STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

UBS sees sharp drop in iron ore price

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Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Australian – Page: 16 : 6-Apr-21

UBS expects a looming increase in global iron ore supply to result in the price of the steel input falling below $US100 per tonne in the December 2021 quarter. The iron price peaked at more than $US170 per tonne earlier in the year, but UBS says it is reaching an ‘inflection point’. The firm notes that iron ore shipments from Brazil are increasing, while inventories at Chinese ports are increasing. UBS has reduced its share price targets for Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group; the firm has also downgraded its recommendation on the latter two from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Platinum fears bloody end to mania

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Original article by Richard Henderson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 & 33 : 1-Apr-21

Platinum Asset Management CEO Andrew Clifford warns that the ‘speculative mania’ in growth stocks is not sustainable and will eventually end. He believes that rising yields on long-dated bonds will be the catalyst for the demise of the boom at the speculative end of the sharemarket. Clifford expects investors to re-embrace cyclical stocks as the domestic economy opens up in the COVID-19 pandemic and hard-hit sectors such as travel and leisure recover.

CORPORATES
PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM

Blue chips steal AGM season spotlight

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 12-Oct-20

Futures pricing suggests that the Australian sharemarket will open flat on 12 October, despite a positive lead from Wall Street. The annual general meetings season is set to again be the key focus for investors in the coming week; the Commonwealth Bank, Telstra and CSL are among the blue-chip stocks that are slated to hold their AGMs. Macquarie has indicated that trading updates and commentary are likely to be of increased importance during the current AGM season, given that just 19 per cent of listed companies provided earnings guidance during the recent reporting season.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Investors brace for harder hit from second wave

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 9-Jul-20

The S&P/ASX 200 has shed 3.2 per in the last three trading sessions, while the Australian dollar has retreated ahead of Melbourne going into lockdown. Damien Boey of Credit Suisse says policymakers may have underestimated the economic cost of the lockdown, which may be closer to $26bn than the $6bn that has been forecast. He adds that the new lockdown may the "straw that broke the camel’s back" for many small businesses that were already struggling. Analysts also expect the new coronavirus outbreak in Victoria to weigh on corporate earnings and dividend payouts.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Greed, fear: ASX wraps worst year since 2012

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 & 24 : 1-Jul-20

The Australian sharemarket shed 10.9 per cent during 2019-20, in a turbulent financial year for investors. The local bourse reached a record high in February, before the coronavirus pandemic prompted a savage sell-off. However, a number of stocks performed well during 2019-20, with Afterpay, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Mesoblast all gaining more than 100 per cent. Fund managers warn that the August reporting season will be a key test for the sharemarket’s recent rebound.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AFTERPAY LIMITED – ASX APT, FISHER AND PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX FPH, MESOBLAST LIMITED – ASX MSB

What crisis? Bull market rages on as beaten-down banks lead value charge

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 5-Jun-20

The S&P/ASX 200 has gained more than 30 per cent since reaching a seven-year low of 4,402.5 points on 23 March. Morgan Stanley estimates that the benchmark index is currently trading on a record 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 19.55 times. While there has been strong support for some defensive growth stocks, value stocks continue to outperform; Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley says there will be further upside for value stocks if there is a V-shaped economic recovery.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Investors should brace for another sharemarket sell-off, warn analysts

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Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 12-May-20

The S&P/ASX200 has gained more than 20 per cent since 23 March, rebounding from a major sell-off in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Glenn Leese of TradingView cautions that the local bourse may retreat again; he notes that sharemarkets often rally after a big fall, only to incur an even larger slump. He adds that sharemarket crashes and corrections normally occur in a series of three waves, and the local market is currently experiencing its second wave.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, TRADINGVIEW

$150bn shares rout as oil crunch sparks panic

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 10-Mar-20

The Australian sharemarket has recorded its biggest one-day fall since the global financial crisis. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed 455.6 points or 7.3 per cent to close at 5,760.6 points on 9 March. The local market has now lost 19.6 per cent in less than three weeks. Asian markets were also heavily sold down. Mining and energy stocks have been amongst the hardest hit, with BHP falling 14 per cent and Oil Search down 35 per cent after a big fall in the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH

Analysts cut bank earnings forecasts

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Original article by Gerard Cockburn, Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 21 : 5-Mar-20

JP Morgan expects the net profits of Australia’s major banks to fall by 3-4 per cent over coming years after they moved to reduce their mortgage interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with the latest official interest rate cut. JP Morgan adds that the prospect of lower profit margins may prompt banks to reduce their dividend payouts. Macquarie has reiterated its ‘underweight’ recommendation on the banking sector, while UBS has downgraded its earnings-per-share forecast for bank stocks.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Investors see windfall from iron ore giants

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, William McInnes, Lucas Baird, Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 20 : 17-Feb-20

Futures pricing suggests that the Australian sharemarket will shed about 0.2 per cent when trading resumes on 17 February, after the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 approached a record high in the previous session. The earnings season will be a key focus for investors in the next week, with speculation that BHP and Fortescue Metals Group will increase their dividend payouts due to a strong iron ore price. The impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus on some companies will also be closely scrutinised.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG