STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

ASX’s $100b rally could be far from over, analysts predict

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Original article by Jessica Sier, Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 19-Oct-17

The Australian sharemarket had been range-bound since May, but a rally in the last nine trading sessions has increased its capitalisation by about $A100bn. JP Morgan’s Jason Steed says the near-term outlook for the local bourse will depend to a large extent on financial and mining stocks, which dominate the market. However, Steed adds that investors are looking for greater political certainty, particularly with regard to issues such as energy policy and regulation of the banking sector.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TOKYO STOCK PRICE INDEX, DEUTSCHER AKTIEN INDEX

Global shares still look best for capital growth

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 10-Oct-17

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has gained 1.3 per cent so far in 2017, compared with an 8.2 per cent gain for the MSCI All Country World index in Australian dollar terms. Most analysts expect global equities to continue to outperform Australian stocks in the near-term, although Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter remains upbeat about the outlook for the local market. He notes that investors are likely to reinvest some of the $A23.7bn worth of dividends that have been paid in recent weeks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Why Coppo says to buy banks now

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 6-Oct-17

Richard Coppleson of Bell Financial Group says investors should consider buying Australian bank stocks in October for their dividend yield. He says historical analysis shows that bank stocks have not posted gains during the month of October in just four years since 2000, and three of those occasions were due to the global financial crisis. He attributes the generally strong performance of bank stocks during October to the fact that they among the few stocks that trade ex-dividend in November.

CORPORATES
BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LONG-TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Get ready for a lost decade for shares

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 5-Oct-17

The key US sharemarket indices are trading at record highs, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is now trading slightly below its level at the start of 2017. At 5,652 points, the local bourse remains well below its record high of 6,828 on 1 November 2007. Independent investment analyst Boris Pogos notes that there have been a number of other periods during which the Australian sharemarket has delivered a negative return over 10 years or more, and these trends suggest that the all-time record high may not be breached until at least 2020.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, RUSSELL 2000 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Kim’s bomb the bleak balance for the upbeat

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 4-Sep-17

Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says there is potential for equity markets to experience a correction, although this could depend on the response to North Korea’s test of a hydrogen bomb. Meanwhile, Oliver says profit growth in Australia remains significantly lower than in the US, Europe and Japan. He anticipates GDP growth of 0.5 per cent for the quarter and 1.5 per cent growth year-on-year. A survey by Bloomberg shows that the general consensus is for GDP growth of 0.7 per cent for the quarter and 1.8 per cent for the year to June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Cooling property market good for Domain, REA

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 28-Jul-17

Online real estate advertising groups REA and Domain will benefit from any slowdown in the Australian residential property sector, according to David Kaynes of Citigroup. He says this is because agents may have to place a listing advertisement more than once before a property is sold if the market starts to cool off. Citigroup’s share target price for REA is $A80, while its target price for Domain parent Fairfax Media is $A1.10.

CORPORATES
REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, DOMAIN.COM.AU, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, TPG CAPITAL LP, HELLMAN AND FRIEDMAN

Small caps ‘offer best opportunity’

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 27-Jul-17

Allan Gray Australia’s Simon Mawhinney is upbeat about the outlook for small-capitalisation stocks, forecasting that they are set to outperform their larger peers. Smaller Australian companies have tended to have lower returns over the last several decades, but Mawhinney expects non-S&P/ASX 100 companies to outperform over the next five years. Allan Gray particularly likes stocks such as Capral, Mineral Deposits and HT&E.

CORPORATES
ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 100 INDEX, CAPRAL LIMITED – ASX CAA, MINERAL DEPOSITS LIMITED – ASX MDL, HT&E LIMITED – ASX HT1, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 300 ACCUMULATION INDEX

Party over with bondcano ready to erupt

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 6-Jul-17

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries peaked at 2.35 per cent in early July 2017, compared with a record low of 1.32 per cent in mid-2016. Credit Suisse forecasts that the yield will reach 2.8 per cent by the end of 2017, as some of the world’s leading central banks begin tightening monetary policy. Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse warns that Australian-listed "bond proxy" stocks in particular are vulnerable to rising bond yields.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, APA GROUP – ASX APA, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, AUSNET SERVICES LIMITED – ASX AST, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP – ASX MQA, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, INVESTA OFFICE FUND – ASX IOF, BWP TRUST – ASX BWP, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED – ASX ECX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF ENGLAND, BANK OF CANADA, INSTITUTE FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT

Will the RBA join the global rates party?

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 3-Jul-17

Futures pricing suggest that the Australian sharemarket will be bolstered by a positive lead from Wall Street when trading resumes on 3 July. The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy meeting will be a key focus for investors in coming days, although the cash rate is expected to be left on hold in July. Meanwhile, Australian retail sales, building approvals and trade data will be released during the next week.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, UNITED STATIONERS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, NIKE INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Domestic woes to weigh on stocks

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 30-Jun-17

Australia’s S&P/ ASX200 index has gained 10.8 per cent in 2016-17, with resources stocks generally performing well while defensive stocks have disappointed. JP Morgan Asset Management’s Kerry Craig notes that some stocks have failed to match their first-half performance in the second half of the financial year. He adds that sector-specific issues and the Australian economy are likely to weigh on the sharemarket in 2017-18.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED – ASX A2M, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, BELLAMY’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX BAL, DEUTSCHE BANK AG