Stocks lashed by recession fears

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 4-Oct-19

Factors such as growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and a ruling from the WTO that has cleared the US to impose tariffs on European Union imports have weighed on investors worldwide. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 2.9 per cent so far in October, while the S&P 500 in the US has fallen by three per cent. Aaryn Nania of Lucerne Investment Partners warns that investors should expect further market volatility, although Robert Buckland of Citigroup says it is too soon to predict a recession in the US and the end of the bull market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, LUCERNE INVESTMENT PARTNERS, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX

Hopes for tariff truce as US, China resume talks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 6-Sep-19

Sharemarkets across the Asia-Pacific region rallied on 5 September as investors welcomed news that the US and China will hold trade discussions in early October. Both nations imposed new tariffs at the start of September, while the US is scheduled to increase tariffs on a range of Chinese goods on 1 October. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in an 88 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in October, followed by another rate cut by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX

Funds brace for more volatility

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 27-Aug-19

Federation Asset Management chairman Greg Bundy says financial markets will keep falling, as he does not expect the US-China trade war to be resolved for some time. Matt Sherwood of Perpetual agrees that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the trade dispute. Bearish sentiment slashed the value of Australian stocks by around $26bn on 26 August, while the yield on 10-year Australian government bonds fell to 0.88 per cent. Shares in gold producers also rallied as investors sought out ‘safe-haven’ assets.

CORPORATES
FEDERATION ASSET MANAGEMENT, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Risks build as central banks push on a string

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Jun-19

There is a growing view that further monetary policy easing will do little to stimulate economic growth. Expectations of further interest rate cuts have seen Australia’s All Ordinaries Index gain 18 per cent so far in 2019. Matthew Brooks of Macquarie Group notes that the Australian sharemarket rose by an average of 12 per cent after the first interest rate cut in eight of the 11 easing cycles since 1971, while the S&P 500 was up at least 10 per cent a year. The other three easing cycles coincided with recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

After all the carnage, it may soon be time to buy

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Jan-19

The S&P/ASX 200’s recent rally has seen its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio return to its long-term average following a sharp sell-down in the December quarter. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is trading at around eight per cent below its long-term average. The near-term outlook for equities may depend on a range of factors, including trade negotiations between the US and China.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX

Markets take cautious view of historic talks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 13-Jun-18

The summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has had relatively little impact on global financial markets. Royal Bank of Canada’s Sue Trinh says the upcoming release of key economic data in the US and Australia will be a greater focus for financial markets in the near-term, noting that the two leaders differ on just what "complete denuclearisation" on the Korean peninsula will entail. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is tipped to tighten monetary policy at its monthly meeting.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, KOSPI INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Cohn exit triggers shockwaves

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Mar-18

Sharemarkets in the Asia-Pacific region fell on 7 March in response to the resignation of President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, and futures pricing suggests further bearishness on Wall Street. Cohn was an advocate of free trade, and analysts say his resignation will heighten concerns about the potential for a trade war. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe says there could be major ramifications for the global economy if Trump were to broaden his tariff policy beyond steel and aluminium.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IG MARKETS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF COMMERCE, SAXO BANK A/S, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, VISY INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED

Share indexes tipped to test recent lows

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 15-Feb-18

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Bull & Bear Indicator suggests that global equities face a further pullback and could fall to around the level seen during the recent sharemarket rout. Meanwhile, BAML’s latest survey of fund managers shows that respondents’ average cash balance has risen by 0.3 per cent to 4.7 per cent, while equity allocation has fallen by 12 per cent and bond allocation has fallen to the lowest level in two decades.

CORPORATES
BANK OF AMERICA NA, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Shaky markets signal more share pain on way

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Feb-18

Futures pricing suggests that the US sharemarket will experience further volatility, despite a rebound on 7 February. The bearish investor sentiment of recent days has prompted renewed support for "safe-haven" assets, including US government bonds and currencies such as the yen. Meanwhile, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index briefly rose above 50 per cent on 7 February, compared with just 11.5 per cent a week earlier. However, Jeremy Lawson of Aberdeen Standard Investments does not expect global sharemarket volatility to be sustained.

CORPORATES
CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX, ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, CREDIT SUISSE AG, BELL ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BLM, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, FTSE 100 INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX

Bulls to run all year but risks build for 2019

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 3-Nov-17

The S&P 500 has gained 15.2 per cent so far in 2017, while the S&P/ASX 200 has risen by just 4.7 per cent. They have gained 17 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively when dividends are included. John Normand of JP Morgan expects equities to continue to rally in 2018, although he says the S&P 500 is likely to record growth in the low double-digits when dividends are taken into account. Meanwhile, he is bearish about the outlook for government bonds, and warns that there are a number of risk factors for global financial markets in 2019.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES