Risks build as central banks push on a string

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Jun-19

There is a growing view that further monetary policy easing will do little to stimulate economic growth. Expectations of further interest rate cuts have seen Australia’s All Ordinaries Index gain 18 per cent so far in 2019. Matthew Brooks of Macquarie Group notes that the Australian sharemarket rose by an average of 12 per cent after the first interest rate cut in eight of the 11 easing cycles since 1971, while the S&P 500 was up at least 10 per cent a year. The other three easing cycles coincided with recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

After all the carnage, it may soon be time to buy

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Jan-19

The S&P/ASX 200’s recent rally has seen its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio return to its long-term average following a sharp sell-down in the December quarter. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is trading at around eight per cent below its long-term average. The near-term outlook for equities may depend on a range of factors, including trade negotiations between the US and China.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX

Markets take cautious view of historic talks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 13-Jun-18

The summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has had relatively little impact on global financial markets. Royal Bank of Canada’s Sue Trinh says the upcoming release of key economic data in the US and Australia will be a greater focus for financial markets in the near-term, noting that the two leaders differ on just what "complete denuclearisation" on the Korean peninsula will entail. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is tipped to tighten monetary policy at its monthly meeting.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, KOSPI INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Cohn exit triggers shockwaves

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Mar-18

Sharemarkets in the Asia-Pacific region fell on 7 March in response to the resignation of President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, and futures pricing suggests further bearishness on Wall Street. Cohn was an advocate of free trade, and analysts say his resignation will heighten concerns about the potential for a trade war. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe says there could be major ramifications for the global economy if Trump were to broaden his tariff policy beyond steel and aluminium.

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UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IG MARKETS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF COMMERCE, SAXO BANK A/S, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, VISY INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED

Share indexes tipped to test recent lows

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 15-Feb-18

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Bull & Bear Indicator suggests that global equities face a further pullback and could fall to around the level seen during the recent sharemarket rout. Meanwhile, BAML’s latest survey of fund managers shows that respondents’ average cash balance has risen by 0.3 per cent to 4.7 per cent, while equity allocation has fallen by 12 per cent and bond allocation has fallen to the lowest level in two decades.

CORPORATES
BANK OF AMERICA NA, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Shaky markets signal more share pain on way

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Feb-18

Futures pricing suggests that the US sharemarket will experience further volatility, despite a rebound on 7 February. The bearish investor sentiment of recent days has prompted renewed support for "safe-haven" assets, including US government bonds and currencies such as the yen. Meanwhile, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index briefly rose above 50 per cent on 7 February, compared with just 11.5 per cent a week earlier. However, Jeremy Lawson of Aberdeen Standard Investments does not expect global sharemarket volatility to be sustained.

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CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, CREDIT SUISSE AG, BELL ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BLM, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX

Bulls to run all year but risks build for 2019

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 3-Nov-17

The S&P 500 has gained 15.2 per cent so far in 2017, while the S&P/ASX 200 has risen by just 4.7 per cent. They have gained 17 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively when dividends are included. John Normand of JP Morgan expects equities to continue to rally in 2018, although he says the S&P 500 is likely to record growth in the low double-digits when dividends are taken into account. Meanwhile, he is bearish about the outlook for government bonds, and warns that there are a number of risk factors for global financial markets in 2019.

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STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES

Tech sell-off isn’t end of the world

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 14-Jun-17

The Nasdaq Composite Index has gained nearly 15 per cent so far in 2017, despite shedding 2.5 per cent in the last two trading sessions. While shares in the so-called FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet) have been heavily sold down in recent days, they have all posted strong gains so far in the calendar year. Meanwhile, although US technology stocks are widely considered to be overvalued, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 is trading at around 20.3, compared with a peak of around 45 prior to the "tech wreck" in 2000.

CORPORATES
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, APPLE INCORPORATED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, ALPHABET INCORPORATED

For markets, the devil was in the lack of detail

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 29 : 13-Jan-17

Ewa Turek of Morgan Stanley notes that the first press conference of US president-elect Donald Trump offered few details of the policies he will prioritise after taking office. US markets posted modest gains in response to the press conference, while the Australian market dipped slightly. Garry Laurence of Perpetual adds that investors are waiting for more details of Trump’s policies, as well as guidance regarding the outlook for US interest rates.

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MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, WINGATE ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Clinton on edge of victory

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 13 : 9-Nov-16

Sharemarkets rallied on 8 November 2016, amid growing expectations that Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton will win the US presidential election. Public opinion polls suggest that Clinton will defeat Republican Party rival Donald Trump, although the result is likely to be very close. However, Trump remained confident of victory as he visited several states on the last day of campaigning for the election. An estimated 40 million Americans had voted prior to election day.

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DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES), REPUBLICAN PARTY (UNITED STATES), STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS, REAL CLEAR POLITICS