SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Emerging Asia’s appetite for coal may be fading

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Original article by Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 15-Jan-21

A report from the Global Energy Monitor on future demand for thermal coal in Asia may have implications for one of Australia’s biggest sources of export revenue. The report concludes that developing nations in the region may build just 25 gigawatts of new coal-fired power stations in 2021, compared with the 125GW that was planned five years ago. Australia’s thermal coal exports to developing countries in Asia have increased significantly in recent years, offsetting a decline in demand from traditional buyers in the region as they adopt net zero emission targets.

CORPORATES
GLOBAL ENERGY MONITOR

Producers to reap windfall as LNG price soars

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 17 : 11-Jan-21

Australia’s revenue from LNG exports is likely to rise strongly after a surge in demand for LNG in Asia boosted the price of the commodity. Industry sources have stated that a Japanese utility has paid $US37 per million British thermal units for an LNG shipment from the Gorgon project in Western Australia. The benchmark for LNG spot prices in North Asia also recently rose to $US20.70 per mbtu, compared with just $US2 per mbtu in June. Cold weather in Asia has been the key driver of the surge in demand for LNG.

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Iron ore to defy probe threat

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 16-Dec-20

Shares in Australia’s major iron producers retreated on 15 December in response to the China Iron & Steel Association’s call for regulatory intervention to address the rising iron ore price. However, resources analysts expect the iron ore price to remain high in the near-term, due to continued strong demand for steel in China. Lyndon Fagan of JP Morgan expects the benchmark price to average about $US140 a tonne in the March 2021 quarter and $US126 a tonne for the calendar year.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Extra power locked in for summer

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 27-Nov-20

The Australian Energy Market Operator has released its ‘summer readiness’ plan for the power market. AEMO has contracted over 1,900 megawatts of extra emergency power generating capacity for the 2020-21 summer peak, although heatwave and bushfire conditions are not expected to be as severe as in 2019-20. AEMO COO Michael Gatt notes that heatwaves and bushfires remain a "prominent risk", while predicted El Nino weather patterns means there is an increased risk of tropical cyclones and flooding.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED

Rift no barrier to China iron ore demand

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 15-Jul-20

China has reported that its iron ore imports rose by 35.3 per cent year-on-year in June, following 3.9 per cent growth in May. The customs figures also show that the nation’s iron ore imports rose by 9.6 per cent to 547 million tonnes in the first six months of 2020. Xu Xiangchun of MySteel expects demand for iron ore to remain strong in coming months, but not at the same pace as June. China’s imports of Australian iron ore have not been impacted by growing tensions between the two nations.

CORPORATES
CHINA. GENERAL ADMINISTRATION OF CUSTOMS, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED

HomeBuilder scheme prompts oversupply fears

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 9-Jul-20

Some residential property developers have reported a sharp rise in sales since the federal government announced its six-month HomeBuilder scheme in June. Cedar Woods’ chief financial officer Leon Hanrahan has warned that some developers could overbuild in response to the scheme, resulting in an oversupply of new housing. Jeremy Sheppard of Select Residential Property says the risk of an oversupply is particularly high at housing estates in the outer suburbs of capital cities.

CORPORATES
CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED – ASX CWP, SELECT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY

Iron ore exports to China at risk

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 26-Jun-20

Chinese research firm MySteel states that China’s demand for steel fell by between five and six per cent in the first half of 2020, but should improve in coming months with more infrastructure projects being initiated. MySteel’s chief information officer Xu Xiangchun says Chinese steel mills might look to alternative sources for iron ore if there is a perception among the Chinese public that Australia is ‘difficult’, while China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute president Li Xinchuang says it is important that China diversifies its iron ore supplies.

CORPORATES
MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED, CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Boom times back for iron ore

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 22-May-20

Adrian Prendergast of Morgans Financial says continued strong demand from China could see the iron ore price rise above $US120 a tonne. Reduced output by Brazilian iron ore group Vale is also likely to boost the price of the steel input; Prendergast notes that Vale’s shipments have totalled just 91 million tonnes so far in 2020, and it will have to ramp up production to meet its revised full-year guidance of 310 to 330 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Australian iron ore miners have downplayed the impact of China’s new rules for inspecting iron ore imports, stressing that they had been planned for some time and were implemented after extensive consultation.

CORPORATES
MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Towering infernos of cash

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Original article by Brad Norington, Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 22-May-20

Citigroup has forecast that the value of office buildings in Australia’s major CBDs could fall by more than 15 per cent in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Demand for centralised office space is likely to fall if the shift to working from home is sustained once the crisis abates. This in turn could put downward pressure on office rents. Meanwhile, JLL has forecast that the total amount of vacant office space across the nation’s CBDs will rise from 1.46 million square metres prior to the pandemic to about 1.88 million square metres by the end of 2020.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

China pays more for iron ore

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 16 : 19-May-20

The iron ore price has risen by more than 13 per cent since the end of April, and futures pricing suggests that further gains are likely. The price of the steel input has been resilient during the coronavirus pandemic, due to factors such as continued strong demand for iron ore in China and the fact that major producer Brazil has been hit hard by the virus. Citigroup’s analysts expect the continued strong price of iron ore to result in the resources sector paying out $14.4bn in dividends for 2019-20. The banking sector in turn is tipped to pay out $14.7bn.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG