SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Coal demand resilient in face of risks

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 19-Dec-18

A new report from the International Energy Agency shows that coal-fired power generation increased by three per cent in 2017 and is expected to grow again in 2018. The IEA’s annual coal outlook also notes that coal’s share of the global energy mix was steady at 38 per cent in 2017. IEA executive director Fatih Birol says coal will remain a major source of power generation for some time. Meanwhile, the IEA forecasts that Australia’s thermal coal exports will rise over the next five years.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, ADANI MINING PTY LTD

No New Year’s cheer for iron ore: analysts

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 3-Dec-18

Data from Fastmarkets MB shows that the spot price for iron ore with 62 per cent iron content was trading at $US65.95 a tonne at the end of November, having peaked at a month-high of $US77.2/tonne on 9 November. Analysts from Liberum Capital are bearish about the outlook for iron ore, forecasting that falling Chinese steel mill profits will reduce demand for higher-grade ore. Liberum has also changed its recommendation on shares in Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Anglo American to "sell".

CORPORATES
FASTMARKETS MB, LIBERUM CAPITAL LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, WEALTH WITHIN PTY LTD

Sentiment turns for Fortescue

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 : 29-Nov-18

Fortescue Metals Group expects to benefit from the recent decline in Chinese steel producers’ margins. Danny Goeman, the pure-play iron ore miner’s director of sales and marketing, notes that lower margins in the sector tend to boost demand for lower-grade iron ore, adding that this trend has occurred in recent days. The renewed demand for lower-grade ore has coincided with the first shipment of Fortescue’s higher-grade West Pilbara fines product, which is slated for December.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Rio still upbeat on Chinese demand

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 20 : 13-Nov-18

Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques says the Chinese steel industry’s demand for higher-grade iron ore remains strong in the wake of production capacity cutbacks and measures aimed at reducing air pollution. He has also told the UBS Australasia conference in Sydney that structural changes in the aluminium sector will take longer to have an impact

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

China’s steel mills thriving

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 20 : 8-Nov-18

Fortescue Metals Group Elizabeth Gaines says the trade war with the US has not affected China’s steel production, which was higher than expected in September. Gaines adds that China’s infrastructure investment program has been a key driver of the high level of steel production, which in turn has prompted a rally in the iron ore price. Fortescue has signed memorandums of understanding with eight public and private steel mills at the China import expo in Shanghai.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BAOWU STEEL GROUP, HEBEI WENFENG IRON AND STEEL COMPANY LIMITED

BHP cuts US, China growth targets on trade tensions

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 31-Oct-18

BHP Billiton has forecast that GDP growth for both China and the US will be cut by 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent over the next two years as a result of the trade war between the two nations. However, BHP’s chief commercial officer Arnoud Balhuizen says the trade tensions have not yet had a "material impact" on the resources giant, even though it has weighed on the prices of some commodities. Balhuizen expects demand for iron ore and coking coal to remain strong in 2019.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

China’s coal clamps no surprise, says Yancoal

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 9-Oct-18

James Rickards, Yancoal Australia’s general manager of investor relations, does not expect coal prices to be significantly affected by China’s move to reduce thermal coal imports. He argues that it had been widely anticipated, as the Chinese government tends to curb coal imports every year in order to support local producers. Meanwhile, Lachlan Shaw of UBS says Chinese demand for thermal coal is likely to remain strong during the upcoming northern winter.

CORPORATES
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Shutdowns to hit China coal hardest

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 19-Sep-18

New Hope Corporation has posted a 2017-18 underlying profit of $253m, which is 96 per cent higher than previously. The result was underpinned by higher commodity prices and increased production. Meanwhile, CEO Shane Stephan forecasts that demand for Australian coal will remain strong over the next six months, despite looming industrial production cutbacks in China. He argues that the traditional winter shutdown in China primarily reduces demand for local rather than imported coal, which tends to be of higher quality.

CORPORATES
NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX NHC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

BHP slashes global growth forecasts as tariff tensions bite

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 27-Aug-18

BHP Billiton now expects global economic growth in 2019 and 2020 to be within the range of 3.25-3.75 per cent, compared with its previous range of 3.5-4 per cent. The resources giant attributes its growth downgrade to the US-China trade war, although BHP’s Huw McKay says demand for most of its commodities is likely to rise in the medium-term. The International Monetary Fund has maintained its growth forecast of 3.9 per for 2018 and 2019, although it recently indicated that the tariff war could prompt a downgrade of its forecast for 2020.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

High prices to drive spring rural listings

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 27-Aug-18

The drought does not seem to have had too much impact on the value of farm properties in New South Wales, with values in some areas rising by 30 per cent over the past 12 months. Andrew Street of Landmark Harcourts says there is a lot of interest in cotton properties at the moment. Sam Hempinstall of Michael Keating International expects demand for Victorian rural estate to exceed supply during the 2018 spring, with good interest coming from both Asia and Europe.

CORPORATES
LANDMARK HARCOURTS PTY LTD, MICHAEL KEATING INTERNATIONAL PTY LTD, ELDERS LIMITED – ASX ELD, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND)