SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Rift no barrier to China iron ore demand

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 15-Jul-20

China has reported that its iron ore imports rose by 35.3 per cent year-on-year in June, following 3.9 per cent growth in May. The customs figures also show that the nation’s iron ore imports rose by 9.6 per cent to 547 million tonnes in the first six months of 2020. Xu Xiangchun of MySteel expects demand for iron ore to remain strong in coming months, but not at the same pace as June. China’s imports of Australian iron ore have not been impacted by growing tensions between the two nations.

CORPORATES
CHINA. GENERAL ADMINISTRATION OF CUSTOMS, MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED

HomeBuilder scheme prompts oversupply fears

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 9-Jul-20

Some residential property developers have reported a sharp rise in sales since the federal government announced its six-month HomeBuilder scheme in June. Cedar Woods’ chief financial officer Leon Hanrahan has warned that some developers could overbuild in response to the scheme, resulting in an oversupply of new housing. Jeremy Sheppard of Select Residential Property says the risk of an oversupply is particularly high at housing estates in the outer suburbs of capital cities.

CORPORATES
CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED – ASX CWP, SELECT RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY

Iron ore exports to China at risk

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 26-Jun-20

Chinese research firm MySteel states that China’s demand for steel fell by between five and six per cent in the first half of 2020, but should improve in coming months with more infrastructure projects being initiated. MySteel’s chief information officer Xu Xiangchun says Chinese steel mills might look to alternative sources for iron ore if there is a perception among the Chinese public that Australia is ‘difficult’, while China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute president Li Xinchuang says it is important that China diversifies its iron ore supplies.

CORPORATES
MYSTEEL.COM LIMITED, CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Boom times back for iron ore

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 22-May-20

Adrian Prendergast of Morgans Financial says continued strong demand from China could see the iron ore price rise above $US120 a tonne. Reduced output by Brazilian iron ore group Vale is also likely to boost the price of the steel input; Prendergast notes that Vale’s shipments have totalled just 91 million tonnes so far in 2020, and it will have to ramp up production to meet its revised full-year guidance of 310 to 330 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Australian iron ore miners have downplayed the impact of China’s new rules for inspecting iron ore imports, stressing that they had been planned for some time and were implemented after extensive consultation.

CORPORATES
MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, VALE SA, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Towering infernos of cash

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Original article by Brad Norington, Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 22-May-20

Citigroup has forecast that the value of office buildings in Australia’s major CBDs could fall by more than 15 per cent in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Demand for centralised office space is likely to fall if the shift to working from home is sustained once the crisis abates. This in turn could put downward pressure on office rents. Meanwhile, JLL has forecast that the total amount of vacant office space across the nation’s CBDs will rise from 1.46 million square metres prior to the pandemic to about 1.88 million square metres by the end of 2020.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

China pays more for iron ore

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 16 : 19-May-20

The iron ore price has risen by more than 13 per cent since the end of April, and futures pricing suggests that further gains are likely. The price of the steel input has been resilient during the coronavirus pandemic, due to factors such as continued strong demand for iron ore in China and the fact that major producer Brazil has been hit hard by the virus. Citigroup’s analysts expect the continued strong price of iron ore to result in the resources sector paying out $14.4bn in dividends for 2019-20. The banking sector in turn is tipped to pay out $14.7bn.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Beijing options limited to Australian iron ore

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Original article by Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 15-May-20

China imported 62 per cent of its iron ore from Australia in 2019, compared to only 21 per cent from Brazil. However, a report in a state-owned Chinese newspaper has raised the possibility that China could replace iron ore from Australia with iron ore from Brazil as part of the growing trade tensions. However, Glyn Lawcock of UBS notes that the global iron ore market is very tight at the moment. Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines expects Chinese demand for Australian iron ore to continue to rise.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

China unlikely to target iron ore in virus blame game

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 13-May-20

Commonwealth Bank commodity strategist Vivek Dhar does not expect China to reduce imports of Australian iron ore despite the growing trade tensions between the two nations. He contends that China is too reliant on iron ore from Australia, noting that 85 per cent of its iron ore imports are sourced from Australia. Dhar adds that exports of commodities such as coal are at greater risk, as they can be sourced more easily from other countries. Analysts also expect any economic stimulus measures in China to boost demand for steel, and therefore iron ore.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Price collapse burying 31pc of coal mines

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 & 16 : 11-May-20

The coronavirus pandemic has resulted in a sharp fall in demand from major thermal coal buyers such as Japan and India. This has in turn seen the price of top quality coal from New South Wales and Queensland falling by 27 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. Rory Simington of Wood Mackenzie estimates that about 31 per cent of Australia’s thermal coal exports are unprofitable at current prices. He adds that a significant proportion of Australia’s coal output is sold via long-term contracts. However, the recent price falls will eventually flow through to future contracts.

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE

Full steel ahead for Fortescue as China draws down ore stockpiles

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 6-May-20

Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines expects demand for iron ore to remain strong due to China’s urbanisation policy. China produced 234.5 million tonnes of crude steel in the March quarter, which is 1.2 per cent higher than the same period in 2019. Gaines says that any additional economic stimulus in China would further boost demand for steel, and therefore iron ore. Meanwhile, Gaines is confident that Fortescue’s application to increase its export capacity at Port Hedland by 20 per cent will be approved.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG