REVENUE – AUSTRALIA

Budget bottom line improves but is still bright red

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 17-Dec-25

The federal government’s Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook is expected to include a revised 2025-26 budget deficit of $36.8bn. This compares with the government’s forecast of a $42.2bn deficit ahead of the federal election in May. The MYEFO is also expected to show that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years will be $143.5bn, down from the pre-election forecast of $151.9bn. Government revenue has been boosted by a range of factors, including a surge in the gold price, higher-than-expected iron ore prices and an increase in personal income tax.

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Conservative commodity price forecasts offer revenue windfall

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the Treasury is continuing to adopt a conservative approach to commodity price forecasts. The budget’s revenue forecasts are based on expectations that the iron ore price will fall to $US60 per tonne at port by the end of March 2026; the price of the steel input is currently trading at around $US100 per tonne. UBS recently forecast that the iron ore price will remain within a range of $US90 to $US100/tonne for the next five years. The Treasury’s forecasts for other key commodities such as coal and LNG are also significantly below current prices.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Stalled spend lifts surplus to $15bn

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Original article by Jack Quail
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Oct-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has attributed the federal government’s higher-than-forecast budget surplus for 2023-24 to lower spending rather than increased taxes. The final budget outcome for 2023-24 has confirmed a surplus of $15.8bn, which is $9.3bn higher than was forecast in the May budget. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor claims that Labor is using temporary windfalls to boost the budget bottom line, adding that its two successive surpluses will be followed by a series of deficits. The government achieved significant savings by deferring expenditure in a range of areas in 2023-24; meanwhile, personal income tax revenue was $3.1bn lower than expected at $331.5bn and corporate tax receipts were $1.7bn below expectations at $141.2bn.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Hancock still No.1 on Top 500 list

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 3-Sep-24

Data from IBISWorld shows that Australia’s 500 largest private companies recorded combined revenue of $359.9bn in 2023-24; this is seven per cent higher than the previous financial year. Average revenue per company increased to an estimated $719.7m, compared with $672.6m previously. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has retained its title as the nation’s biggest unlisted company, with its revenue increasing by 3.9 per cent year-on-year to an estimated $14.9bn. Visy is ranked second with estimated revenue of $9.9bn.

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IBISWORLD PTY LTD, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, VISY INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

TV ad revenue tanks but broadcast video on demand offers hope

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Original article by James Madden
The Australian – Page: Online : 14-Aug-24

Data from ThinkTV shows that the combined advertising revenue of Australia’s commercial free-to-air broadcasters fell by 8.1 per cent in 2023-24, to $3.3bn. The figures cover metropolitan and regional free-to-air networks, plus their broadcast video-on-demand services; advertising-supported public broadcaster SBS is not included. The advertising revenue of metro and regional FTA networks fell by 12 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively. However, this was partially offset by a 12.7 per cent increase in BVOD ad revenue.

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THINK TV

Streaming ad revenue set to eclipse TV

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Original article by Kylar Loussikian
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 30-Jul-24

A report from PwC notes that revenue across Australia’s media industry has risen to $62.3bn in the last year, although growth in revenue slowed from 6.6 per cent to just 2.8 per cent. Meanwhile, PwC estimates that digital revenue now accounts for 70 per cent of advertising spending in the media sector, compared with 54 per cent in 2019; the firm has also forecast that this will increase to 79 per cent by 2028. PwC in turn expects advertising revenues from traditional TV broadcasts to fall to around $3.5bn by 2028, while revenue from subscription and ‘catch-up’ services is forecast to rise to a similar level within four years.

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PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD

Surplus bounty pushes tax take past 24pc

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 3-Jul-23

Record revenue from company and personal income taxes has resulted in the federal budget being in surplus by $19bn for the first 11 months of 2022-23, putting it on track for a surplus of around $20bn for the financial year. This compares with Treasury’s forecast of a $4.2bn surplus when the budget was released in early May. Economist Chris Richardson estimates that the tax-to-GDP ratio is currently around 24.2 per cent; it has breached the 24 per cent level for the first time since 2007-08, and Richardson believes that this could become a permanent trend. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has previously stated that he does not feel bound by the former Coalition government’s cap of 23.9 per cent, describing it as "arbitrary".

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Treasurer tipped for $114b revenue windfall

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Original article by Tom McIlroy, Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-Oct-22

Deloitte Access Economics has forecast that the federal government’s Budget on 25 October will include additional revenue of $114.4bn over four years. Deloitte also anticipates that government spending will be higher than expected, and the firm has forecast that cumulative underlying cash deficits will be $45.5bn lower over four years. Stephen Smith of Deloitte says the strength of the domestic economy is a key reason why Australia has emerged from the pandemic with a budget position that is far healthier than most of its peers.

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DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Lockdowns no barrier to budget tax jump

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Original article by John Kehoe, Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-Oct-21

The federal government has advised that the Budget deficit blew out to a record $134.2bn in 2020-21, although this is well below the government’s worst-case scenario forecasts. Meanwhile, data from the Department of Finance shows that the underlying cash deficit for the first two months of 2021-21 was $22bn, compared with a forecast of $28.1bn in the Budget in May. Government revenue for the period was $12.1bn higher than had been forecast in the Budget, with higher-than-expected revenue from personal and company taxes.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE

Iron ore surge a $100b elixir for coronavirus

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 21 : 9-Jun-20

The rally in the price of iron ore to more than $US100 a tonne will boost federal government revenue by about $2.3bn. The 2019-20 Budget forecasts were based on the iron ore price averaging about $US62 when shipping costs are included, but it is currently averaging more than $80 a tonne. Australia’s export revenue from iron ore is set to top $100bn in 2019-20, eclipsing the previous annual record of $76bn in 2018-19. Meanwhile, shares in Australia’s three major iron ore producers have rallied since the end of March, and investors are set to receive big dividend payouts for the financial year.

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BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG