World hunkers down for fight against virus

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 29 : 6-Mar-20

Investors have responded positively to the announcement of economic stimulus measures in Australia and the US in response to the coronavirus. Wall Street and sharemarkets across the Asia-Pacific region rallied on 5 March, while the yield on 10-year Australian government bonds rose six basis points to 0.78 per cent. Meanwhile, financial markets expect further official interest rate cuts in both Australia and the US in coming months.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, TAIEX INDEX

Caution urged after euphoric stock recovery

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 26 : 7-Feb-20

Global sharemarkets have rebounded quickly from a sharp fall in response to the coronavirus, with Wall Street reaching a new high and the Australian bourse approaching its record peak. However, equity strategists have warned that the rally may not be sustained; they note that it has been driven by factors such as indications that the coronavirus’s spread may be slowing and the recent move by the People’s Bank of China to increase market liquidity.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA

Conditions ideal for melt-up in world markets

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 10-Jan-20

The S&P/ASX 200 fell just shy of the record 6,893.7 points on 9 January, as tensions between the US and Iran eased. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 reached a new intra-day high. Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald says the S&P 500 could potentially reach 3,300 points in the near-term, but he expects it to fall to 2,880 by the end of 2020. However, there is every indication that equities markets in developed countries will continue to rally in the near-term; the Australian market will receive a further boost if the cash rate is reduced in February.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, CANTOR FITZGERALD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Stocks lashed by recession fears

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 4-Oct-19

Factors such as growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and a ruling from the WTO that has cleared the US to impose tariffs on European Union imports have weighed on investors worldwide. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 has shed 2.9 per cent so far in October, while the S&P 500 in the US has fallen by three per cent. Aaryn Nania of Lucerne Investment Partners warns that investors should expect further market volatility, although Robert Buckland of Citigroup says it is too soon to predict a recession in the US and the end of the bull market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, LUCERNE INVESTMENT PARTNERS, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, EURO STOXX 50 INDEX

Hopes for tariff truce as US, China resume talks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 6-Sep-19

Sharemarkets across the Asia-Pacific region rallied on 5 September as investors welcomed news that the US and China will hold trade discussions in early October. Both nations imposed new tariffs at the start of September, while the US is scheduled to increase tariffs on a range of Chinese goods on 1 October. Meanwhile, financial markets have priced in an 88 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce official interest rates in October, followed by another rate cut by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX

Funds brace for more volatility

Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 27-Aug-19

Federation Asset Management chairman Greg Bundy says financial markets will keep falling, as he does not expect the US-China trade war to be resolved for some time. Matt Sherwood of Perpetual agrees that there is unlikely to be a quick resolution to the trade dispute. Bearish sentiment slashed the value of Australian stocks by around $26bn on 26 August, while the yield on 10-year Australian government bonds fell to 0.88 per cent. Shares in gold producers also rallied as investors sought out ‘safe-haven’ assets.

CORPORATES
FEDERATION ASSET MANAGEMENT, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Risks build as central banks push on a string

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Jun-19

There is a growing view that further monetary policy easing will do little to stimulate economic growth. Expectations of further interest rate cuts have seen Australia’s All Ordinaries Index gain 18 per cent so far in 2019. Matthew Brooks of Macquarie Group notes that the Australian sharemarket rose by an average of 12 per cent after the first interest rate cut in eight of the 11 easing cycles since 1971, while the S&P 500 was up at least 10 per cent a year. The other three easing cycles coincided with recessions.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

After all the carnage, it may soon be time to buy

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Jan-19

The S&P/ASX 200’s recent rally has seen its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio return to its long-term average following a sharp sell-down in the December quarter. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is trading at around eight per cent below its long-term average. The near-term outlook for equities may depend on a range of factors, including trade negotiations between the US and China.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, MSCI ALL COUNTRY WORLD INDEX

Markets take cautious view of historic talks

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 28 : 13-Jun-18

The summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has had relatively little impact on global financial markets. Royal Bank of Canada’s Sue Trinh says the upcoming release of key economic data in the US and Australia will be a greater focus for financial markets in the near-term, noting that the two leaders differ on just what "complete denuclearisation" on the Korean peninsula will entail. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is tipped to tighten monetary policy at its monthly meeting.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, KOSPI INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Cohn exit triggers shockwaves

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 8-Mar-18

Sharemarkets in the Asia-Pacific region fell on 7 March in response to the resignation of President Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, and futures pricing suggests further bearishness on Wall Street. Cohn was an advocate of free trade, and analysts say his resignation will heighten concerns about the potential for a trade war. Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe says there could be major ramifications for the global economy if Trump were to broaden his tariff policy beyond steel and aluminium.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, IG MARKETS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. DEPT OF COMMERCE, SAXO BANK A/S, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, VISY INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, NIKKEI 225 INDEX, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, HANG SENG INDEX, KOSPI INDEX, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED