REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Home values drop in 80pc of suburbs

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 19-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that dwelling values fell in more than eight out of 10 suburbs across Australia in the last three months of 2022. Some 98 per cent of Sydney suburbs recorded a fall in house prices in the December quarter, down from 100 per cent in the September quarter; the value of units fell in 93.2 per cent of suburbs in the harbour city, compared with 95.7 per cent of suburbs in the September quarter. Likewise, house prices fell in 98.4 per cent of Melbourne suburbs (also down from 100 per cent in the three months to September), and unit values fell in 78.8 per cent of suburbs (down from 88.4 per cent in the previous quarter).

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House prices plunge 8.4pc from peak

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices have fallen by 8.4 per cent nationally since peaking in May. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says the sharp decline is primarily due to the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle, noting that interest rates have not increased so quickly in more than three decades. She anticipates a further market downturn in coming months, given that more interest rate rises are likely, and suggests that a double-digit fall in national house prices is possible. Sydney has recorded a 13 per cent fall in house prices, while prices in Melbourne are down 8.6 per cent peak-to-trough.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Most economists got house prices wrong last year

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 4-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that national dwelling values fell by 5.3 per cent in 2022, while combined capital cities dwelling values were down 6.9 per cent. Leading economists failed to predict the downturn in the housing market; the majority had forecast at the start of the year that there would be at least modest growth in house prices during 2022. Westpac’s Bill Evans had forecast eight per cent growth, while the Commonwealth Bank had anticipated seven per cent growth. National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster had forecast that house prices would end the year flat.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD,WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC,COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA,NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Brisbane house prices set to fall 15pc: ME Bank

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 28-Oct-22

ME Bank now expects dwelling prices across Australia’s capital cities to fall by a larger margin than it had forecast in June. House prices in most capital cities have fallen sharply since the Reserve Bank started tightening monetary policy in May. ME Bank’s chief economist Peter Munckton says Brisbane house prices in particular have fallen more quickly than expected in recent months. ME Bank expects house prices in the Queensland capital to fall by 15 per cent from peak to trough, compared with its June forecast of an eight per cent decline.

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ME BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inner-city suburbs fall to pre-COVID levels

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 24-Aug-22

CoreLogic has identified 11 inner suburbs of Sydney in which the median house price is now lower than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The list is headed by Darlinghurst and Surry Hills, where the median price has fallen by 6.7 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively since March 2020. The median house price in 46 inner suburbs of Melbourne has also fallen since the onset of the pandemic. This includes a 14.2 per cent decline in South Melbourne and a 12.3 per cent fall in St Kilda. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says prices in more suburbs are likely to fall below pre-COVID levels as the housing market downturn gathers pace.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

House prices going south at record rate

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 32 : 16-Jun-22

Investment bank Jarden is bearish about the outlook for Australia’s housing market. The firm says house prices could fall by 15-20 per cent from peak to trough, including a decline of around five per cent by the end of 2022. Chief economist Carlos Cacho says the prospect of higher interest rates will accelerate the downturn in the housing market, and he warns that Melbourne and Sydney are likely to experience an even large decline in dwelling prices. Cacho also anticipants a sharp decline in building approvals.

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JARDEN AND COMPANY

Big cities tipped to lead fall in prices

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Original article by Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 3 : 25-Nov-21

SQM Research has forecast that growth in residential property prices will slow in the first quarter of 2022 before falling in the second half of the year. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says there are signs that the national housing market is nearing its peak, adding that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority could further intervene in the mortgage market as soon as December. SQM Research has also forecast that Sydney and Melbourne will record the biggest fall in house prices.

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SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

Housing boom enters twilight

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Original article by Valerina Changarathil
The Australian – Page: 3 : 23-Nov-21

The Commonwealth Bank expects seven per cent growth in house prices in Australia’s capital cities in 2022. However, head of Australian economics Gareth Aird says the nation’s residential property boom is nearing its end, and he forecasts that house prices will fall by 10 per cent in 2023. However, he notes that this will merely see house prices return to current levels. Prices in Sydney and Hobart are tipped to decline by 12 per cent, while the housing markets in Melbourne and Canberra are forecast to fall by around 10 per cent. The ANZ Bank recently forecast that house prices will fall by four per cent in 2023.

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COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Home affordability near the worst for 10 years

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 26-Oct-21

Moody’s Investors Service expects a further decline in housing affordability in Sydney in the near-term. The ratings agency has warned that dwelling prices will need to rise by just 4.6 per cent for the Sydney market’s affordability to reach its highest level in 10 years. Moody’s also forecasts that housing affordability nationwide will reach its highest level in a decade if dwelling prices rise by 15 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the decline in housing affordability could eventually led to increased mortgage stress.

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Housing value to hit $10 trillion

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Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Weekend Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 2-Oct-21

Data from CoreLogic shows that housing values in Australia have risen by 17.6 per cent so far in 2021, including 1.5 per cent in September. Meanwhile, the total value of the nation’s housing stock may top $10trn by the end of the year if the current growth momentum continues. The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently reported that the value of housing stock rose to $8.92trn in the June quarter. National Australia Bank has forecast that house prices will rise by 20 per cent in 2021, following growth of about 3.8 per cent in 2022.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB