Remarkable rebound as June changes its tune

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 29 : 22-Jun-18

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 has gained nearly three per cent since the start of 2018 and nine per cent so far in 2017-18. However, the market typically posts strong gains in the second half of June, after the tax-loss selling and profit warning season has run its course and bank stocks rebound from initial falls after trading ex-dividend. Meanwhile, bank dividend payments traditionally boost the local market in July, although factors such as the potential for a US-China trade war remain a risk to Australian equities.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Investors run for cover amid trade tension

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 20-Jun-18

The Australian dollar has fallen to a 13-month low amid renewed concerns about a US-China trade war. The local bourse eased slightly on 19 June but Asian markets fell sharply, with China’s Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index shedding 3.8 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively. A move by US President Donald Trump to look at imposing tariffs on more Chinese products prompted China to warn that it would respond in kind, and Louis Kuijis of Oxford Economics says such a move would affect economic growth in China, the US and globally.

CORPORATES
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, SHENZHEN COMPOSITE INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED, OANDA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, NASDAQ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Wage woes a boon for investors, says Tevfik

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 23-May-18

The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen by an average of 4.3 per cent during May and June over the last decade, and the current trend suggests that it will be trading at around 5,724.8 points by the end of June. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse still expects it to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018. He says corporate profit margins – and in turn share prices – should benefit from expectations that wages growth will remain subdued. Lack of growth in wages will also affect the timing of any rise in official interest rates, which Credit Suisse does not expect until about mid-2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX

Bearish key reversal flags more falls ahead

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 16-May-18

The Australian sharemarket closed at a four-day low on 15 May, after falling just short of its highest level in 10 years. The bourse has gained 1.9 per cent so far in May, but recent history suggests that a further pullback is possible as it has shed an average of 4.3 per cent during May and June over the last decade. A number of factors could weigh on the market in coming days; most of the major banks are set to begin trading ex-dividend, while shares in oil producers are falling despite a rally in the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rally propels ASX towards 10-year highs

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 14-May-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has gained about 6.2 per cent since the start of April, compared with a gain of about 3.3 per cent for the S&P 500. The local bourse is currently trading at around the 6,116-point level, and Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says it could reach 6,300 points by the end of 2018. Matthew Sherwood of Perpetual Investments is also upbeat about the outlook for local shares, noting that Australia is one of the few markets to have recorded an increase in earnings expectations.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, PERPETUAL INVESTMENTS, BLOOMBERG LP, DEUTSCHER AKTIEN INDEX, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Budget won’t curb expansion: Credit Suisse

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 10-May-18

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse says the Federal Government’s May 2018 Budget is unlikely to have a negative impact on corporate profits. He adds that the proposed tax cuts for people on low and middle incomes are relatively modest in comparison to Australia’s record level of household debt, and the tax cuts will result in only a small decline in the debt-to-disposable-income ratio in the next several years. Tevfik still expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED – ASX WGN, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LNK, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Buy the dip: bullish strategist sticks to his guns

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 26 : 20-Apr-18

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed five per cent in the March 2018 quarter, marking its worst performance in the first three months of a calendar year since 2008. However, Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse remains upbeat about the outlook for the local bourse, arguing that the recent sell-off presents a buying opportunity for investors. He notes amongst other things that earnings-per-share growth is expected to be within the range of 5-10 per cent, while the S&P/ASX 200 is currently trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times consensus earnings per share for the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Amid the swings hopes for rally build

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 6-Apr-18

The S&P 500 gained 10 per cent in February 2018, while Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 rose five per cent in response. Equities markets may experience a similar rally in April, with Australian banks in particular having the potential to perform well given that the S&P/ASX 200 banks index is currently at its lowest level for 18 months. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 is trading on a price-earnings multiple of 14.8 times, compared with its long-term average of about 14.4 times, according to Chris Nicol and Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX BANKS 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, NYSE FANG+ INDEX

Local investors must factor in Fed rates hike

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 19-Mar-18

Futures pricing indicates that the Australian sharemarket is likely to rise when trading resumes on 19 March. The banking royal commission and Labor’s imputation credit reforms are likely to be a key focus for investors in the coming week, along with the latest jobs data and the minutes from the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting. The first meeting of the Federal Reserve under new chairman Jerome Powell will also attract scrutiny, amid expectations of a rise in US interest rates.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, BNP PARIBAS SA

$30bn shares wipeout prompts fears bull run at an end

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 1 : 6-Feb-18

Richard Coppleson of Bell Potter says the global equities market sell-off will create excellent buying opportunities when it has run its course. Futures pricing suggests that Wall Street will shed a further 0.6 per cent when trading resumes, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5 per cent on 2 February. The Australian bourse is likely to follow its lead, after shedding 1.6 per cent on 5 February.

CORPORATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, CSI 300 INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, PENGANA CAPITAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX PCG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA