STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Contractors feel pain of tumbling iron ore prices

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Original article by Jenny Wiggins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Sep-14

Falling iron ore prices have had a negative impact on engineering and mining contractors providing services to iron ore mining companies. Analysts have downgraded their ratings, and the share prices of companies such as Mineral Resources, NRW Holdings and Macmahon Holdings are likely to be under pressure. The stock of Mineral Resources fell 1.8 per cent on 8 September 2014 after it was downgraded by RBC Capital Markets from "outperform" to "sector perform"

CORPORATES
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NWH, MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MAH, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WESTERN DESERT RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX WDR, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LEI, DOWNER EDI LIMITED – ASX DOW, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND, AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED – ASX ANG, BRADKEN LIMITED – ASX BKN, EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX EHL, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Hope for September

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 2-Sep-14

The Australian sharemarket rose by 0.02 per cent in the June 2014 quarter, which may bode well for the market’s outlook in September. Perpetual notes that while it was the first time since 2009 that the market has finished in the red in the June quarter, it has posted gains eight times in the last decade during the September quarter. Meanwhile, the month of September is traditionally seen as a bearish one for sharemarkets, although the Australian bourse rose in both September 2012 and 2013

CORPORATES
PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, CITIBANK PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Local shares tipped to fall as spring begins

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 1-Sep-14

Futures traders expect the Australian sharemarket to fall by 0.2 per cent when trading resumes on 1 September 2014. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index shed 0.1 per cent during August, and the downward trend is tipped to continue at the start of September. Factors such as the upcoming release of Australian and Chinese economic data are likely to weigh on investor sentiment, while a number of blue-chip stocks will commence trading without a dividend in the coming week

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGK, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, BANK OF ENGLAND, BANK OF JAPAN, BANK OF CANADA

Big things expected from small players

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Original article by Tim Boreham
The Australian – Page: 17 : 1-Sep-14

At the end of the August 2014 corporate profit reporting season, analysts say small- and medium-capitalisation stocks are set to outperform larger ones again in 2014-15. Earnings per share growth for the smaller groups was 17.7% as compared to 7% for blue chips, and is set to reach 21.7% in the current year. This is despite downgrades of between 1.5% and 3%. Among the strongest stocks have been Webjet, Slater & Gordon, G8 Education, Specialty Fashion and Nick Scali

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX SMALL ORDINARIES INDEX, WEBJET LIMITED – ASX WEB, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, G8 EDUCATION LIMITED – ASX GEM, SPECIALTY FASHION GROUP LIMITED – ASX SFH, NICK SCALI LIMITED – ASX NCK, CAPILANO HONEY LIMITED – ASX CZZ, SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED – ASX SHV, TASSAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX TGR, TRANSFIELD SERVICES LIMITED – ASX TSE, ACRUX LIMITED – ASX ACR, CHANDLER MACLEOD GROUP LIMITED – ASX CMG, NANOSONICS LIMITED – ASX NAN, BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED – ASX BRG, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY, BOART LONGYEAR LIMITED – ASX BLY, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, SUBZERO GROUP LIMITED – ASX SZG, PULSE HEALTH LIMITED – ASX PHG, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, CONTANGO ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, SHAW STOCKBROKING LIMITED, PITCHER PARTNERS CORPORATE ADVISORY PTY LTD, LINCOLN INDICATORS PTY LTD

How stocks have fared in a post-results world

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 27-Aug-14

Analysis by Bloomberg shows that Nine Entertainment Group, Slater & Gordon, Seven West Media, Crown Resorts and Rio Tinto are the most popular Australian-listed stocks among analysts as the August 2014 reporting season winds down. Meanwhile, M2 Group and OzForex have received the biggest upgrades in terms of analysts’ recommendations, while Tatts Group and Lynas Corporation are the stocks that have been downgraded the most

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, M2 GROUP LIMITED – ASX MTU, OZFOREX GROUP LIMITED – ASX OFX, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX LYC, BLOOMBERG LP, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CRZ, RUSSELL INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, ALS LIMITED – ASX ALQ, LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LEI, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL

Cyclical stocks could win favour as interest rates rise

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 22-Aug-14

There is general consensus among economists that the Reserve Bank of Australia will eventually begin to tighten monetary policy. Graham Harman of Russell Investments notes that cyclical stocks in particular tend to benefit from an increase in interest rates. However, David Sokulsky of UBS says historical analysis shows that stocks such as infrastructure, banks and utilities have been adversely affected by a rise in interest rates

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RUSSELL INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Forecasts dip as economy slackens

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 20-Aug-14

The Australian sharemarket has gained 3.5 per cent so far in 2014, although it has risen by 27 per cent in the last two years. Tony Brennan of Citigroup forecasts that the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index will end the year at 5,750 points. However, he warns that the market has lowered earnings expectations for 2014-15 by 0.5 per cent so far, and this could be scaled back further

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, BLOOMBERG LP, LEUTHOLD GROUP LLC, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOWNER EDI LIMITED – ASX DOW, LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LEI

No retail rally after sales lift

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Original article by Blair Speedy
The Australian – Page: 17 : 4-Aug-14

The latest retailing sector turnover data to be issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are forecast to show an increase in seasonally adjusted terms of 0.3% for June 2014. While this would be an improvement from a 0.5% fall in May, investors are still likely to take a negative view on such stocks as many groups report slower earnings growth. Some listed retailers have already issued profit warnings, due in large part to warm winter weather. The first major retailer to report will be JB Hi-Fi on 11 August

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX PBG, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, DAVID JONES LIMITED – ASX DJS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Shares rebound and the seven-year itch

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Jul-14

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index rose to a new high only six years after the 1987 sharemarket correction, and just three years after the correction in 1980. In contrast, the market is approaching the seventh anniversary of its record close in November 2007, and it has yet to return to or surpass this level. The underperforming junk bond market may prove to be the "turning point" that investors are seeking for shares

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES ACCUMULATION INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NUMERICABLE GROUP SA, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTORS

Mesoblast sows the seeds for stem cell success

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Original article by Rick Wallace
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 28-Jul-14

A new regulatory environment in Japan means it will be the initial market in which Australian-listed biotechnology group Mesoblast launches its revolutionary stem cells therapy product. CEO Silviu Itescu notes that this will be a world first, and should boost stock analysts’ forecasts for the company. A 2016 launch in the US is also being aimed for. In that nation Mesoblast has concluded phase III clinical trials of mesenchymal stem cells for treating childhood graft-versus-host-disease. The group has cash holdings of about $A220m, and can allocate funding to separate trials of its degenerative disc repair product

CORPORATES
MESOBLAST LIMITED – ASX MSB, UNITED STATES. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, JCR PHARMACEUTICALS COMPANY LIMITED, TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG