STOCK PRICE INDEXES – UNITED STATES

Time for caution as US stocks due for pullback

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 11-Apr-19

The S&P 500 is trading close to its record high, having gained 23 per cent since late December 2018. A number of factors suggest that there could be a correction. The International Monetary Fund has again downgraded its forecast for global economic growth; the S&P 500 fell sharply after the IMF’s previous downgrade in October. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is now widely tipped to announce quantitative easing rather than quantitative tightening, while there is growing speculation that the Fed’s next interest rate move will be down rather than up.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BLOOMBERG LP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Margin pressures put squeeze on US outlook

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Apr-19

The S&P 500 has gained 23 per cent since late December 2018, and it is close to a record high. However, some observers expect the S&P 500 to record year-on-year negative earnings growth in the March 2019 quarter, for the first time in about three years. Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley and Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup are upbeat about the earnings outlook for the March quarter, but they are cautious about the outlook for the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

US stocks brace for grim reporting season

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 8-Apr-19

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley expects the quarterly US reporting season to signal the start of an earnings recession. He says the March 2019 quarter is likely to be the first since the June 2015 quarter that the S&P 500 will record year-on-year negative earnings growth. The S&P 500 has gained 15.4 per cent so far in 2019, closing at 2,892.74 points on 5 April. Morgan Stanley expects it to end 2018 at 2,750 points, while Capital Economics forecasts that it will reach a 2019 low of just 2,300 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, WELLS FARGO AND COMPANY, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED

Wall Street ends year with worst losses since GFC

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Original article by Georgi Kantchev, Akane Otani
The Australian – Page: 17 : 2-Jan-19

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 5.6 per cent in 2018, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq retreated 6.2 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively. However, all three indices posted gains on the final day of the year, with the Dow rising by 1.1 per cent. Despite the late rally, Wall Street recorded its biggest annual loss since the global financial crisis. Geoffrey Yu of UBS Wealth Management expects further market volatility in 2019. Meanwhile, the UK’s FTSE 100 and the Stoxx Europe 600 both fell by 13 per cent during 2018, and the Shanghai Composite shed 25 per cent.

CORPORATES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, UBS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, FTSE 100 INDEX, STOXX EUROPE 600 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF LABOR, BOEING COMPANY, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX

Reasons to be grateful amid rout: Citi strategist

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 22-Nov-18

The Australian sharemarket shed 6.1 per cent in October, while bearish sentiment in the US saw the S&P 500 fall seven per cent. However, Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup is upbeat about the outlook for US equities in the year ahead, noting that the "sentiment metric" indicates a high probability that the S&P 500 will be higher in 12 months’ time. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs also expects the S&P 500 to rise over the next year.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, GROUP OF TWENTY (G-20)

Why there is a silver lining in bear markets

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 26 : 24-Oct-18

Global sharemarkets fell on 23 October, and Wall Street is one of the few markets that are still in positive territory for the year. Tobias Levkovich, the chief US equity strategist at Citigroup, notes that investors have become more focused on risk following the recent sell-off on Wall Street. He says the outlook for the US market remains encouraging until at least the middle of 2019, arguing that a major fall on Wall Street would require US corporate profits to fall sharply. He adds that US companies’ profit margins remain lower than in 2009.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Trump blames crazy Fed for rout

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Sarah Turner, Michael Smith, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 29 : 12-Oct-18

The Nasdaq shed more than four per cent on 11 October, as global sentiment toward equities turned bearish. President Donald Trump has linked the global sell-off to the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to increase official interest rates, telling reporters that the central bank is "making a mistake" and it has "gone crazy". Simon Doyle of Schroders says US markets are likely to experience a further big fall, citing factor such as high valuations, rising interest rates and the US-China trade war.

CORPORATES
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, ADOBE CORPORATION, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED – ASX WTC, APPEN LIMITED – ASX APX, FEDERATION ASSET MANAGEMENT, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Strong US earnings growth tipped but it’s unlikely to last

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 16-Jul-18

Expectations of earnings growth has been a major contributor to the rise of the S&P 500, which has gained 8.5 per cent since its February low. Market strategist Ed Yardeni notes that US corporate tax cuts in late 2017 have been the major driver of earnings growth. Analysts forecast earnings growth of 22.3 per cent in 2018 and 9.9 per cent in 2019. However, some analysts warn that earnings growth could come under pressure in the second half of 2018, due to factors such as the trade war with China and the rising US dollar.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, YARDENI RESEARCH INCORPORATED, FUNDSTRAT GLOBAL ADVISORS LLC, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, LPL FINANCIAL LLC, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, JP MORGAN CHASE AND COMPANY, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, WELLS FARGO AND COMPANY, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, APPLE INCORPORATED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, ALPHABET INCORPORATED, MICROSOFT CORPORATION, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, EXPEDIA INCORPORATED, BANK OF MONTREAL

Trump trade war fears sparks stock plunge

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 2-Mar-18

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply after US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 per cent tariff on imported steel and a 10 per cent tariff on foreign aluminium. His announcement came less than one hour after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell had told US legislators that he did not think tariffs were the best way of addressing the possible negative side-effects of international trade. Trump’s announcement is not expected to be well-received by China.

CORPORATES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, FARR, MILLER AND WASHINGTON LLC, US STEEL MINING COMPANY INCORPORATED, CENTURY ALUMINIUM COMPANY, CATERPILLAR INCORPORATED, BOEING COMPANY, ALLIANZ GLOBAL INVESTORS US, OXFORD ECONOMICS LIMITED

US tax cuts may trigger as good as it gets sell-off

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 5-Dec-17

Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup still expects the S&P 500 to be trading at 2,675 points in December 2018, despite the passage of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts package. Citi’s forecast for the S&P 500 will be increased by just 3.7 per cent if the US corporate tax rate is reduced to 20 per cent. The firm believes that investors may choose to take profits if the tax rate is cut to 20 per cent, upon expectations that the market will not rise any further.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED