REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Commercial yields to tighten further: AMP

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 16-Jun-17

Opinion is divided as to whether Australia’s commercial real estate sector is heading for a major downturn. Shane Quinn of Quintessential Equity says he can foresee "carnage" if banks decide to cut back on lending, but Adam Geha, the CEO of fund manager EG, says he cannot foresee a correction in the immediate future. Geha’s comments are echoed by AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, who says a commercial property market crash looks to be unlikely.

CORPORATES
QUINTESSENTIAL EQUITY PTY LTD, EG CAPITAL PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia rises in house price index

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 9-Jun-17

Iceland heads Knight Frank’s latest Global House Price Index, with annualised growth of 17.8 per in the March 2017 quarter. Of the 55 countries covered by the survey, 48 recorded house price increases, with 11 posting an annualised rise of more than 10 per cent. Australia ranks 20th in the list, with strong performances in the Melbourne and Sydney housing markets helping it to achieve annual growth of 7.7 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
KNIGHT FRANK, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

REITs at risk in housing slowdown

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 25 : 1-Jun-17

Data from CoreLogic shows that residential property values across five Australian capital cities fell by 1.1 per cent in May 2017. Analysts and fund managers warn that listed real estate investment trusts could be vulnerable to a slowdown in the housing market. Stuart Cartledge of Phoenix Portfolios notes that developers that have pre-sold apartments will not be hit by any downturn, although future sales volumes may be affected.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, PHOENIX PORTFOLIOS PTY LTD, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED – ASX CWP, AVJENNINGS LIMITED – ASX AVJ, VILLA WORLD LIMITED – ASX VLW, RESOLUTION CAPITAL LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Australia ‘must deal with quite spectacular housing bubble’

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 1-Jun-17

A sharp downturn in the residential property market and an economic slowdown in China are among the biggest risks to the Australian economy, according to Willem Buiter of Citigroup. The investment bank’s global chief economist warns that the Federal Government’s plans to invest $A75bn in infrastructure over 10 years will not be sufficient to offset the impact of a property market downturn. He says the Government must take action to ensure that the housing market has a soft landing.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, BANK OF ENGLAND, WORLD BANK, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

RBA: road and rail a house price fix

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-May-17

The Australian Government’s May 2017 Budget is tipped to include funding for road and rail infrastructure, as part of its policy on housing affordability. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says improved transport infrastructure is the best way to making housing more affordable. He adds that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s move to crack down on lending to property investors is intended to provide "breathing space" to allow the supply-demand imbalance to correct itself, rather than being aimed at reining in house price growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Housing prices to drop 7pc, bank says

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman, Daniel Palmer
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 4-May-17

Data from REA Group shows that housing demand in New South Wales declined by 7.8 per cent month-on-month in April 2017, while demand among house buyers in Victoria fell 1.6 per cent. Meanwhile, Citigroup has forecast that residential property prices could fall by up to seven per cent in 2018, with apartment prices in Melbourne and Sydney regarded as the most vulnerable to a correction. However, the investment bank adds that any downturn in the property market is unlikely to impact on the broader economy.

CORPORATES
REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, REALESTATE.COM.AU, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP

‘Calling the top’ of the boom in property

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 3 : 24-Apr-17

UBS is of the view that the Australia housing market may have reached its peak, although any easing will amount to a correction rather than a collapse. Auction clearance rates on the weekend of 22-23 April 2017 suggest that UBS’s forecast may be on the mark, with Sydney recording its lowest auction clearance rate since the beginning of the year. However, not everyone agrees with UBS, with analyst Louis Christopher saying it is too early to tell.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE, DOMAIN.COM.AU, DEVINE REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BELLE PROPERTY PTY LTD

Why the gloom merchants got housing wrong

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 4-Jan-17

Property prices are still rising, despite predictions of a decline. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index for December 2016 shows that they rose 10.9 per cent in the five main capital cities in 2016. They increased eight per cent in 2015. Louis Christopher, of SQM Research, says house prices are rising because of factors such as low interest rates, population growth and inadequate supply.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, DOMAIN.COM.AU, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, MACRO ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Negative gearing not to blame

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 1-Dec-16

Negative gearing is unfairly blamed for distorting Australia’s residential property market. However, house prices are rising because of record low interest rates. Cheap credit makes property acquisitions attractive to investors. Falling house prices in Perth suggest that property is not necessarily an attractive asset in all circumstances. BIS Shrapnel expects this trend to continue.

CORPORATES
BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED

Negative gearing not to blame

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 1-Dec-16

Negative gearing is unfairly blamed for distorting Australia’s residential property market. However, house prices are rising because of record low interest rates. Cheap credit makes property acquisitions attractive to investors. Falling house prices in Perth suggest that property is not necessarily an attractive asset in all circumstances. BIS Shrapnel expects this trend to continue.

CORPORATES
BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED