STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

CBA, CSL and Macquarie Group on track for $100 shares

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Original article by Simon Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 22-Jan-15

Shares in CSL and the Commonwealth Bank are currently trading at about $A84. While they have recently retreated from 12-months peaks, both stocks could potentially rise to $A100. CSL previously undertook a share split after its stock rose to $A100 in late 2007. Arnhem Investment Management’s George Clapham suggests that in many cases a demerger rather than a share split may generate more value for shareholders. Macquarie Group’s shares are currently trading above $A60, and the stock is also a potential candidate to breach $A100

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, ORORA LIMITED – ASX ORA, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, RECALL HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX REC, IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ELDERS LIMITED – ASX ELD, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCORPORATED

Gerry Harvey upbeat on retail sales outlook

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 15-Jan-15

Citigroup’s Craig Woolford estimates that Australian retailers generally enjoyed same-store sales growth of 2-3 per cent during the 2014 Christmas and New Year period. Harvey Norman recorded strong growth in sales, according to chairman Gerry Harvey, and he is optimistic about the group’s prospects for 2015. Harvey Norman shares closed $A0.23 higher at $A3.69 on 14 January, and Merrill Lynch has upgraded its share price target to $A4

CORPORATES
HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, INCU PTY LTD, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX PMV, PETER ALEXANDER SLEEPWEAR PTY LTD, JUST JEANS PTY LTD, PORTMANS PTY LTD, SMIGGLE PTY LTD, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, NET-A-PORTER.COM LIMITED, MR PORTER

ASX stocks tipped to lag world

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 14-Jan-15

The MSCI World Accumulation Index has significantly outperformed Australia’s S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index over the last year and a five-year period. Fund managers expect international stocks to deliver better returns again in 2015, with Australian resources and banking stocks in particular likely to weigh on returns. PM Capital’s Ashley Pittard says that unlike global markets, the Australian sharemarket is in a corrective phase

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL WORLD ACCUMULATION INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES ACCUMULATION INDEX, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM, PETERS MACGREGOR INVESTMENTS LIMITED, ALTIUM LIMITED – ASX ALU, STREAM GROUP LIMITED – ASX SGO, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG

Medibank on the way to $3

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 7-Jan-15

The shares of Medibank Private on 6 January 2015 closed 1.7% lower at $A2.35. The health insurer was recently floated with an issue price of $A2.15 for institutional investors and $A2 for small retail ones. Most analysts have placed negative or neutral recommendations on the stock, and the consensus price target is $A2.30. However Tim Lawson of Macquarie Bank is more bullish with $A2.62 and a "buy" rating, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Toby Langley also recommends accumulating the stock and predicts it to reach $A3

CORPORATES
MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN

Who’ll pick next year’s best stocks: fundies or brokers?

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 19-Dec-14

Fund managers and stockbrokers have issued lists of the most promising stocks among Australian-listed companies. The most popular is Aurizon. It appears on many lists of the best shares. Fund managers avoid consumer stocks such as Flight Centre Travel, Myer Holdings, JB Hi-Fi, Metcash and Harvey Norman. Stockbrokers expect a rebound in mining stocks such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Iluka Resources and Oil Search

CORPORATES
AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX AZJ, CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Funds predict tough times ahead for local shares

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 19-Nov-14

Paradice Investment Management founder David Paradice is among the fund managers who forecast lower earnings growth in Australia during 2015. Geoff Wilson of Wilson Asset Management expects the Australian sharemarket to be lower at the end of 2015, while Damien Boey of Credit Suisse says factors such as the weaker Australian economy and the fall in commodity prices will prompt at least one more interest rate cut

CORPORATES
PARADICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, INFOMEDIA LIMITED – ASX IFM, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

A-REITs outperform

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 12-Nov-14

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index gained 6.8 per cent in October 2014, recovering from a sharp sell-off early in the month. Morgan Stanley has an overweight position on a number of listed property trusts, while Goldman Sachs has a "buy" rating on Mirvac Group, DEXUS Property Group, GPT Group, Hotel Properties Investments and Goodman Group

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, HOTEL PROPERTIES INVESTMENTS – ASX HPI, BWP TRUST – ASX BWP, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, NOVION PROPERTY GROUP – ASX NVN, FEDERATION CENTRES – ASX FDC, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, NATIONAL STORAGE REIT – ASX NSR, ARENA REIT – ASX ARF, STANDARD AND POOR’S (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, INVESTA OFFICE FUND – ASX IOF, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT – ASX CQR, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Citi, ANZ price forecast grim for high-cost iron ore

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 12-Nov-14

The ANZ Bank’s Mark Pervan doubts that the iron ore price will return to $US100 per tonne, and forecasts that the steel input will trade at $US78/tonne in 2015. Citigroup expects the iron ore price to trade at $US65/tonne in 2015 and 2016. The firm has downgraded its recommendation on Atlas Iron and Mount Gibson Iron stock from "neutral" to "sell", and Fortescue Metals Group has been downgraded from "buy" to "neutral"

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Shares still compelling as ageing population chases income

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 24-Oct-14

Experts advise investors to focus on equities that are likely to benefit from so-called megatrends such as population growth, ageing societies and the rising of the middle class. Yield will be the primary consideration for investors. With a 10-year government bond yielding only about 3.2 per cent, investors are likely to choose equities instead

CORPORATES
SANOFI PHARMACEUTICALS, COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY, JOHNSON AND JOHNSON, SABMILLER PLC, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Rush for exits belies optimism

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 24 : 17-Sep-14

Fund managers are cautious about the strong activity in the Australian sharemarket. In the third quarter of 2014, IPOs have reached a record $US2.4 billion. Private equity firms are also exiting as escrow periods expire. Debt capital market activity reached $US99 billion between 1 January and 15 September, while merger and acquisition deals are worth $US8.5 billion. Fund managers said that private equity firms are taking the opportunity to exit in a strong market, but investors may be becoming complacent

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, VEDA GROUP LIMITED – ASX VED, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, ANCHORAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, AUSBIL DEXIA LIMITED, WAVESTONE CAPITAL PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD