Tough earnings season ahead as pressure builds

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 31-Jan-19

Tony Brennan of Citigroup says earnings guidance in the February 2019 reporting season is likely to be influenced by factors such as the slowdown in Australia’s housing market and falling business sentiment. Brennan says companies in a range of sectors have downgraded their earnings forecasts in recent months, and this may be reflected in the upcoming profit reporting season. The S&P/ASX 200 has gained 4.3 per cent so far in 2019, and Citigroup still expects it to test the 6,300-point level by the end of the year.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Storm clouds gathering after a promising start

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 30-Jan-19

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has gained more than four per cent so far in 2019, putting it on track to achieve its best performance in the month of January in five years. However, the local market could face a number of headwinds in the near-term, including the outlook for US interest rates and trade negotiations between the US and China. There is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary policy tightening in 2019, and the exact timing of the next move in the cash rate remains uncertain.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, PEPPERSTONE GROUP LIMITED, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES COMPANY LIMITED

Sharemarkets burst out of blocks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 29-Jan-19

The S&P/ASX 200 has gained 4.6 per cent so far in January 2019, and it has risen eight per cent since reaching a two-year low in December. Jason Steed of JP Morgan says the benchmark index could test the 6,300-point level by the end of 2019, which implies a 12 per cent gain for the year. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank expects the S&P/ASX 200 to finish the year at 6,150 points. Overseas sharemarkets have also started the year strongly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average having risen for five consecutive weeks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX RWC, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE

Hurdles ahead, but ASX could reach 6000

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 9-Jan-19

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 reached an intra-day high of 5,733.7 points on 8 January, having fallen to 5,410.2 points on 24 December. Morgan Stanley says the financial services royal commission, the upcoming federal election, the impact of falling house prices on consumer confidence and the outlook for the Chinese economy are key risks for the local bourse in the near-term. However, Chris Nicol and Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley expect the market to rise above 6,000 points in 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, APPLE INCORPORATED

ASX headed for bounce in 2019

Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 2-Jan-19

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed 6.9 per cent in 2018, ending the year at 5,646.4 points. However, economists are generally upbeat about the outlook for the Australian sharemarket in 2019. Stephen Koukoulas of Market Economics says the market could gain around 20 per cent, while Stephen Roberts of Laminar Capital forecasts a rise of 8-12 per cent. Meanwhile, Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to shed around 15 per cent in 2019, which in turn is likely to weigh on the Australian market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MARKET ECONOMICS PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RUSSELL INVESTMENTS PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Fed rate hike roils global markets

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 21 : 21-Dec-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 9.2 per cent so far in 2018, and 11 per cent during the current quarter. The local market’s 1.3 per cent fall on 20 December was accompanied by large falls across Asia, while the Australian dollar reached a low of $US.7086 and the yield on 10-year Australian bonds fell to 2.3 per cent. Financial markets believe that the US Federal Reserve made a policy mistake in signalling further monetary policy tightening over the next few years and it may have to reduce interest rates within two years.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PEPPERSTONE FINANCIAL PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, BLOOMBERG LP, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, WAM CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX WAM, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, ECP ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, HYPERION ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Major funds bracing for bear market

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 19-Dec-18

Sharemarkets in Australia and Asia fell sharply on 18 December, in response to bearish sentiment on Wall Street. The S&P/ASX 200 has shed more than 7.4 per cent so far in 2018, and it is on track to record its biggest fall for the December quarter since 2008. Magellan Financial Group and WAM Capital have maintain a high level of cash holdings, although Randal Jenneke of T. Rowe Price sees the market volatility as a selective buying opportunity.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, WAM CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX WAM, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX RWC, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

How to invest in the political maelstrom

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 22 : 18-Dec-18

Jason Steed of JP Morgan says a certain amount of sovereign risk has been priced into Australian sharemarket valuations ahead of the 2019 federal election. He notes that while there is some concern among investors about the prospecting of a Labor government, the Coalition has not very pro-business either. He adds that although the financial services sector in particular faces some headwinds in 2019, investors have already largely priced in the political and regulatory risks.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, ALUMINA LIMITED – ASX AWC, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL

Investors facing a year of risks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 17-Dec-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 7.6 per cent so far in 2018, having peaked at a 10-year high of 6,373.5 points in August. However, market strategists are upbeat about the outlook for local shares in 2019, with a median forecast for the S&P/ASX 200 to gain 11 per cent in the next year. Domestic and global factors may weigh on market sentiment in 2019, including the economic outlook, falling Australian house prices, the prospect of interest rate rises in the US and Europe, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Britain’s exit from the European Union.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MST MARQUEE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Early signs of tinsel raise ho-ho-hopes of a rally

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 13-Dec-18

Australia’s benchmark index posted its second-largest one-day gain for 2018 on 12 December, while some key Asian markets also rallied amid signs of a thawing of relations between the US and China. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200’s forward price-earnings ratio fell below its long-term average of about 14 times on 10 December and the index’s estimated dividend yield reached a two-year high of 5.2 per cent. It should also be noted that over the last two decades, the S&P/ASX 200 has gained an average of two per cent during the last two weeks of a calendar year.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES COMPANY LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD