STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Sell-off is prime time for buying

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Original article by Jessica Sier, Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Jun-16

Shares in British and Irish banks have fallen sharply in the wake of the "Brexit" referendum, but Platinum Asset Management’s Clay Smolinski says this has created a buying opportunity for investors. Meanwhile, Aurora Funds Management’s Hugh Dive says the fallout from the UK’s vote to leave the European Union should have little impact on the Australian sharemarket and the nation’s four major banks. He notes that the local banks have less reliance on wholesale funding from Europe than during the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM, AURORA FUNDS MANAGEMENT LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF IRELAND PLC, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

Europe aftershocks set to rattle the globe

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 24-Jun-16

Futures traders expect Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to be flat or rise slightly when trading resumes on 27 June 2016. However, European sharemarkets and the British pound could be further sold down in the next week, in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, Paul Bloxham of HSBC expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate on hold in July, noting that low inflation remains the central bank’s focus.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BANK OF ENGLAND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, LOMBARD STREET RESEARCH LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER

Recession in Europe a ‘very scary’ prospect

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, James Chessell, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 27-Jun-16

Opinion is divided regarding the likely impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Financial markets were sold down in the wake of the "Brexit" referendum, and Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson warns of the potential for another financial crisis. However, Randal Jenneke of T Rowe Price does not expect Brexit to lead to an economic crisis, arguing that it is a political issue and a political crisis. Meanwhile, Investors Mutual’s Anton Tagliaferro says Brexit will have no impact on the majority of Australian-listed companies.

CORPORATES
WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, FTSE 100 INDEX, METAGE CAPITAL GLOBAL VALUE FUND, UNICREDIT SPA, BANCO POPOLARE, BANK OF IRELAND PLC, GREAT BRITAIN. OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Stocks most at risk if Britain leaves the EU

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 16-Jun-16

Australian-listed companies that derive some of their earnings in the British pound may be affected if the UK opts to exit the European Union. Henderson Group has already been heavily sold down in the lead-up to the referendum, while other stocks that could potentially fall include CYBG and Westfield Corporation. However, Paul Taylor of Fidelity says a "Brexit" would result in a global sell-off, rather than the targeting of individual stocks.

CORPORATES
HENDERSON GROUP PLC – ASX HGG, CYBG PLC – ASX CYB, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, IRESS LIMITED – ASX IRE, FIDELITY INVESTMENTS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, YORKSHIRE BANK PLC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Shares could tumble back through 5000 barrier, charts suggest

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 16-Jun-16

The Australian sharemarket has shed around four per cent since reaching 5,400 points in late May 2016, and technical analysis suggests that the S&P/ASX 200 could test the 5,000-point level. Angela Mangan of QMG says 5,300 was the benchmark index’s most recent technical support level. Angus Nicholson of IG Markets says 5,000 will become the next technical support level if the index falls below 5,200, and he notes the psychological importance of the 5,000-point level to investors.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, QMG PTY LTD, IG MARKETS LIMITED, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, DEUTSCHER AKTIEN INDEX, CAC 40 INDEX

Minority rule would knock confidence

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 9-Jun-16

The 2016 federal election remains too close to call, raising the prospect of a hung parliament or a minority government. Analysts warn that investor sentiment would be affected by a minority government, with Chris Nicol and Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley noting that both business and consumer confidence were hit during the tenure of the previous minority government between 2010 and 2013. Analysis by Citigroup concludes that the Coalition is likely to win the election, although the Australian Labor Party could gain around 10 seats.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC

Forget May, June’s the time to sell and go away

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 1-Jun-16

The Australian sharemarket has gained nearly 10 per cent since 11 April 2016, which equates to more than 450 points. However, fund managers do not expect the recent rally to be sustained in June, citing factors such as the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US in coming months. Tax loss selling and portfolio rebalancing in the lead-up to the end of the financial year will also influence the near-term direction of the market.

CORPORATES
UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, PEAK ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS LIMITED – ASX LNG, CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED – ASX CAJ, 1-PAGE LIMITED – ASX 1PG, CARDNO LAWSON TRELOAR PTY LTD, CUDECO LIMITED – ASX CDU

National accounts, US data to steer market sentiment

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 30-May-16

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to gain 23 points when trading resumes on 30 May 2016, after the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed above 5,400 in the previous trading session. Local economic figures to be released in the coming week includes current account and GDP data for the March quarter, while investors will also be awaiting the release of key US economic indicators, including the latest wages and consumer confidence data.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLOOMBERG LP, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, SECURITIES INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION

ASX earnings likely to get better, say fund managers

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 27-May-16

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has gained almost 10 per cent in the last seven weeks, prompting speculation as to whether the rally can be sustained. The market is now trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 16 times earnings, compared with its long-run average of around 14 times. However, Nader Naeimi of AMP Capital is upbeat about the earnings outlook for listed companies, and notes that even a modest increase in earnings will be sufficient to bolster the market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, BEL-RAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FIDELITY INVESTMENTS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, EQUITY TRUSTEES LIMITED – ASX EQT

Flight Centre slides as brokers cut forecasts

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 25-May-16

Shares in Flight Centre Travel Group have shed 13.5 per cent in two trading sessions, in the wake of an earnings downgrade. The stock closed five per cent lower at $A31.88 on 24 May 2016. Deutsche Bank has reduced its 12-month share price target by 25 per cent to $A36, while Bell Potter’s target price has been slashed by 12 per cent to $A35.70. Deutsche has also reduced its recommendation on the stock from "buy" to "hold".

CORPORATES
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, AUNT BETTY