp fall in house prices. The firm adds that a further downturn in house prices is likely. Meanwhile, LF Economics expects the royal commission into the banking sector to have a significant impact on house prices.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, LF ECONOMICS, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Sydney’s superstar house prices explained

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 23-Nov-17

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says there are certain cities whose house prices increase a lot more than other cities in their countries. Lowe says this trend has been observed by his colleagues at other central banks, and the general consensus is that people are willing to pay higher prices for houses in some cities because of increased "economic or social returns" to be gained by living in them . Such places have been dubbed "superstar" cities, and Lowe says they include cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Vancouver, Toronto, and San Francisco

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS ECONOMISTS INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Tale of two cities for luxury home prices

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 2 : 9-Nov-17

Sydney is ranked eighth on the quarterly Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index, down from sixth position in the June quarter. The top end of Sydney’s residential property market recorded growth of 11 per cent in the year to September, compared with 11.5 per cent growth in the year to June. Melbourne has risen from 10th to ninth, with prestige residential properties rising by 10.4 per cent, up from 9.1 per cent annual growth in the June quarter. Guangzhou and Shanghai have recorded the largest growth in prime residential property values.

CORPORATES
KNIGHT FRANK