ASX could hit 7000, but don’t get too excited

Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 26 : 7-Jan-20

Market strategists are generally upbeat about the outlook for Australian equities in 2020, with the majority forecasting that the S&P/ASX 200 will reach 7,000 points. However, Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley expects the benchmark to end the year at just 6,700 points, while Hasan Tevfik of MST Marquee has a year-end target of 7,100. Meanwhile, Damien Boey of Credit Suisse has forecast earnings-per-share growth of seven per cent.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MST MARQUEE, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

$45bn ASX hit as trade war flares

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 4-Dec-19

The Australian sharemarket recorded its third-biggest one-day fall in the year to date on 3 December; it was driven by factors such as the interest rate outlook and the latest tariff moves in the US. However, Kyle Rodda of IG Markets says the local bourse was overdue for a pullback after the recent strong gains. Wall Street and European stocks also fell sharply, although Asian markets recorded more modest declines, while the Australian dollar reached a three-week high. Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter still expects the local market to reach a new record high by the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, IG MARKETS LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Local bourse is ready to test record highs

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 26-Nov-19

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index has gained 19 per cent so in 2019, and it is just two per cent shy of the record high of 6,875.5 points in late July. A number of factors could see the local bourse reach a new peak, including a resolution to the US-China trade war and the potential for policy stimulus in December’s mid-year fiscal and economic outlook. However, the federal government is unlikely to pursue stimulus measures before the May 2020 Budget, as it continues to focus on a surplus.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Doubts remain as AGL embraces costly transition to energy future

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 1-Nov-19

Macquarie Wealth Management has reiterated its ‘underperform’ rating on AGL Energy, following the power company’s annual investor briefing. Analysts note that AGL will have to spend billions on clean energy sources to replace the coal and gas-fired power stations that it intends to close over the next few years. RBC Capital Markets has a ‘sector perform’ recommendation on AGL, with analyst James Nevin saying AGL appears to be positioning itself to respond to the changing and uncertain market.

CORPORATES
AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Strong gains raise question of fair stock value

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 18-Oct-19

The Australian sharemarket’s pullback on 17 October was to be expected, after the S&P/ASX 200 had gained 3.8 per cent in two weeks. The market may be vulnerable to a further pullback, given that it now looks to be the most expensive since October 2007 on a price-earnings basis. Meanwhile, financial markets have downgraded the chances of an official interest rate cut in both November and December following the release of the latest unemployment data.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Iron ore forecasts tumble, resources giants downgraded

Original article by Robert Guy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 2-Oct-19

Credit Suisse has scaled back its benchmark iron ore price forecasts for the next three years, due to expectations that Chinese steel production will peak in 2019. The firm now expects iron ore to fetch $US80 a tonne in 2020, which is six per cent lower than its previous guidance. Its price forecast for 2021 has been cut by 13 per cent to $US65/tonne, while the iron ore price is now expected to average $US60 a tonne in 2022. Credit Suisse has also reduced its share price targets for BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, while its rating on the latter has been downgraded from ‘neutral’ to ‘underperform’.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Iron ore outlook not so bleak: analysts

Original article by Al Root
The Australian – Page: Online : 15-Aug-19

Goldman Sachs analyst Paul Young has upgraded his rating for Fortescue Metals from ‘hold’ to ‘buy’, despite the recent slump in the price of iron ore. Young has also set a price target of $9.80 for Fortescue, around 35 per cent higher than recent levels. Although JP Morgan has noted recently that Vale is producing more ore and Chinese steel inventories are on the increase, Young notes that Goldman’s commodities team has recently upgraded 2019, 2020 and 20201 estimated iron ore prices.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED – ASX CRN

$47bn lost as currency war erupts

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 7-Aug-19

The Australian sharemarket has shed 5.4 per cent since reaching a record high in late July, as fears of a currency war add to tensions over the ongoing US-China trade war. However, Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter has downplayed concerns about the outlook for equities, saying a bear market is unlikely. He says there is not yet an all-out trade war, while interest rates are set to remain low. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital also does not expect a bear market, although he says shares are likely to fall further in the short-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, TAIEX INDEX, FTSE STRAITS TIMES INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF COMMERCE, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Share surge welcome but devil’s in the detail

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 1-Aug-19

The Australian sharemarket gained 21 per cent in the first seven months of 2019, its best start to a calendar year since 1991. However, Jason Steed of JP Morgan still expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at around 6,300 points at the end of 2019. He notes that although forward earning-per-share estimates have been revised upwards, this is primarily due to the mining sector. Meanwhile, Tony Brennan of Citigroup says the prospect of further official interest rate cuts could see the ASX 200 reach his firm’s mid-2020 target of 7,000 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

ASX hits record high, topping 2007 peak

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 31-Jul-19

The S&P/ASX 200 has more than doubled since reaching a low of 3,120.8 points during the global financial crisis. The Australian market’s year-to-date gain of 21 per cent is its strongest since 1991, potentially putting it on track for the best year since 2009. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital warns that the 2019 rally means there is the risk of a short term correction, and Hasan Tevfik of MST Marquee says the market’s high forward price-to-earnings ratio means investors need to be "quite selective" about the stocks they buy.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MST MARQUEE, PENGANA CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX PCG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD