Rate cut to spur ASX to even greater heights

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 30 : 7-Jun-19

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has gained more than12 per cent so far in 2019, including a one per cent gain since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate on 4 June. The first interest rate cut in almost three years may provide the catalyst for further sharemarket gains, particularly given the higher yields at present from equities than bonds and cash products such as term deposits. There is also growing expectations of further monetary policy easing before the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ASX surge isn’t over yet, but there are dangers

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 28-May-19

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has gained 14 per cent so far in 2019, closing at around 6,452 points on 27 May, and some analysts expect it to rise further. Citigroup now expects the benchmark index to top 6,700 points by the end of the year and reach the 6,850-point level by mid-2020. However, Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley expects the local bourse to experience a ‘cooling off period’ following its recent peak at a 12-year high.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Big four reap gains and reward contrarians

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 2-May-19

The S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index has gained nearly 15 per cent since late December, following a sell-off in the wake of the misconduct exposed by the Hayne royal commission. Tony Brennan of Citigroup says bank stocks still represent a buying opportunity for investors, even though the sector continues to face headwinds. Meanwhile, JP Morgan notes that banks’ revenue may come under pressure if the cash rate is reduced more than once in coming months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Confession season to give rally a reality check

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 30-Apr-19

The Australian sharemarket has had its best start to a calendar year since 1991, despite retreating on 29 April. However, the banks’ reporting season will be the next key test for the local bourse, along with trading updates from other listed companies. Meanwhile, the consensus forecast for growth in earnings per share in 2019 is 2.8 per cent, compared with 8.4 per cent at the same time in 2018.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

FOMO or TINA? Stocks hit seven-month high but rocky road ahead

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 24-Apr-19

The S&P/ASX 200 has gained 12 per cent so far in 2019, making its best start to a calendar year in two decades. The benchmark index is now trading on a 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 15.75 times, compared with a long-term average of around 14 times. Although ‘fear of missing out’ has been a key driver of the domestic market, ‘there is no alternative’ to shares has probably also played a role in the recent rise. However, investors should also be mindful of the adage ‘sell in May and go away’.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Analysts predict iron ore prices have hit peak

Original article by Cole Latimer
The Age – Page: 25 : 24-Apr-19

UBS has forecast that the iron ore price will average $US83 per tonne in 2019, warning that the steel input’s recent high of around $US93/tonne is not sustainable. The investment bank says recent supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall over the next 12 months. Expectations of a lower iron ore price have also contributed to UBS’s decision to downgrade its recommendation on BHP’s shares from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’. PhillipCapital expects iron ore to average $US78/tonne in 2019.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, PHILLIP CAPITAL LIMITED, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Rate cut to avoid poll date as economy becomes battleground

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 29 : 12-Apr-19

Financial markets have priced in a 25 basis point reduction in official interest rates by October, although the chances of a rate cut during the federal election campaign are seen to be low. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says historical analysis shows that movements in global sharemarkets tend to have a bigger impact on the local bourse than the outcome of a federal election. However, he notes that Labor’s policies such as income tax and franking credit reforms may weigh on shares and the Australian dollar.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Citi slaps 6500 target on ASX 200 by year’s end

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 29-Mar-19

Citigroup is bullish about the outlook for the S&P/ASX 200, forecasting that it will end 2019 at 6,500 points and reach 6,650 points by mid-2020. The benchmark index has gained 9.4 per cent so far in the first quarter of 2019, following a nine per cent decline in the December 2018 quarter. Citigroup is particularly upbeat about the resources sector. Meanwhile, Andrew Garthwaite of Credit Suisse has upgraded his recommendation on resources stocks from ‘neutral’ to ‘overweight’.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Shares on track for bumper quarter

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 30 : 22-Mar-19

The S&P/ASX 200 has gained 9.2 per cent so far in 2019, putting it on track for the best quarterly return since 2009. The rebound follows a loss of 6.9 per cent for the benchmark index in calendar 2018, including a nine per cent loss in the fourth quarter. However, Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley is bearish about the outlook for the local bourse, forecasting that the S&P/ASX 200 will end the year at 5,800 points. He also forecasts economic growth of just two per cent in 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX, SUPERRATINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ASX’s most shorted stocks set for results reporting test

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 11-Feb-19

Some of the Australian sharemarket’s most heavily shorted companies will release their latest financial results in the week beginning 11 February, including JB Hi-Fi, Super Retail Group, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and AMP. JB Hi-Fi is the most shorted S&P/ASX 200 stock, and Jun Bei Liu of Tribeca Investment Partners notes that the retail trading environment is challenging at present. Meanwhile, ASX 200 trading volumes were 11 per cent higher than average during the first week of the reporting season, as fund managers returned to the market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, FIRETRAIL INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX CWY, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, CYBG PLC – ASX CYB, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, NICK SCALI LIMITED – ASX NCK, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY