STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

ASX stocks to fire as Fed kicks off cuts

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Original article by Gus McCubbing
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 17-Sep-25

Bond traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting this week. They are expect at least another four rate cuts over the next year, although David Bassanese from BetaShares and Sebastian Mullins from Schroders contend that the central bank will be less aggressive in reducing monetary policy. Meanwhile, Australian stocks are widely tipped to rally if the Federal Reserve does reduce the cast rate; Jun Bei Liu from Ten Cap says James Hardie Industries stands to benefit the most, given its exposure to the US housing market.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, TEN CAP INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

ASX faces bear market as profit recession looms

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 23-Apr-25

The S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed more than nine per cent since reaching a record high in mid-February. MST Marquee believes that the local bourse is set for a further decline; senior research analyst Hasan Tevfik says both corporate profits and economic growth are set to fall. The general consenus of market watchers is that companies in the ASX 200 will record earnings growth of about nine per cent in 2025-26, but MST anticipates a modest earnings contraction; this in turn will result in an earnings-per-share recession. Tevfik notes that Australia has experienced a bear market in each of the last six such recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MST MARQUEE

ASX 200 tops 8500 on Santa rally

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Original article by Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Dec-24

Tribeca Investment Partners portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu says the Black Friday sales should boost investor sentiment in the lead-up to Christmas. Liu notes that the S&P/ASX 200 consumer discretionary index gained seven per cent in November; it also rose by 1.2 per cent on Tuesday, contributing to the S&P/ASX 200’s rise above the 8,500-point level for the first time. Andrew Mitchell from Ophir Asset Management says Donald Trump’s presidential election win has prompted renewed optimism among investors in the US and Australia.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDEX, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

ASX tipped to test 8600 after shares surge

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 20-Nov-24

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 briefly rose above 8,400 points for the first time on Tuesday. The local bourse’s rally has prompted Morgan Stanley to upgrade its forecast for the ASX 200 at the end of 2025 to 8,500 points; its previous year-end target was 8,100. Tony Sycamore from IG Markets is more bullish, suggesting that the ASX 200 could potentially be trading at 8,600 points by the end of next year. However, JP Morgan recently forecast that the index will fall to 7,900 points by the end of 2025.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, IG MARKETS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Investors call time on ASX’s record rally

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 23-Oct-24

The Australian sharemarket has retreated from the record high of 8,384.5 points that it reached last week. The pullback follows a gain of 20 per cent over the last year, although Wall Street has risen by 39 per cent over the same period. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200’s price-earnings ratio has risen from 14.4 times to 18.3 times over the last year. There is growing speculation that the market’s rally cannot be sustained, given that earnings growth is tipped to be flat in 2024 and just five per cent in 2025.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Lithium stocks one deal away from rocketing, says broker

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 16-Oct-24

Data from S&P Global Platts shows that the spot price of spodumene is currently trading at around $US760 per tonne. However, E&P Financial Group forecasts that the price of spodumene will rise to $US850/tonne in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, and $US1,000/tonne in the third quarter. E&P analyst Adam Martin is also upbeat about the outlook for Australian-listed lithium stocks in the wake of Rio Tinto’s $9.9bn deal to acquire Arcadium Lithium.

CORPORATES
S&P GLOBAL PLATTS, E&P FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX EP1, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ARCADIUM LITHIUM PLC – ASX LTM

Fears ASX may have peaked after killer quarter

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Original article by Joshua Peach, Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 21 : 1-Oct-24

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 gained 6.5 per cent during the September quarter, with Zip Co, Orora and Guzman y Gomez among the best-performing stocks during the period. September was also a strong month for the local bourse, which reached new record highs in seven separate trading sessions and delivered the best return for the month since 2013. However, Jason Steed from JP Morgan is amongst those who believe that the Australian sharemarket may struggle to post further gains, noting that the earnings outlook is relatively weak.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, ZIP CO LIMITED – ASX ZIP, ORORA LIMITED – ASX ORA, GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED – ASX GYG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Lithium mine closures tip of iceberg as prices hit three-year low

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 27-Aug-24

Core Lithium, Albemarle and Arcadium Lithium are amongst the companies that have put projects on hold or scaled them back in response to the downturn in the price of the battery metal. The price of spodumene concentrate has fallen by 19 per cent so far in 2024, while carbonate prices in China are down 25 per cent. UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw says Core Lithium’s decision to place its Finniss project in ‘care and maintenance’ mode could be followed by similar action by rival producers if the spodumene price remains at the current level for some time. UBS has downgraded its share price targets for Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources; it also has a ‘sell’ recommendation on both stocks.

CORPORATES
CORE LITHIUM LIMITED – ASX CXO, ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, ARCADIUM LITHIUM PLC – ASX LTM, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN

Loss-making companies surge on ASX, baffling analysts

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 21-May-24

Shares in Australian-listed growth stocks that have low or zero profits have gained 26 per cent so far in 2024. In contrast, comparable stocks in the US have shed 19 per cent, with the inflation outlook causing a spike in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. Matthew Ross from Goldman Sachs says this divergence is difficult to explain, given that the Australian stocks have the same general characteristics that make them vulnerable to higher interest rates. Goldman Sachs has identified a number of high-growth S&P/ASX 300 companies that it believes are well-placed to ride out an extended period of higher borrowing costs.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 300 INDEX

ASX tipped to hit 8300 this year, defying rate talk

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Original article by Joanne Tran
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 7-May-24

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 reached a record high of 7,896.9 points in early April; despite the recent pullback it has still gained about 0.6 per cent so far in 2024. UBS equity strategist Richard Schellbach is amongst the market watchers who are bullish about the outlook for the ASX 200, forecasting that it will top 8,000 points by the end of this year. VanEck Australia in turn has a year-end target of 8,300 points, while David Bassanese from Betashares expects the index to reach 8,250 by the end of 2024.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VANECK AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED