SUPPLY AND DEMAND

EV rollout threat to power grid

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Apr-19

Energy Networks Australia has used a submission to a Senate inquiry to warn that the nation’s electricity grid may not be equipped to cope with the growing use of electric vehicles. The peak energy network body argued that incentives will be necessary to encourage consumers to recharge their electric cars during off-peak periods. Labor recently announced that it will require electric vehicles to account for 50 per cent of new car sales by 2030 if it wins the upcoming federal election.

CORPORATES
ENERGY NETWORKS AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERSHIPS AUSTRALIA, COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENTS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Fortescue expects China’s ore demand to stay strong

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 29-Mar-19

Fortescue Metals Group CEO Elizabeth Gaines says there are no indications that Chinese steel production is contracting. She adds that the general consensus of Fortescue’s iron ore customers in China is that growth in steel output will to slow to 3-4 per cent in 2019. This follows 12 per cent growth in 2018. Gaines has also indicated that China’s move to restrict Australian coal imports has had no impact on Fortescue’s iron ore shipments. The pure-play miner has resumed shipments from Port Hedland in the wake of Cyclone Veronica.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BOAO FORUM FOR ASIA, SHANGHAI BAOSTEEL GROUP CORPORATION, FORMOSA GROUP, VALE SA

Brazil mine ruling brings doubt

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 22 : 21-Mar-19

The iron ore price fell sharply on 20 March after a Brazilian court ruled that Vale can resume production at its Brucutu mine, whose annual capacity is 30 million tonnes. The ruling also weighed on the share price of Fortescue Metals Group, which has been a major beneficiary of reduced output in Brazil in the wake of the Brumadinho tailings dam disaster in January. Fortescue COO Greg Lilleyman has told a conference in Perth that Chinese demand for the company’s lower-grade iron ore remains strong, and stockpiles of its ore at Chinese ports have been falling.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Gas supply glut deflates prices for exporters

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 24 : 15-Mar-19

Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge an increase in global LNG supply in 2019 will put downward pressure on spot prices, which will in turn impact on Australia’s LNG exporters. It is estimated that up to 58 million tonnes of additional LNG production may be approved during 2019, while a final investment decision regarding another 64 million tonnes of supply is slated for 2020.

CORPORATES
BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, TOTAL SA, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION

Rate cuts, not supply, the key to house prices

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 12-Mar-19

Reserve Bank of Australia analysts Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip have concluded that monetary policy has the biggest impact on house prices and the level of construction activity. They argue that historically low interest rates have been the major driver of rising house prices in recent years, while factors such as construction costs and population growth have had a smaller impact. In contrast, RBA governor Philip Lowe recently suggested that housing supply has been the major influence on prices.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Gas shortage to hit within three years

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 27-Feb-19

EnergyQuest has forecast that states on the east coast of Australia will experience a shortage of gas by 2022, and they will have insufficient gas to meet peak demand by 2026. The consultancy has also warned that while Queensland will be able to increase supply to the east coast in the near-term, the state’s own production will begin to decline from 2025. EnergyQuest CEO Graeme Bethune says the expected shortfall means importing LNG is likely to be the best option. The looming gas shortage is also forecast to result in gas prices remaining high over the long-term.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Thermal coal prices set to rebound this year

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 19-Feb-19

New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that the value of the nation’s coal exports rose to a record $66.2bn in 2018. Meanwhile, Viktor Tanevski of Wood Mackenzie forecasts that demand for bituminous thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific region will rise by three million tonnes in 2019. He also expects the price of high-energy Australian thermal coal to recover to $US98 per tonne after testing the $US88 level earlier in 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WOOD MACKENZIE, MACH ENERGY, GLENCORE PLC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32

Households may have to pay more to ease power crunches

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Original article by Ben Potter, Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 29-Jan-19

The Grattan Institute’s energy program director Tony Wood has cautioned against an overreaction to the recent rolling power blackouts that impacted South Australia and Victoria. Charging consumers more to use air conditioners during extreme heat has been put forward as one solution to the problem of matching demand with supply during such weather conditions, as has simplifying the regulatory test for new transmission links.

CORPORATES
GRATTAN INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, TRANSGRID, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SCHNEIDER AUSTRALIA

Heatwave triggers AEMO reserve shortfall warning

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 15-Jan-19

A heatwave in Victoria has prompted the Australian Energy Market Operator to issue a reserve warning, amid fears that the state could be hit by blackouts. Energy experts state that the reserve warning is a signal from AEMO to the electricity market that it is seeking more capacity, and is not necessarily a cause for alarm. EnergyAustralia has stated that it has around 20 megawatts of capacity in Victoria that can be activated at times of high demand. Northern parts of Victoria have been subject to very high temperatures in recent days.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, AUSTRALIA. BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG

Energy stocks crunched as oil price slides

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 13 : 20-Dec-18

The price of Brent crude oil has shed about 34 per cent since October, with shares in Australia’s three biggest oil producers falling by more than 20 per cent over the same period. London Capital Group’s Jasper Lawler says the downturn in oil prices will result in "significant" deflationary pressure. However, airlines, mining companies and motorists are set to benefit from the sustained fall in the oil price, while US Bank Wealth Management’s Rob Haworth says OPEC’s recent cut in oil production may not be sufficient to offset weakening global demand and rising US shale output.

CORPORATES
LONDON CAPITAL GROUP, US BANK WEALTH MANAGEMENT, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY