$45bn ASX hit as trade war flares

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 4-Dec-19

The Australian sharemarket recorded its third-biggest one-day fall in the year to date on 3 December; it was driven by factors such as the interest rate outlook and the latest tariff moves in the US. However, Kyle Rodda of IG Markets says the local bourse was overdue for a pullback after the recent strong gains. Wall Street and European stocks also fell sharply, although Asian markets recorded more modest declines, while the Australian dollar reached a three-week high. Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter still expects the local market to reach a new record high by the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, IG MARKETS LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Local bourse is ready to test record highs

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 26-Nov-19

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index has gained 19 per cent so in 2019, and it is just two per cent shy of the record high of 6,875.5 points in late July. A number of factors could see the local bourse reach a new peak, including a resolution to the US-China trade war and the potential for policy stimulus in December’s mid-year fiscal and economic outlook. However, the federal government is unlikely to pursue stimulus measures before the May 2020 Budget, as it continues to focus on a surplus.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Strong gains raise question of fair stock value

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 18-Oct-19

The Australian sharemarket’s pullback on 17 October was to be expected, after the S&P/ASX 200 had gained 3.8 per cent in two weeks. The market may be vulnerable to a further pullback, given that it now looks to be the most expensive since October 2007 on a price-earnings basis. Meanwhile, financial markets have downgraded the chances of an official interest rate cut in both November and December following the release of the latest unemployment data.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Costello’s warning to retirees

Original article by Greg Brown, Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Aug-19

Future Fund chairman Peter Costello has urged the US and China to "sensibly negotiate" a resolution to their ongoing trade dispute in the wake of a global financial rout. The Australian sharemarket has shed $86bn in the last two trading sessions, following China’s move to devalue its currency; Costello has warned that Australians’ savings and the federal Budget will be impacted if the trade dispute is not resolved. However, he says it is important to not "overhype" the recent market slump.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

$47bn lost as currency war erupts

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 7-Aug-19

The Australian sharemarket has shed 5.4 per cent since reaching a record high in late July, as fears of a currency war add to tensions over the ongoing US-China trade war. However, Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter has downplayed concerns about the outlook for equities, saying a bear market is unlikely. He says there is not yet an all-out trade war, while interest rates are set to remain low. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital also does not expect a bear market, although he says shares are likely to fall further in the short-term.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, TAIEX INDEX, FTSE STRAITS TIMES INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF COMMERCE, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Share surge welcome but devil’s in the detail

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 1-Aug-19

The Australian sharemarket gained 21 per cent in the first seven months of 2019, its best start to a calendar year since 1991. However, Jason Steed of JP Morgan still expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at around 6,300 points at the end of 2019. He notes that although forward earning-per-share estimates have been revised upwards, this is primarily due to the mining sector. Meanwhile, Tony Brennan of Citigroup says the prospect of further official interest rate cuts could see the ASX 200 reach his firm’s mid-2020 target of 7,000 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

ASX hits record high, topping 2007 peak

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 25 : 31-Jul-19

The S&P/ASX 200 has more than doubled since reaching a low of 3,120.8 points during the global financial crisis. The Australian market’s year-to-date gain of 21 per cent is its strongest since 1991, potentially putting it on track for the best year since 2009. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital warns that the 2019 rally means there is the risk of a short term correction, and Hasan Tevfik of MST Marquee says the market’s high forward price-to-earnings ratio means investors need to be "quite selective" about the stocks they buy.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, MST MARQUEE, PENGANA CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX PCG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

It’s a long way to the top for a market in reach of record high

Original article by Andrew White, Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 30-Jul-19

The S&P/ASX 200 closed less than three points shy of its all-time record on 29 July, but the upcoming corporate earnings season may see the benchmark index reach a new high. The S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 surpassed their 2007 peaks in 2013, while the Nikkei did so in 2015. Alphinity Investment Management’s Bruce Smith has downplayed the significance of the ASX 200’s rise, noting that the S&P ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index also rose above its 2007 levels in 2013 and has since consistently reached new highs.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES ACCUMULATION INDEX, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cuts push investors into risky territory

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 10-Jul-19

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 recorded its third-biggest loss for 2019 on 8 July, after gaining two per cent in the previous week and about 25 per cent in the last six months. The rally in global sharemarkets during 2019 has been driven by central banks’ shift towards a monetary policy easing bias. The downturn in official interest rates is prompting more investors to embrace higher-risk asset classes, which in turn can increase market risk.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Morgan Stanley puts cat among the pigeons

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 9-Jul-19

The S&P/ASX 200 recorded its third-biggest daily loss for 2019 on 8 July, after gaining two per cent in the previous week. Morgan Stanley’s move to downgrade its equity market recommendation from ‘equalweight’ to ‘underweight’ contributed to the pullback, and Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley says the investment bank’s global equity weight is now at its lowest since coverage began in 2014. Meanwhile, with the US earnings season set to begin shortly, Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup says consensus estimates for earnings in the June quarter could be too low.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK