SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Golden time as bullion hits new heights

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Original article by Charlie Cunningham
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 24-Dec-25

The gold price has risen by more than 70 per cent so far in 2025, which is the strongest annual performance for the ‘safe haven’ in over four decades. The spot price reached a new peak of $US4,497.80 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with about $US2,624/oz at the start of this year. Factors such as central bank buying and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the rally in the gold price, as well as the shares of Australian-listed gold producers. Meanwhile, Justin Lin from Global X says the gold price could potentially rise to around $US5,000/oz in 2026.

CORPORATES
GLOBAL X ETFS AUSTRALIA

Insatiable US demand to buoy Australian beef

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 19-Nov-25

Australia exported a record $1.6bn worth of beef to the US in the September quarter. Analysts expect US demand for Australian beef to remain strong, despite the Trump administration’s move to reduce the tariff on beef from rival exporters such as Brazil. Angus Gidley-Baird from Rabobank says this will reduce Australia’s competitive advantage, given that the nation was already subject to a lower tariff on beef exports; however, he notes that the tariff on Brazilian beef will still be higher.

CORPORATES
RABOBANK AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Gas crisis: Bowen calls on reserves

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Original article by Greg Brown, Colin Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 1-Jul-25

The federal government will undertake a review of the east coast gas market, amid new fears that a shortage could potentially occur by the end of 2025. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has indicated that the government will require new gas projects to supply some of their output to the domestic market, although the policy will not affect the LNG export contracts of existing projects. The government will also consider the option of an east coast reservation scheme, which the Opposition had proposed during its ill-fated election campaign. Bowen has conceded that gas will be crucial to the energy transition, although he remains upbeat about the nation’s troubled green hydrogen industry.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, THE ENVIRONMENT AND WATER

Gurner warns tenants of 15-year rental crisis

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Original article by Sarah Petty
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-May-25

Data from Cotalitys shows that housing market rents have increased by 39.9 per cent since March 2019. Rent payments now account for about one-third of many tenants’ income. Apartment developer Tim Gurner has warned that the nation’s rental crisis is likely to last for up to 15 years, due to the lack of sufficient new housing supply. He notes that vacancy rates are about one per cent in every state, while construction supply is at a 10-year low and population growth is at record levels. Gurner adds that high construction costs are the biggest problem for property developers.

CORPORATES
COTALITY

Exporters brace for LNG new wave

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 8-Jan-25

Global supply of LNG is expected to ramp up in 2025, which is likely to weigh on local producers and the federal government’s revenue. The increase in production had been slated to occur in 2024, but delays to a number of LNG projects resulted in this being pushed back to 2025. Meanwhile, EnergyQuest notes that global output of LNG is expected to rise by about 50 million tonnes per annum from 2026, while Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee says there is likely to be a global oversupply of LNG beyond 2026.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, MST MARQUEE

Green transition tailwind at our backs: Rio and BHP

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Original article by Cameron England
The Australian – Page: 20 : 2-Oct-24

Rio Tinto Jakob Stausholm says the energy transition is at the heart of the resources group’s strategy. He has used a London Metals Exchange speech to argue that while the transition to net zero emissions is underway, it is not occurring quickly enough; he adds that the energy transition will significantly boost demand for the minerals that Rio Tinto produces, including copper, aluminium, lithium and high-grade iron ore for ‘green’ steel. Meanwhile, BHP has forecast that the energy transition will boost global demand for copper.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, LONDON METAL EXCHANGE LIMITED

CBA warns of $US80 iron ore price as China crisis deepens

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 18-Sep-24

Iron ore futures were trading at around $US92.50 per tonne on Tuesday, after falling below $US90 last week. The iron ore price has shed about 20 per cent since July, amid a rising global surplus of the steel input and growing concerns about the outlook for China’s property sector. Goldman Sachs now expects the iron ore price to test the $US85/tonne level in the December quarter, compared with its previous forecast of $US100. Meanwhile, Vivak Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank says the iron ore price could potentially fall to around $US80/tonne in the near-term.

CORPORATES
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Iron ore drops below $US90 in China’s contagion

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 10-Sep-24

The price of iron fell below $US90 per tonne on Monday; the steel input had not previously tested this level since November 2022, and it followed a fall of nearly 10 per cent in the previous week. Other commodities have also fallen sharply in recent times, including copper and Brent crude oil. The sell-off has been prompted by concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy, and whether the official annual growth target of five per cent can be achieved. Damien Boey from Barrenjoey notes that financial markets are concerned that an economic slowdown in China could flow through to other countries.

CORPORATES
BARRENJOEY CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD

Lithium prices have crashed this year, squeezing margins at Australian miners

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Original article by Clint Jasper
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 3-Sep-24

The lithium price peaked in 2022, but the battery mineral has fallen by about 50 per cent in the last 12 months. Demand for lithium remains strong, amid a growing consumer shift to electric vehicles and the push to decarbonise economies by transitioning to renewables such as wind and solar; however, this is being offset by rising global supply, which is expected to increase in coming years as more lithium mines commence production. Core Lithium put its Finnis mine into ‘care and maintenance’ mode earlier in 2024, while Mineral Resources is reducing its lithium output. In contrast, Pilbara Minerals aims to increase lithium production by 50 per cent over the next year: MD Dale Henderson says the long-term outlook for lithium is "fantastic".

CORPORATES
CORE LITHIUM LIMITED – ASX CXO, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS

Steel carnage to sink iron ore below $US90

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 13-Aug-24

The iron ore price is now about 30 per cent below its January peak, although the steel input is still trading at around $US100 per tonne. However, Robert Rennie of Westpac contends that problems within the steel industry means that the iron ore price should be around the mid-to late-$US80 level at present. He says it is only a matter of time before the "absolute carnage" in the steel industry is reflected in the iron ore price. Chinese steel mills’ margins have fallen sharply, and a MySteel survey has found that just five per cent of them were profitable last week. Further production cuts may be looming, which would dampen demand for iron ore.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED