STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Reporting season may test resilience of ASX

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 8-Aug-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to gain 31 points when trading resumes on 8 August 2016, following a positive lead from Wall Street. The reporting season will continue to be a focus for investors in the coming week, with the Commonwealth Bank, REA Group, Telstra and Cochlear among the companies that are slated to release their latest financial result. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monthly board meeting and Chinese economic data will also attract investors’ attention.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, AGL PETROLEUM, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, TD SECURITIES

Citi’s Brennan tips resilience in earnings growth

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 34 : 29-Jul-16

The Australian sharemarket currently boasts a forward price-earnings ratio of 16.6 times, but some market watchers expect that the August 2016 reporting season will justify the high earnings multiple. Tony Brennan of Citigroup is upbeat about the reporting season, saying the positive earnings surprises are likely to outweigh the negative surprises. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed at 5556.6 on 27 July, although Brennan expects it to end the year at about 5,500. However, he forecasts that it will rise to 5,750 by mid-2017.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, APPLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED

Investors focus on inflation, central banks

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 25-Jul-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to gain about four points when trading resumes on 25 July 2016. The local bourse is likely to benefit from a positive lead from Wall Street, having lost ground in the previous trading session. Investors will be awaiting the upcoming release of inflation data for the June quarter, which could provide guidance on the Reserve Bank’s next move on the interest rate front. The US Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy statement will also be closely scrutinised by investors.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, BANK OF JAPAN

Domino’s dining out as Eagle Boys hit the wall

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Original article by Daniel Palmer
The Australian – Page: 21 : 21-Jul-16

Shares in Domino’s Pizza Enterprises closed 2.2 per cent higher at a new high of $A73.35 on 20 July 2016, in the wake of a rival’s collapse. Thomas Kierath of Morgan Stanley says the group could increase its market share following the demise of Eagle Boys Pizza, while Michael Simotas of Deutsche Bank notes that Domino’s could be blocked from acquiring Pizza Boys franchises on competition grounds. Morgan Stanley has an "overweight" recommendation on Domino’s shares, while Deutsche has a "hold" rating.

CORPORATES
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, EAGLE BOYS PIZZA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, PIZZA HUT AUSTRALIA, PIZZA CAPERS, CRUST GOURMET PTY LTD, NBC CAPITAL PTY LTD

Australian bourse charts course higher but big tests ahead

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 19-Jul-16

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has rallied in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, rising above 5,400 points. Listed gold producers in particular have risen strongly amid the global trend toward "safe haven" assets, although the broader materials sector has also performed well. Meanwhile, the local market may benefit from the US equities rally, while the upturn in commodity prices in 2016 and Australia’s upcoming August corporate reporting season bode well for domestic shares.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IG MARKETS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, RIVKIN SECURITIES PTY LTD

Investors to shrug off events in Turkey

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 18-Jul-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to shed about 11 points when trading resumes on 18 July 2016, in response to growing geopolitical tensions worldwide. With a dearth of upcoming local economic data, investors will be awaiting the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting. Meanwhile,, the latest US economic data may provide some guidance on the timing of any change in US monetary policy.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL EMERGING MARKETS INDEX, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA

Expensive defensives ‘threatened’

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 11 : 12-Jul-16

Paul Ashworth of Cameron Harrison is among the financial market experts who question whether the rally in defensive stocks can be sustained. Defensive sectors such as healthcare, utilities and industrials have posted double-digit gains over the last year, while the broader Australian sharemarket has shed three per cent. Prime Value Asset Management’s ST Wong notes that some stocks such as infrastructure and utilities are now trading at high forward price-earnings ratios, but he says they could post further gains if the bond rally continues.

CORPORATES
CAMERON HARRISON PTY LTD, PRIME VALUE ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, ALTIUM LIMITED – ASX ALU, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, INFIGEN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX IFN, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED – ASX IDX, VIRTUS HEALTH LIMITED – ASX VRT, ORORA LIMITED – ASX ORA, VITA GROUP LIMITED – ASX VTG

ASX tipped to hit 5500 by end of 2016

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 11-Jul-16

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse says Australian shares are relatively cheap at present, in comparison to alternative investments such as cash and bonds. Tevfik adds that the prospect of further official interest rate cuts should also prompt investors to switch to equities. Meanwhile, UBS notes that the market’s price-to-book value is now 13 per cent below the long-term average, and about 50 per cent lower in the case of resources stocks. UBS’s David Cassidy expects the market to be trading at around 5,500 points by the end of 2016.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC

Hung parliament syndrome: Lessons from Gillard in 2010

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 5-Jul-16

The potential for a hung parliament following the 2016 federal election is likely to weigh on investor sentiment in the near-term, although equities quickly recovered after a sell-off in the wake of the 2010 election. The prospect of another obstructive Senate in particular is a concern for investors, as it is likely to affect the timing of a return to a Budget surplus. However, financial markets are proving to be resilient to risk factors, as the rebound following the UK’s "Brexit" referendum demonstrates.

CORPORATES
WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION

Election shock means tougher job for RBA

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 4-Jul-16

The Australian sharemarket is expected to lose ground when trading resumes on 4 July 2016. Uncertainly regarding the outcome of the federal election is likely to weigh on investor sentiment, while the Australian dollar is tipped to fall after peaking at $US0.7503 in local trading on 1 July. Stephen Walters of the Australian Institute of Company Directors says Australia’s "AAA" credit rating may be reviewed as a result of the election. Meanwhile, economists say the Reserve Bank is now unlikely to reduce the cash rate in July.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, FIIG SECURITIES LIMITED, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET