STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Brokers say shares will come back

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Jan-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has shed 7.9 per cent so far in 2016, closing at 4,892 points on 15 January. However, opinion is divided about the outlook for the local bourse in 2016. Morgan Stanley expects the benchmark index to end the year at 4,800 points, while Macquarie Group has a year-end forecast of 5,900 points. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the index to end the year at 5,500 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, MORPHIC ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, DELTEC, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX

Packer privatisation push to buoy Crown

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Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 16 : 12-Jan-16

Shares in Crown Resorts closed $A0.11 higher at $A11.87 on 11 January 2016. Sacha Krien and Anthony Longo of CLSA have concluded that the casino operator is currently trading at a discount to fair value, and suggest that there is a "reasonable chance" that Crown will be privatised by 53 per cent shareholder James Packer. CLSA has upgraded its share price target by seven per cent, to $A13.38.

CORPORATES
CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MELCO CROWN ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Biotech index outperformance in 2015 points to opportunities

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 8-Jan-16

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index shed 2.7 per cent during 2015. However, an index of 40 biotechnology companies which was compiled by "Biotech Daily" gained 22 per cent. ImpediMed, Opthea, Nanosonics, Starpharma and Mesoblast are among the biotechnology stocks that could potentially perform well in 2016.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BIOTECH DAILY, IMPEDIMED LIMITED – ASX IPD, OPTHEA LIMITED – ASX OPT, NANOSONICS LIMITED – ASX NAN, STARPHARMA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SPL, MESOBLAST LIMITED – ASX MSB, HATCHTECH PTY LTD, SPINIFEX PHARMACEUTICALS PTY LTD, FIBROTECH THERAPEUTICS PTY LTD, QRXPHARMA LIMITED – ASX QRX, OSPREY MEDICAL INCORPORATED – ASX OSP, GI DYNAMICS INCORPORATED – ASX GID, CANACCORD GENUITY (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD

Credit Suisse picks 2016 stocks, predicts ASX at 6000 end next year

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Original article by Stephen Cauchi
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-Dec-15

Credit Suisse is upbeat about the Australian sharemarket in 2016, forecasting that the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index will rise to the 6,000-point level by the end of the calendar year. The firm expects more companies to pursue strategies such as mergers/acquisitions and cost reductions. It has identified Macquarie Group, Nine Entertainment Company, AGL Energy, Carsales.com, Aristocrat Leisure and Lend Lease as stocks that should perform well in 2016.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CAR, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO

Do the numbers add up for a Santa rally?

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 2-Dec-15

Despite a strong performance by the S&P/ASX 200 on 1 December 2015, the prospects for the Australian sharemarket experiencing a "Santa rally" remain uncertain. The local market has risen on 10 consecutive trading days just twice since the inception of the current benchmark index, and it has not recorded a nine-day winning run since 2004. Historical analysis shows that the local market gains an average of 2.03 per cent in the month of December.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, BLOOMBERG LP

AGM downgrades but growth likely

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 24-Nov-15

Analysis by Citigroup shows that 36 Australian-listed companies have upgraded their earnings guidance during the 2015 AGM season, and 42 have issued downgrades. Citigroup’s Tony Brennan notes that earnings-per-share forecasts have been reduced by about one per cent overall. Citigroup now expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at 5,900 points at the end of 2016, compared with its previous forecast of 6,200.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

Stocks set to tumble after French terror

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 16-Nov-15

Global sharemarkets are expected to be heavily sold down on 16 November 2015, as investors opt for lower-risk assets in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed at 5,051.25 on 13 November, and futures markets had already anticipated a fall below the 5,000-point level prior to the terrorist attacks. AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver does expect any downturn in the Australian market to be sustained, although he says resources stocks are likely to fall further.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PEAK ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, HASSIUM ASSET MANAGEMENT, CAC 40 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BLOOMBERG LP

Woolies drop raises fears of price war

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 3-Nov-15

Shareholders in Australian-listed food and grocery retailers fear that a price war may erupt again, threatening the value of their investments. UBS analyst Ben Gilbert believes that the risk of a price war is quite real, considering that the companies are determined to defend their market share. Woolworths shares declined two per cent on 2 November 2015 to a four-year low of $A23.60.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES GROUP LIMITED, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, ASDA GROUP PLC, LIDL GMBH & CO KG, TESCO PLC, J SAINSBURY PLC, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD

Market flags as rate cuts lose potency

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 3-Nov-15

The Australian sharemarket had another bad day on 2 November 2015, with the S&P/ASX200 index falling to 5,165.8 points. The index was close to 6,000 points in April. The charts suggest that the index could decline to below 5,100. Risks include doubts about China’s manufacturing sector; a likely increase in the GST, and a possible drought in Queensland.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS

Banks shares set to rise as investors focus on dividends

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 8-Oct-15

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Banks Index has shed 20 per cent since April 2015, and Macquarie says the downturn in bank share prices has created a buying opportunity for investors. Macquarie expects the forthcoming dividend payouts by National Australia Bank, Westpac and the ANZ Bank will drive investor activity in the banking sector, which in turn should boost the share prices of bank stocks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY