SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Fortescue Metals chief says iron ore price is stabilising

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 8-Apr-16

The price of iron ore for delivery to the port of Qingdao in China was trading at around $US55 per tonne in early April 2016. Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power believes that the price of the steel input may be at or near its bottom and is likely to stabilise. Meanwhile, Power expects annual demand for steel in China of around 800 million tonnes and he is upbeat about the outlook for the Chinese economy. He also says the group’s blended iron ore joint venture with Vale should be finalised within 3-4 months.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, CREDIT SUISSE AG, McKINSEY AND COMPANY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Japanese buyers demand cheaper Australian coal

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 11 : 5-Apr-16

The downturn in coal prices and a global oversupply is expected to result in Japan’s power companies securing a lower contract price in current negotiations with Australian thermal coal producers. The annual contract price is usually higher than the spot price, but the utilities are believed to be seeking a discount of at least 10 per cent on the previous contract price of about $US67 per tonne. RBC Capital Markets forecasts that the thermal coal price will rebound to around $US65/tonne in 2018.

CORPORATES
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT INCORPORATED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GLENCORE PLC, TOHOKU ELECTRIC POWER CORPORATION, ADANI ENTERPRISES LIMITED, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. EXPORT FINANCE AND INSURANCE CORPORATION, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, TAURUS FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, STANMORE COAL LIMITED – ASX SMR, VALE SA, SUMITOMO CORPORATION

How the soggy cereal conquered a kingdom

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Original article by Angus Grigg
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 29-Mar-16

Sanitarium is the latest Australian company to enjoy success in the Chinese market. The company’s Weet-Bix breakfast cereal has been exported to China for eight years, but sales momentum has gathered pace in the last 2.5 years and China has become the biggest export market for Weet-Bix. Meanwhile, Adelaide-based Coopers Brewery is benefiting from the growing demand for craft beers in China, which is now the company’s biggest market in Asia.

CORPORATES
SANITARIUM HEALTH FOOD COMPANY, COOPERS BREWERY LIMITED, 31JIU, FOSTER’S GROUP LIMITED, BLACKMORES LIMITED – ASX BKL, SEVENTH DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH, DAXUE CONSULTING, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rio’s long game in copper hunt

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 59-60 : 24-Mar-16

Expectations of a looming global undersupply of copper has prompted renewed interest in the red metal among the world’s biggest mining companies. Jean-Sebastien Jacques, the head of Rio Tinto’s copper division and the group’s incoming CEO, forecasts that global copper supply will go into deficit in 2018-19. He says Rio would consider buying any so-called tier one copper assets that are put on the market, but notes that even tier two and tier three copper assets are expensive now.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ANTOFAGASTA PLC, SUMITOMO CORPORATION, INTERNATIONAL COPPER STUDY GROUP

Ore glut ‘vandalism’ over

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal, Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 19 & 20 : 23-Mar-16

Rio Tinto’s iron ore production in 2015 was 20 million tonnes lower than the group had forecast, while BHP Billiton’s output was in line with the previous year. They had had ramped up production in recent years, attracting criticism from Fortescue Metals Group chairman Andrew Forrest. He believes that the period of oversupply has now ended, but says it resulted in job losses in Australia and over-production by Chinese steelmakers. Forrest has also suggested that the recent resignation of Rio Tinto CEO Sam Walsh may have been due to a change to its iron ore strategy.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BOAO FORUM FOR ASIA

Blackmores, Bega target China’s ageing population

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 17-Mar-16

Bega Cheese and Blackmores have reported strong demand for their infant formula in China. The partnership formed by the Australian-listed companies has been so successful that Bega and Blackmores want to expand into products for China’s ageing population. Bega chairman Barry Irvin said the partnership is working on "three to four" new products for the Chinese market.

CORPORATES
BEGA CHEESE LIMITED – ASX BGA, BLACKMORES LIMITED – ASX BKL, TATURA MILK INDUSTRIES LIMITED

‘Very messy end’ to the apartment boom predicted

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 11-Mar-16

BIS Shrapnel’s MD Robert Mellor forecasts that Australian dwelling starts will peak in the March 2016 quarter, driven by growth in apartment developments. However, he has warned that the apartment boom is also approaching its peak, and New South Wales will be the only state that does not have a dwelling oversupply by 2016-17. Mellor forecasts that Melbourne and Brisbane will be hardest hit by the downturn in the apartments market.

CORPORATES
BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD

China tips iron ore price to slip back to $US40

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 10-Mar-16

The iron ore price rose above $US63 per tonne on 7 March 2016, but Li Xinchuang of the China Iron & Steel Association does not expect this to be sustained. Li forecasts that the price of the steel input will retreat to around the $US40/tonne level in the near-term, arguing that there has not been sufficient change in demand and supply to support current pricing. Li adds that Chinese regulators may oppose a potential alliance between Fortescue Metals Group and Vale on competition grounds.

CORPORATES
CHINA IRON AND STEEL ASSOCIATION, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, CHINA METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY PLANNING AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

Iron ore leads commodities bounce as high-cost producers exit

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 32 : 8-Mar-16

The iron ore price has risen by 41 per cent since late December 2015, reaching a high of $US52.40 per tonne in early March 2016. The price of the steel input has averaged $US51.60 per tonne over the last 12 months. The rebound is partly attributable to the withdrawal of iron ore miners with high production costs from the market. According to Rio Tinto, supply of high-cost iron ore fell by around 130 million tonnes in 2015, while just 75 million tonnes of new supply will enter the market in 2016.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, THE STEEL INDEX LIMITED

LNG oversupply could spell gory end for coal

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Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 25-Feb-16

A recent report from the World Bank forecast that the price of Australian thermal coal will rise to $US58 per tonne by 2020. The price of coal exported from Newcastle was trading at $US40 a tonne in late February 2016, having peaked at almost $US130 a tonne in 2011. Macquarie believes that consumption of thermal coal may have peaked, and it warns that a global oversupply of LNG could further reduce demand for coal.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WORLD BANK