RECESSIONS

IMF fears third global recession this century

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Original article by Lea Jurkovic
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 15-Apr-26

The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report has warned that the Iran war could potentially trigger a recession. The IMF’s worst-case scenario is for global economic growth to fall by 1.3 percentage points in 2026, to just two per cent; this would the global economy on the brink of a recession. The IMF has also urged governments worldwide to curb spending and avoid targeted cost-of-living relief, arguing that such measures could boost inflation and make it harder for central banks to bring it under control. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Andrew Hauser says it will continue to increase official interest rates if it deems the risk of high inflation to be more important than the impact on economic growth.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Stocks lashed by recession fears

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 4-Oct-19

Factors such as growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and a ruling from the WTO that has cleared the US to impose tariffs on European Union imports have weighed on investors worldwide. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 2.9 per cent so far in October, while the S&P 500 in the US has fallen by three per cent. Aaryn Nania of Lucerne Investment Partners warns that investors should expect further market volatility, although Robert Buckland of Citigroup says it is too soon to predict a recession in the US and the end of the bull market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, LUCERNE INVESTMENT PARTNERS, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX

Goldman upbeat, we won’t get a recession

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 10-Feb-16

Modelling by investment bank Goldman Sachs suggests that there is a 25 per cent chance that developed economies will experience a recession in the next 12 months. This compares with the historical average of 28 per cent. The risk of Australia experiencing a recession is just 13 per cent, while the long-term average is 23 per cent. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius argues that the recent volatility in global financial markets presents an opportunity for risk-averse investors.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, TAILORED INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MONTGOMERY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

Citi says 55pc chance of global recession

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 11-Sep-15

A new report from Citigroup’s chief economist Willem Buiter has raised the prospect of an emerging market-driven global recession. Buiter rates the chances of a global recession in the next two years at 55 per cent, warning that if the Chinese economy goes into recession it will have a flow-on effect on other emerging market economies. He adds that the limited scope for further interest rate cuts in developed economies may require central banks to consider more stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED