REFERENDUM – GREAT BRITAIN

Investors defy Brexit to scoop bargains

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 8-Jul-16

CYBG and Henderson Group are among the Australian-listed stocks that have been heavily sold down in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Some local fund managers have capitalised on the bearish sentiment to increase their holdings of unloved stocks that have exposure to the UK. However, Bennelong Australian Equity Partners’ Julian Beaumont remains cautious about such stocks, while some fund managers are increasing their holdings of gold stocks or real estate investment trusts.

CORPORATES
CYBG PLC – ASX CYB, HENDERSON GROUP PLC – ASX HGG, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, BENNELONG AUSTRALIAN EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, AVIVA PLC, THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SGR, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, PHOENIX PORTFOLIOS PTY LTD, DESANE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DGH, BLACKWALL PROPERTY TRUST – ASX BWR, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT – ASX CQR, VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORPORATION, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, MOONSTAR INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, PANTERRA GOLD LIMITED – ASX PGI, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SYR, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GRYPHON MINERALS LIMITED – ASX GRY

Coalition fuels Brexit sentiment: Shorten

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 29-Jun-16

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten gave a speech at the National Press Club on 28 June 2016. He warned that the Coalition’s policies will lead to the social discontent that has led to the UK’s vote to leave the European Union and the popularity of US presidential candidate Donald Trump. In particular, Shorten noted the Coalition’s plan to progressively scale back the company tax rate while reducing funding for health, education and welfare services. He added that the political and economic lesson from "Brexit" must not be ignored.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA), LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Brexit may prompt RBA to lean towards cash-rate cut

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-Jun-16

Financial markets have priced in a 24 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in July 2016, compared with just 12 per cent prior to the "Brexit" referendum. However, the odds of a rate cut in August have increased from 44 per cent to 76 per cent since the UK voted to leave the European Union. Some economists expect the RBA to leave rates on hold in July but adopt an easing bias in its monetary policy statement. The central bank has not had an easing bias since the last rate cut in May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF ENGLAND, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, LEHMAN BROTHERS INCORPORATED

Sell-off is prime time for buying

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Original article by Jessica Sier, Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Jun-16

Shares in British and Irish banks have fallen sharply in the wake of the "Brexit" referendum, but Platinum Asset Management’s Clay Smolinski says this has created a buying opportunity for investors. Meanwhile, Aurora Funds Management’s Hugh Dive says the fallout from the UK’s vote to leave the European Union should have little impact on the Australian sharemarket and the nation’s four major banks. He notes that the local banks have less reliance on wholesale funding from Europe than during the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF IRELAND PLC, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

TNS and Opinium (& Boris Johnson) big winners out of UK’s ‘Brexit’ Referendum

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-16

The majority of pollsters predicting the result of the UK’s referendum on whether to remain a member of the European Union got the result wrong with their final polls released in the week before the referendum. The final result shows that 51.9 per cent of Britons opted to leave the EU, while 48.1 per cent wanted to remain in the EU. This was a close result, but of the six polls released on the day before the referendum only two correctly predicted that the majority of Britons would vote for so-called ‘Brexit’. TNS and Opinium produced poll results of 51 per cent for Leave and 49 per cent for Remain when those who were undecided or not voting are excluded. Both of these polls were conducted online. Of the four polls that predicted a victory for Remain, two were conducted online and two were conducted via telephone. The final results of the referendum show that using a methodology that provides the most accurate possible measure of a population’s key demographics – which includes polling people who may not be easily reached by traditional polling methods such as the landline telephone – is the key to producing an accurate representation of the people’s feelings on a matter. Roy Morgan believes that its multi-mode polling methodology that utilises an addressed based probability sample including face-to-face interviewing, landline telephones and mobile telephones, and can incorporate online polling as well, is the best way to provide an accurate representation of how the population thinks about a given matter.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, TNS, OPINIUM

PM’s Brexit pitch for stability

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 27-Jun-16

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull officially launched the Coalition’s election campaign on 26 June 2016. He warned that voting for minor political parties could result in the Opposition forming a minority government, arguing that the economic and financial market uncertainty created by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union means the Coalition is best-placed to manage the Australian economy. Turnbull also announced some $A390m of new spending measures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES. MEDICARE AUSTRALIA

Europe aftershocks set to rattle the globe

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 24-Jun-16

Futures traders expect Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to be flat or rise slightly when trading resumes on 27 June 2016. However, European sharemarkets and the British pound could be further sold down in the next week, in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, Paul Bloxham of HSBC expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate on hold in July, noting that low inflation remains the central bank’s focus.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF ENGLAND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER

Recession in Europe a ‘very scary’ prospect

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, James Chessell, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 27-Jun-16

Opinion is divided regarding the likely impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Financial markets were sold down in the wake of the "Brexit" referendum, and Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson warns of the potential for another financial crisis. However, Randal Jenneke of T Rowe Price does not expect Brexit to lead to an economic crisis, arguing that it is a political issue and a political crisis. Meanwhile, Investors Mutual’s Anton Tagliaferro says Brexit will have no impact on the majority of Australian-listed companies.

CORPORATES
WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, FTSE 100 INDEX, METAGE CAPITAL GLOBAL VALUE FUND, UNICREDIT SPA, BANCO POPOLARE, BANK OF IRELAND PLC, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, EUROPEAN COMMISSION

It’s a big short-term buying opportunity

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 24-Jun-16

Charles de Bolssezon of Societe Generale forecasts that the FTSE 100 will rally in coming months if the UK votes to remain in the European Union. However, the FTSE is tipped to shed about 15 per cent if Britons vote to leave the EU, while the S&P 500 will fall by 10 per cent. Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter says Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 would also fall sharply in the event of a "Brexit", but he adds that this would create buying opportunities for investors in the short-term.

CORPORATES
SOCIETE GENERALE SA, FTSE 100 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, FTSE 250 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, BANK OF ENGLAND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA warning on Brexit

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, James Chessell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Jun-16

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says there will be a global economic shock if the UK votes to leave the European Union, adding that the Coalition is best-placed to manage the Australian economy during such turmoil. Meanwhile, both major political parties have been briefed by the heads of the Reserve Bank, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the Treasury on the likely impact of a "Brexit" on the local financial market. The outcome of the referendum is tipped to be very close.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA