SUPPLY AND DEMAND

UBS sees sharp drop in iron ore price

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Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Australian – Page: 16 : 6-Apr-21

UBS expects a looming increase in global iron ore supply to result in the price of the steel input falling below $US100 per tonne in the December 2021 quarter. The iron price peaked at more than $US170 per tonne earlier in the year, but UBS says it is reaching an ‘inflection point’. The firm notes that iron ore shipments from Brazil are increasing, while inventories at Chinese ports are increasing. UBS has reduced its share price targets for Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group; the firm has also downgraded its recommendation on the latter two from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Building approvals bounce back on HomeBuilder

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 1-Apr-21

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that approvals for stand-alone homes increased by nearly 14 per cent month-on-month in February, to 14,072 in seasonally adjusted terms. Approvals for apartments and townhouses increased by 49 per cent to 5,350; however, this followed a 39 per cent fall in January. Economists say the federal government’s HomeBuilder scheme has been a major catalyst for the strong demand for housing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Forrest’s LNG import vital to avoid shortfall

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 29-Mar-21

Andrew Forrest’s proposed LNG import terminal at Port Kembla in New South Wales is tipped to inject up to 500 terajoules of gas into the domestic market per day, beginning in January 2023. Nicola Falcon from the Australian Energy Market Operator says the project comes at a critical time, with current gas production in Victoria falling at a faster rate than was previously forecast. The Port Kembla project is expected to cost in the vicinity of $250 million and is one of six LNG import projects being flagged for NSW, Victoria and South Australia.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED

Co-working occupancies coming back to life after brutal year

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Original article by Martin Kelly
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 & 32 : 17-Feb-21

Hub Australia CEO Brad Krauskopf says the average occupancy rate across his company’s eight co-working sites is currently around 70 per cent. This remains well below the pre-coronavirus average of more than 90 per cent, but Krauskopf notes that there has been a 250 per cent increase in enquiries since the start of 2021. The Commons’ MD Cliff Ho says occupancy at its Sydney Central site is almost back to the pre-pandemic level, although occupancy at its four sites in Melbourne is currently at around 70-75 per cent.

CORPORATES
HUB AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, THE COMMONS

Coal exports to steady before a slide

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Original article by Joe Kelly
The Australian – Page: 4 : 9-Feb-21

The New South Wales government has forecast that demand for the state’s thermal coal in Asia will remain strong at more than 600 million metric tonnes a year until 2030. However, this is expected to gradually decline to about 470 million metric tonnes in 2050 as the global transition to alternative sources of energy generation gathers pace. The government document also notes that the industry contributes about 22,000 direct jobs to the state economy, as well as some 89,000 indirect jobs.

CORPORATES

Emerging Asia’s appetite for coal may be fading

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Original article by Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 15-Jan-21

A report from the Global Energy Monitor on future demand for thermal coal in Asia may have implications for one of Australia’s biggest sources of export revenue. The report concludes that developing nations in the region may build just 25 gigawatts of new coal-fired power stations in 2021, compared with the 125GW that was planned five years ago. Australia’s thermal coal exports to developing countries in Asia have increased significantly in recent years, offsetting a decline in demand from traditional buyers in the region as they adopt net zero emission targets.

CORPORATES
GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR

Producers to reap windfall as LNG price soars

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 17 : 11-Jan-21

Australia’s revenue from LNG exports is likely to rise strongly after a surge in demand for LNG in Asia boosted the price of the commodity. Industry sources have stated that a Japanese utility has paid $US37 per million British thermal units for an LNG shipment from the Gorgon project in Western Australia. The benchmark for LNG spot prices in North Asia also recently rose to $US20.70 per mbtu, compared with just $US2 per mbtu in June. Cold weather in Asia has been the key driver of the surge in demand for LNG.

CORPORATES

Iron ore to defy probe threat

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 16-Dec-20

Shares in Australia’s major iron producers retreated on 15 December in response to the China Iron & Steel Association’s call for regulatory intervention to address the rising iron ore price. However, resources analysts expect the iron ore price to remain high in the near-term, due to continued strong demand for steel in China. Lyndon Fagan of JP Morgan expects the benchmark price to average about $US140 a tonne in the March 2021 quarter and $US126 a tonne for the calendar year.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Extra power locked in for summer

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 27-Nov-20

The Australian Energy Market Operator has released its ‘summer readiness’ plan for the power market. AEMO has contracted over 1,900 megawatts of extra emergency power generating capacity for the 2020-21 summer peak, although heatwave and bushfire conditions are not expected to be as severe as in 2019-20. AEMO COO Michael Gatt notes that heatwaves and bushfires remain a "prominent risk", while predicted El Nino weather patterns means there is an increased risk of tropical cyclones and flooding.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED

Rift no barrier to China iron ore demand

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 15-Jul-20

China has reported that its iron ore imports rose by 35.3 per cent year-on-year in June, following 3.9 per cent growth in May. The customs figures also show that the nation’s iron ore imports rose by 9.6 per cent to 547 million tonnes in the first six months of 2020. Xu Xiangchun of MySteel expects demand for iron ore to remain strong in coming months, but not at the same pace as June. China’s imports of Australian iron ore have not been impacted by growing tensions between the two nations.

CORPORATES
CHINA. GENERAL ADMINISTRATION OF CUSTOMS, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED