STOCK PRICE FORECASTING – UNITED STATES

Time for caution as US stocks due for pullback

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 11-Apr-19

The S&P 500 is trading close to its record high, having gained 23 per cent since late December 2018. A number of factors suggest that there could be a correction. The International Monetary Fund has again downgraded its forecast for global economic growth; the S&P 500 fell sharply after the IMF’s previous downgrade in October. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is now widely tipped to announce quantitative easing rather than quantitative tightening, while there is growing speculation that the Fed’s next interest rate move will be down rather than up.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

US stocks brace for grim reporting season

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 8-Apr-19

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley expects the quarterly US reporting season to signal the start of an earnings recession. He says the March 2019 quarter is likely to be the first since the June 2015 quarter that the S&P 500 will record year-on-year negative earnings growth. The S&P 500 has gained 15.4 per cent so far in 2019, closing at 2,892.74 points on 5 April. Morgan Stanley expects it to end 2018 at 2,750 points, while Capital Economics forecasts that it will reach a 2019 low of just 2,300 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, WELLS FARGO AND COMPANY, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED

Wall Street ends year with worst losses since GFC

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Original article by Georgi Kantchev, Akane Otani
The Australian – Page: 17 : 2-Jan-19

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 5.6 per cent in 2018, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq retreated 6.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively. However, all three indices posted gains on the final day of the year, with the Dow rising by 1.1 per cent. Despite the late rally, Wall Street recorded its biggest annual loss since the global financial crisis. Geoffrey Yu of UBS Wealth Management expects further market volatility in 2019. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 and the Stoxx Europe 600 both fell by 13 per cent during 2018, and the Shanghai Composite shed 25 per cent.

CORPORATES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, UBS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, FTSE 100 INDEX, STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF LABOR, BOEING COMPANY, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX

Reasons to be grateful amid rout: Citi strategist

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 22-Nov-18

The Australian sharemarket shed 6.1 per cent in October, while bearish sentiment in the US saw the S&P 500 fall seven per cent. However, Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup is upbeat about the outlook for US equities in the year ahead, noting that the "sentiment metric" indicates a high probability that the S&P 500 will be higher in 12 months’ time. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs also expects the S&P 500 to rise over the next year.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20)

Why there is a silver lining in bear markets

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 26 : 24-Oct-18

Global sharemarkets fell on 23 October, and Wall Street is one of the few markets that are still in positive territory for the year. Tobias Levkovich, the chief US equity strategist at Citigroup, notes that investors have become more focused on risk following the recent sell-off on Wall Street. He says the outlook for the US market remains encouraging until at least the middle of 2019, arguing that a major fall on Wall Street would require US corporate profits to fall sharply. He adds that US companies’ profit margins remain lower than in 2009.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

US fundamentals strong despite correction

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 22-Oct-18

The S&P 500 recently shed nearly eight per cent, although it has recovered much of the lost ground and remains five per cent higher than at the start of 2018. Kevin Anderson of State Street has downplayed concerns about the recent pullback by US equities, arguing that Wall Street was largely catching up with the bond market and overseas markets. Anderson expects the US sharemarket to rise in 2019 and he is upbeat about the outlook for the US economy, while he forecasts that the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates to about three per cent in 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

US tax cuts may trigger as good as it gets sell-off

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 5-Dec-17

Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup still expects the S&P 500 to be trading at 2,675 points in December 2018, despite the passage of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts package. Citi’s forecast for the S&P 500 will be increased by just 3.7 per cent if the US corporate tax rate is reduced to 20 per cent. The firm believes that investors may choose to take profits if the tax rate is cut to 20 per cent, upon expectations that the market will not rise any further.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

Investor U-turn amid signs the wheels are falling off Trump rally

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 23-Aug-17

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 18 per cent since the US presidential election in November 2016. However, US investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio says the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration may provide the catalyst for a sharemarket correction. The future of President Donald Trump’s much-touted corporate and personal income tax cuts in particular is uncertain, and a sell-off is likely if the reforms are not passed by Congress.

CORPORATES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES), REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES)

Wall St record highs stumble on flare-up of North Korea tension

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 10-Aug-17

US share price indices have retreated and the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index has risen by more than 10 per cent in response to the latest war of words between President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un. However, some analysts had previously warned that the low level of the VIX suggested that financial market risk may be set to increase, and DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach recently said that market indicators point to a rise in bond yields.

CORPORATES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, DOUBLELINE CAPITAL LP, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED NATIONS. SECURITY COUNCIL

Betting on US stimulus could come back to bite

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 14-Feb-17

Sharemarkets have rallied in response to indications from US President Donald Trump of a major announcement on tax policy in coming weeks. Diana Mousina of AMP Capital warns that any move by the Trump administration to back away from its proposed tax cuts for companies and individuals would hit shares and US economic growth. However, an overly aggressive fiscal stimulus package would risk a spike in the inflation rate, which would most likely prompt a rise in interest rates. This in turn could derail the sharemarket rally.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, PACIFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC