STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Top pickers reveal their favourite stocks

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 16-May-18

Fund managers attending the Future Generation Investment Forum in Sydney have identified their preferred Australian and international stocks. Regal Funds Management’s Philip King likes Qantas, saying it is the cheapest stock in the ASX 100. Mastermyne and Freedom Foods are the top picks for Ben Griffiths of Eley Griffiths Group, while McPherson’s is the preferred stock of Centennial Asset Management’s Matthew Kidman. Wilson Asset Management’s Catriona Burns and Magellan Financial Group’s Domenico Giuliano favour US-listed Sensata Technologies and Facebook respectively.

CORPORATES
REGAL FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 100 INDEX, MASTERMYNE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYE, FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FNP, ELEY GRIFFITHS GROUP PTY LTD, McPHERSON’S LIMITED – ASX MCP, CENTENNIAL ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, SENSATA TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, SANDON CAPITAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX SNC, SPICERS LIMITED – ASX SRS, COOPER INVESTORS PTY LTD, LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED – ASX LIC, TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED, JETSTAR AIRLINES PTY LTD, QANTAS FREQUENT FLYER LIMITED

Bearish key reversal flags more falls ahead

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 16-May-18

The Australian sharemarket closed at a four-day low on 15 May, after falling just short of its highest level in 10 years. The bourse has gained 1.9 per cent so far in May, but recent history suggests that a further pullback is possible as it has shed an average of 4.3 per cent during May and June over the last decade. A number of factors could weigh on the market in coming days; most of the major banks are set to begin trading ex-dividend, while shares in oil producers are falling despite a rally in the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rally propels ASX towards 10-year highs

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 14-May-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has gained about 6.2 per cent since the start of April, compared with a gain of about 3.3 per cent for the S&P 500. The local bourse is currently trading at around the 6,116-point level, and Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says it could reach 6,300 points by the end of 2018. Matthew Sherwood of Perpetual Investments is also upbeat about the outlook for local shares, noting that Australia is one of the few markets to have recorded an increase in earnings expectations.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, BLOOMBERG LP, DEUTSCHER AKTIEN INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Budget won’t curb expansion: Credit Suisse

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 10-May-18

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse says the Federal Government’s May 2018 Budget is unlikely to have a negative impact on corporate profits. He adds that the proposed tax cuts for people on low and middle incomes are relatively modest in comparison to Australia’s record level of household debt, and the tax cuts will result in only a small decline in the debt-to-disposable-income ratio in the next several years. Tevfik still expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED – ASX WGN, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LNK, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Buy the dip: bullish strategist sticks to his guns

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 26 : 20-Apr-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed five per cent in the March 2018 quarter, marking its worst performance in the first three months of a calendar year since 2008. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse remains upbeat about the outlook for the local bourse, arguing that the recent sell-off presents a buying opportunity for investors. He notes amongst other things that earnings-per-share growth is expected to be within the range of 5-10 per cent, while the S&P/ASX 200 is currently trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times consensus earnings per share for the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

How to pick a winner as tariff tensions rise

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 26 : 10-Apr-18

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse says a trade war between the US and China would negatively affect economic growth, bond markets and shares. He adds that investors should factor in the potential impact of an increase in tariffs, although a large-scale trade war is unlikely to occur. Tevfik says BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and QBE Insurance Group are among the Australian-listed companies that would be hard hit by increased protectionism by the US and China. He also warns of the potential for a further rise in bond yields.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX SGM, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, NUFARM LIMITED – ASX NUF, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, BOEING COMPANY, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Amid the swings hopes for rally build

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 6-Apr-18

The S&P 500 gained 10 per cent in February 2018, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rose five per cent in response. Equities markets may experience a similar rally in April, with Australian banks in particular having the potential to perform well given that the S&P/ASX 200 banks index is currently at its lowest level for 18 months. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 is trading on a price-earnings multiple of 14.8 times, compared with its long-term average of about 14.4 times, according to Chris Nicol and Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX BANKS 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, NYSE FANG+ INDEX

Local investors must factor in Fed rates hike

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 19-Mar-18

Futures pricing indicates that the Australian sharemarket is likely to rise when trading resumes on 19 March. The banking royal commission and Labor’s imputation credit reforms are likely to be a key focus for investors in the coming week, along with the latest jobs data and the minutes from the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting. The first meeting of the Federal Reserve under new chairman Jerome Powell will also attract scrutiny, amid expectations of a rise in US interest rates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, BNP PARIBAS SA

Bargain hunters happy to take the risks

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 9-Feb-18

Australian investors returned to the sharemarket on 8 February, seeking buying opportunities among stocks that had been heavily sold down in the recent sharemarket rout. Blue-chip stocks in particular attracted buying activity. However, investors should be mindful that financial market volatility can persist for some time, and the pace at which the US Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy will be a key factor in the outlook for equities.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE AG, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LPL FINANCIAL LLC

$30bn shares wipeout prompts fears bull run at an end

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 : 6-Feb-18

Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter says the global equities market sell-off will create excellent buying opportunities when it has run its course. Futures pricing suggests that Wall Street will shed a further 0.6 per cent when trading resumes, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5 per cent on 2 February. The Australian bourse is likely to follow its lead, after shedding 1.6 per cent on 5 February.

CORPORATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, CSI 300 INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, PENGANA CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX PCG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA