STOCK PRICE FORECASTING

Global bull market still charging ahead

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 7-Jul-17

Sentiment among Wall Street’s sell-side equity analysts rose by 2.4 per cent to a five-year high of 56.4 in June 2017, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Australian fund managers are also upbeat about the outlook for shares. AMP’s Shane Oliver notes that the long-running global bull market is unlikely to be affected when major central banks begin to increase interest rates. Citigroup also believes that the bull run will continue, with just two of its 18 risk indicators pointing to a bear market in the near-term.

CORPORATES
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, AMP LIFE LIMITED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Numbers look good, so where’s the euphoria?

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 31-May-17

Australian bank and resources stocks rallied on 30 May 2017, allowing the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to finish in the black after reaching a three-month low early in the session. Meanwhile, Citigroup notes that investor sentiment is not sufficiently high that a market retreat is likely, despite key US indices being at or near record highs. However, the S&P/ASX 200 and the S&P 500 have tended to underperform in the month of June, shedding an average of 2.2 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively over the last 10 years.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS INCORPORATED, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Global fundies not counting on a crash

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 22 : 15-Sep-16

Investors have been warned to expect further volatility in equity markets until the US Federal Reserve resumes increasing interest rates. Many global fund managers anticipate that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy soon, although they generally expect rates to rise gradually. The recent equities sell-down has boosted government bond yields, and there is growing concern that the bond market’s long bull run may be nearing its end.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, K2 ASSET MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KAM, PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM

It’s a big short-term buying opportunity

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 24-Jun-16

Charles de Bolssezon of Societe Generale forecasts that the FTSE 100 will rally in coming months if the UK votes to remain in the European Union. However, the FTSE is tipped to shed about 15 per cent if Britons vote to leave the EU, while the S&P 500 will fall by 10 per cent. Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter says Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 would also fall sharply in the event of a "Brexit", but he adds that this would create buying opportunities for investors in the short-term.

CORPORATES
SOCIETE GENERALE SA, FTSE 100 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX, FTSE 250 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, BANK OF ENGLAND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Markets have gone a bit too quiet for some

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 1-Apr-16

Global financial market volatility has declined, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s "fear index". However, Escala Partners’ Giselle Roux cautions investors to expect further volatility. She anticipates mixed fortunes in the upcoming US profit reporting season, while other factors that may weigh on market sentiment include the US presidential election and a UK referendum on staying in the European Union. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed four per cent during the March 2016 quarter, or one per cent in US dollar terms.

CORPORATES
CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, ESCALA PARTNERS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20), UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED

RBS tells investors to ‘sell everything’

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Original article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 13-Jan-16

Royal Bank of Scotland is extremely bearish about the outlook for global financial markets in 2016, advising investors to offload all holdings except for "quality bonds". The bank has forecast that sharemarkets in the US and Europe could fall by 10-20 per cent, while global bond yields will also decline sharply and the US Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, RBS says the price of Brent crude oil could potentially test $US16 per barrel. Originally published in "The Telegraph".

CORPORATES
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP PLC, FTSE 100 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF ENGLAND, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UBS AG

History proves markets resilient to global terror

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 17-Nov-15

The Australian sharemarket lost ground early in trading on 16 November 2015, in the aftermath of the Islamic terrorist attacks in Paris. However, investors returned to the market to take advantage of lower share prices, allowing the S&P/ASX 200 to close slightly above the 5,000-point level. Analysis of trading patterns following significant terrorist attacks since 2001 shows that equity markets have generally rebounded strongly after falling in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL

Investors’ love of local shares proves a costly passion

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Original article by Bianca Hartge-Hazelman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 17-Dec-14

The S&P 500 Index has risen by 7.5 per cent so far in 2014, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has shed 3.6 per cent in local currency terms. The local benchmark index has fallen by 20 per cent in US currency terms since September. Research shows that international shares are widely tipped to continue to outperform in 2015, while PM Capital’s Paul Moore argues that Australian investors should increase their exposure to offshore assets

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LIVEWIREMARKETS.COM, MERCER INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN ETHICAL INVESTMENT LIMITED – ASX AEF, TOKYO STOCK PRICE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL EUROPE INDEX

BlackRock sees a wild ride for shares in 2015

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 12-Dec-14

BlackRock expects cyclical stocks in the US to perform better than defensive stocks in 2015, while the US economy and currency are also tipped to improve. Meanwhile, the firm anticipates increased volatility in global financial markets in the new year. It also says the downturn in the crude oil price should have a positive impact on global economic growth in the longer-term

CORPORATES
BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, BLACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, BLACKROCK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BANK OF JAPAN, NIKKEI 225 INDEX