STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Turmoil slashes $20bn from ASX

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 22-Aug-18

Political uncertainty is expected to continue to weigh on the Australian sharemarket, which recorded its largest single-day fall in five months on 21 August. The Australian dollar also fell sharply in the wake of the leadership spill, before recovering late in local trading. Analysts note that investors are concerned that the Coalition’s lack of unity could ensure that Labor wins the next election, which could in turn have negative implications for financial markets and the economy.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WAM CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX WAM, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, PENGANA CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX PCG, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, INFIGEN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX IFN, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW

Decade high for ASX as earnings flood in

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 16-Aug-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has risen to its highest level in more than a decade on the strength of the August reporting season. Investors shrugged off a negative lead from Asian markets and a downturn in base metal and crude oil prices on 15 August, although weaker commodity prices weighed on the resources sector. Meanwhile, Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson warns that while the Trump administration’s tax cuts have boosted the US economy, the trade war with China is likely to have an impact in the next 6-12 months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, DEXUS – ASX DXS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, AFTERPAY TOUCH GROUP LIMITED – ASX APT, PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX PGH, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, WAM CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX WAM, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Risks are real even in blur of reporting season

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 15-Aug-18

The earnings outlook for Australian companies has been encouraging so far in the August reporting season. There has been an 0.5 per cent increase in the consensus estimate for growth in earnings per share over the next year, based on financial results to date. Local investors have largely shrugged off global issues such as the downturn in the Turkish lira and continued trade tensions between the US and China. However, local shares – and other asset classes – remain vulnerable to external risks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, DEXUS – ASX DXS, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Iron ore heads for price crash: RBC

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 26-Jul-18

RBC Capital Markets has downgraded its average price forecast for iron ore in the September quarter from $US60 per tonne to $US50. The firm also expects the price of the steel input to average $US47.50 in the December quarter, compared with previous expectations of $US70. However, RBC expects the iron ore price to rebound to $US63/tonne in 2019. RBC has also downgraded its earnings forecasts and share price targets for BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group.

CORPORATES
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Dream run may be over as credit faces headwinds

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 11-Jul-18

The S&P/ASX 200 failed to reach a new 10-year high on 10 July, with the banking sector leading the market lower. Jonathan Mott of UBS notes that the Australian market had significantly outperformed its global peers between early April and early July, although this had followed a sharp fall in the March quarter. Meanwhile, a number of factors may weigh on the local bourse in the lead-up to the August reporting season, including the potential for the US-China trade war to escalate.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, SUNCORP BANK, AMP BANK LIMITED, PEPPER GROUP LIMITED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Strategists offer their wisdom on ASX outlook for 2018-19

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 2-Jul-18

The S&P/ASX 200 gained 8.6 per cent during 2017-18, ending the financial year at 6,194 points. The energy sector rose 37 per cent and the material sector added 24 per cent. Equities strategists are generally upbeat about the outlook for commodity prices and the resources sector in 2018-19, although some are bearish about bank stocks. Meanwhile, Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley expects the S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at 5,950 points at the end of 2018-19, while Tony Brennan of Citigroup has a target of 6,650 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED – ASX A2M, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ASX sails to 8pc return with BHP leading the pack

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 29 : 29-Jun-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has posted a gain of 8.6 per cent prior to dividends so far in 2017-18, after rising 9.3 per cent in 2016-17. BHP Billiton, CSL and Macquarie Group have been the biggest contributors to the local market’s gains in the current financial year. Citigroup has forecast that the ASX 200 will rise to 6,500 points in 2018-19, while the consensus of analysts is for earnings-per-share growth of eight per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, XERO LIMITED – ASX XRO, WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED – ASX WTC, AFTERPAY TOUCH GROUP LIMITED – ASX APT, ALTIUM LIMITED – ASX ALU, APPEN LIMITED – ASX APX, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, ATLAS FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Remarkable rebound as June changes its tune

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 29 : 22-Jun-18

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has gained nearly three per cent since the start of 2018 and nine per cent so far in 2017-18. However, the market typically posts strong gains in the second half of June, after the tax-loss selling and profit warning season has run its course and bank stocks rebound from initial falls after trading ex-dividend. Meanwhile, bank dividend payments traditionally boost the local market in July, although factors such as the potential for a US-China trade war remain a risk to Australian equities.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Banks to remain a drag on bourse, says brokers

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 8-Jun-18

Shares in Australian banks could come under further downward pressure in coming weeks as a result of tax-loss selling before the end of the financial year. David Cassidy of UBS warns that there is little prospect of a rebound in banks’ earnings in the near-term, and investors should retain "underweight" positions with regard to the sector. Richard Wiles of Morgan Stanley is also bearish about the sector, and recently downgraded share price targets for the sector by an average of seven per cent.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED – ASX RFG, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX API, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, ISENTIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX ISD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, QBE INSURANCE (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX

Wage woes a boon for investors, says Tevfik

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 23-May-18

The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen by an average of 4.3 per cent during May and June over the last decade, and the current trend suggests that it will be trading at around 5,724.8 points by the end of June. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse still expects it to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018. He says corporate profit margins – and in turn share prices – should benefit from expectations that wages growth will remain subdued. Lack of growth in wages will also affect the timing of any rise in official interest rates, which Credit Suisse does not expect until about mid-2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX