SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Growth in India to fuel coal demand

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Mar-18

World Coal ­Association CEO Benjamin Sporton says demand for Australian coal will remain strong for some time, due to rising electricity consumption in India. He notes that some 300 million people in India currently do not have access to electricity, while a similar number of people are expected to migrate to India’s cities over the next 15 years. Meanwhile, high-efficiency, low-emissions coal plants with a capacity of 48 gigawatts are under construction in India.

CORPORATES
WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION, ADANI MINING PTY LTD, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Banks watch as capital city unit crisis unfolds

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 21 : 31-Jan-18

The yield on US 10-year government bonds peaked at 2.73 per cent in late January, and the policies of President Donald Trump could see yields rise further. This would have major implications for Australia’s banks, which source 30-40 per cent of their funding from offshore. Australian banks are in turn heavily exposed to the residential and retail property markets, and a sharp rise in global interest rates would put downward pressure on asset values in these sectors. This would be of particular concern for the inner city apartment markets in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, where there are already fears of an oversupply.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

UBS warning on household debt

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 19-Jan-18

New figures show that Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio has risen by three per cent to a record 199.7 per cent, which UBS notes is one of the world’s highest. The increase is largely due to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ decision to include the debt of self-managed superannuation funds in the key indicator for the first time. UBS has forecast that the debt-to-income ratio will peak at around 205 per cent, and it has warned that rising household debt may affect demand for housing credit and the earnings of major banks. However, UBS is upbeat about the outlook for non-bank lenders.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Woodside revs up China gas push

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 19-Jan-18

Woodside Petroleum has advised that it produced 21.9 million barrels of oil equivalent during the December 2017 quarter, which is 7.9 per cent lower than the previous corresponding period. Revenue fell by 6.9 per cent year-on-year to $US939m ($A1.2bn). Meanwhile, some analysts say Woodside’s production guidance of 85 million to 90 million boe for 2018 is lower than expected. CEO Peter Coleman has indicated that Woodside will expand its LNG marketing office in China amid growing Chinese demand for gas.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, PETROCHINA COMPANY LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

Lithium prices to peak as local exports soar

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 16-Jan-18

Roskill MD Robert Baylis has warned of a looming oversupply of lithium as Australian producers ramp up output. Baylis notes that production of spodumene in particular is now much higher than global demand. Western Australia’s spodumene export volumes have risen by 84 per cent in recent years, with Tawana Resources, Altura Mining and Pilbara Minerals all set to open new mines in WA during the next six months. Baylis says it will take up to five years for global demand to catch up to supply.

CORPORATES
ROSKILL INFORMATION SERVICES, TAWANA RESOURCES NL – ASX TAW, ALTURA MINING LIMITED – ASX AJM, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GXY, NEOMETALS LIMITED – ASX NMT, GANFENG LITHIUM COMPANY LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CRU, GLENCORE PLC

Gas price plunge after exporters toe PM’s line

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 13-Dec-17

A new report shows that wholesale gas prices on the east coast have fallen by up to 50 per cent since the Federal Government flagged plans to impose LNG export controls in order to boost domestic gas supplies. The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission will release the second report on its investigation into the east coast gas market on 13 December. The report notes that rather than a forecast gas shortage of up to 107 petajoules in 2018, there is the potential for a surplus of around 20 petajoules as LNG producers redirect export volumes to the domestic market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL

LNG glut may last 10 years

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 7-Dec-17

Most analysts expect rising demand for LNG to result in a global shortage by 2023. However, Macquarie Group has forecast that the current global oversupply could potentially last until 2027. The prospect of increased output by countries such as the US, Russia and Qatar are among the factors that could contribute to the oversupply being sustained for longer than anticipated. Meanwhile, new data shows that the three LNG projects in Queensland shipped 1.704 million tonnes in November, compared with 1.68 million tonnes in October.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ENN GROUP

Can resources rally continue?

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 9-Nov-17

Mining and energy stocks have been a major contributor to the Australian sharemarket’s rise above 6,000 points, with the price of both Brent crude oil and iron ore rebounding in recent weeks. Lachlan Shaw of UBS expects demand for commodities in China to remain strong, despite expectations of a slight decline in the nation’s economic growth, while David Lafferty of Natixis Asset Management notes that the world is currently experiencing synchronised economic growth.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIXIS ASSET MANAGEMENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Iron ore market doesn’t warrant extra supply: Fortescue

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 1-Nov-17

Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques recently told staff via an internal communication that its Pilbara iron ore shipments could eventually top 400 million tonnes a year, compared with its 2017 target of 330 million tonnes. However, Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power questions whether there is sufficient demand for iron ore at present to justify a large increase in supply, noting that shareholder returns will be adversely affected if resources projects are over-developed. Meanwhile, Power expects the price discount for Fortescue’s lower-grade iron ore to narrow over time.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, LIBERTY HOUSE GROUP, CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INCORPORATED, METALICITY LIMTED – ASX MCT

Pollution controls lift FMG’s China discount

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Original article by Angus Grigg, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 19 : 31-Oct-17

SteelHome analyst Du Hongfeng says Chinese demand for iron ore is likely to fall by 56 million tonnes between September 2017 and March 2018, as steel mills reduce output during the winter months. He adds that this will require Fortescue Metals Group to maintain its current iron ore price discount until at least March, in order to retain its market share. Fortescue’s iron ore with 58.5 per cent iron content is currently being offered at a 23 per cent discount to the benchmark price for delivery in November, while its iron ore with 56.3 per cent iron content is trading at a 40 per cent discount.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SHANGHAI STEELHOME INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD