STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Investors wary of copycat state bank levies

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 31 : 23-Jun-17

Shares in Australian banks rose on 22 June, although they failed to retain early gains after the South Australian Government moved to impose a levy on banks’ state liabilities. Bank stocks are likely to be sold down in the near-term amid concern that other states could seek to balance their budgets via a levy on the sector. However, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed just 3.7 per cent during May and June 2017 – well below the five-year average loss of 4.4 per cent – and the local bourse traditionally performs well in July.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MSCI INCORPORATED, MSCI ASIA-PACIFIC EX-JAPAN INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED

Slowdown is not a meltdown

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 5-Jun-17

The Australian sharemarket fell 2.7 per cent during May 2017, compared with a 1.4 per cent gain for the S&P 500. The upcoming release of GDP data will be the next test for the market, with expectations that the economy expanded by 0.3 per cent during the March quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. Weak consumer spending and doubts regarding the outlook for the housing market are key concerns for investors at present, although David Cassidy of UBS says fears about a housing market collapse are not warranted.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Bumps in the road: no straightforward path to 6000

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 31 : 5-May-17

The S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated below the 5,900-point level on 4 May 2017, after closing within sight of 6,000 points earlier in the week. The consensus of market analysts is that it will rise to around 6,000 in the next year, while Bloomberg’s consensus target has been increased to 6,026.8 points. However, the local sharemarket faces a number of headwinds, including the prospect of interest rate rises in both Australia and the US at some point, while Tim Baker of Deutsche Bank anticipates an eventual correction of five per cent of more.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BLOOMBERG LP, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX PGH, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, VOCUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX VOC, THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SGR, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, APA GROUP – ASX APA, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED – ASX ECX, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC

External factors align for a ‘buying opportunity’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 19-Apr-17

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index remained above the technically important 5,830- point level on 18 April 2017, despite a further downturn in the iron ore price. However, the local sharemarket has fallen by just 2.2 per cent since its recent peak of 5,950.1, and it could still test the 6,000-point level for the first time since 2008. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley remains bearish about the outlook for the local market, and the firm still expects the S&P/ASX 200 to fall to 5,450 by the end of the year.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Wall Street could stop ASX bull run

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 11-Apr-17

The S&P/ASX 200’s rise above the 5,900-point level has prompted renewed speculation that it could test 6,000 points. However, the near-term outlook for the benchmark index will depend on the US earnings season, and data from Bloomberg shows that the number of companies that have provided earnings guidance in the last month has fallen to the lowest level since 1999. Meanwhile, borrowings costs may rise as offshore investors bail out of US treasuries and the Federal Reserve prepares to divest $US2.46trn worth of treasuries.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, THOMSON REUTERS PLC, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT

Pause ahead of next Fed rate decision

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 13-Mar-17

The US Federal Reserve is widely tipped to increase official interest rates in the week beginning 13 March 2017, and sharemarket trading volumes are likely to be subdued ahead of the monetary policy meeting. Stronger-than-expected growth in US jobs in February will strengthen the case for a rate rise. In contrast, most economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate on hold in 2017. Meanwhile, Capital Economics forecasts that the iron ore price will fall to around $US45 per tonne.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Earnings season shows bourse’s pillars are solid

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 31 : 16-Feb-17

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed above 5,800 points on 15 February 2017, bolstered by strong earnings results by a number of blue-chip stocks. The local bourse is now underperforming the US market by less than two per cent, recovering from a disappointing performance in January. The S&P/ASX 200 could test the 6,000-point level if the reporting season continues to deliver good results, and Richard Copple­son of Bell Potter still expects it to reach 6,300 points by the end of 2017.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Analysts suspect $65bn lift by big four banks has run its course

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Daniel Palmer
The Australian – Page: 21 : 13-Jan-17

Australia’s four major banks have enjoyed double-digit rises in their share prices since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Their combined market capitalisation has risen by $A65bn in the last two months, prompting analysts to question whether the rally will continue. Jarrod Martin of Credit Suisse notes that shares in the "big four" are now close to fair value, although the firm is upbeat about the outlook for the banks. It anticipates earnings growth of four per cent and has upgraded its share price targets.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED

Blue sky for miners, banks tipped in year ahead

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 23-Dec-16

The S&P/ASX 200 share index rose 0.5 per cent to 5,643.9 points on 22 December 2016. T Rowe Price head of Australian equities Randal Jenneke is optimistic about the stockmarket’s future performance. He expects the S&P/ASX 200 to rise as much as eight per cent by mid-2016. Mining and finance stocks are likely to perform strongly while "defensive yield" stocks will underperform.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Bullish Goldman likes resources

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 34 : 9-Dec-16

Investment bank Goldman Sachs is upbeat about the outlook for the Australian sharemarket in 2017, noting indications that the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is experiencing an earnings upgrade cycle. Goldman Sachs expects market trends that have emerged toward the end of 2016 to continue in 2017, albeit at a slower pace. The firm has adopted an "overweight" position with regard to banking, resources and cyclical stocks, while it remains bearish about so-called bond proxy stocks.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SKC, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, APA GROUP – ASX APA, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB, HOTEL PROPERTIES INVESTMENTS – ASX HPI, CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC