SUPPLY AND DEMAND

China mining boom last in history

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 11-Nov-15

Australian economist Saul Eslake has warned that the prices of many industrial commodities are likely to fall further in the next year or two. Eslake is particularly bearish about the outlook for the price of coal and iron ore. Eslake also told the International Mining and Resources Conference that there is unlikely to be another commodities boom on the scale of the one that was driven by China’s industrialisation. He argues that other developing countries have significantly smaller populations and are less dependent on commodity imports.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Iron ore tipped to hit $US40 by March after Chinese woes

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 23-Oct-15

The iron ore price fell by 0.3 per cent to $US52.79 per tonne on 22 October 2015. Ivan Szpakowski of Citigroup forecasts that the iron ore price will fall to $US50/tonne by the end of 2015 and around $US40/tonne in the first quarter of 2016. He attributes the bearish outlook to factors such as slowing demand for iron ore in China and an increase in global supply.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, SHANGHAI BAOSTEEL GROUP CORPORATION, METAL BULLETIN PLC, PRESTIGE ECONOMICS

Supply cuts and firmer demand may lift prices

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 21-Oct-15

The iron ore price has fallen by 25.2 per cent so far in 2015 and 48.3 per cent in the last year. Oversupply has also prompted the price of Brent crude oil to fall by 15.05 per cent in 2015 and 47.1 per cent over the last 12 months. Julian Jessop of Capital Economics expects the crude oil price to rebound more quickly than iron ore. Meanwhile, HSBC forecasts that iron ore will continue to trade within a range of $US50 to $US60 per tonne for the next several years.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD

Apartment glut sees increase of sales at less than purchase price

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 30-Sep-15

A report from CoreLogic RP Data shows that the number of apartments in Australia’s capital cities that sold below their purchase price rose in the June 2015 quarter. The proportion of loss-making apartments was highest in the Melbourne CBD, accounting for about 20 per cent of all sales. However, Perth and Darwin recorded the biggest percentage increase in apartments selling at a loss.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RP DATA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Citi tips weak recovery in resources for rest of year

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 24-Sep-15

Citigroup notes that market-traded commodities have delivered flat returns at best during the September 2015 quarter. The firm expects only a modest improvement in commodity prices in the fourth quarter, saying prices will be affected by factors such as the uncertain economic outlook in China and excess supply. Citigroup is also bearish about the outlook for the global economy, and now forecasts growth of 2.7 per cent in 2015 and 3.1 per cent in 2016.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES

BHP’s Mackenzie bullish on China

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 18-Sep-15

The iron ore price fell by 3.2 per cent to $US62 per tonne on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange on 17 September 2015. BHP Billiton CEO Andrew Mackenzie concedes that rising iron ore output could put further downward pressure on the price of the steel input. However, Mackenzie says he is much more upbeat about the economic outlook for China – the key market for Australian commodities – than he was earlier in 2015.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, DALIAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UNITED STATES CHAMBER OF COMMERCE, WORLD BANK, APPLE INCORPORATED, DEMOCRATIC PARTY (UNITED STATES)

China manufacturing weakest in three years

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Original article by Angus Grigg
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 2-Sep-15

China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August fell to 49.7 in August 2015, down from 50 the previous month. Julian Evans-Prichard, from Capital Economics, says the PMI reading should be seen in context. The lower reading for manufacturing is less alarming when the service sector PMI is taken into account. The latter fell to 53.4 in August, from 53.9 the previous month, which is not a significant decline.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA

Shortfall in Sydney housing predicted

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 42 : 27-Aug-15

Sydney is likely to experience a housing shortfall of 197,050 homes by 2024. AECOM technical director Joe Langley wrote in a submission to parliament’s inquiry into home ownership that there is not enough coordination between the activities of state transport, finance and treasury agencies. Housing creation should be aligned with public transport projects.

CORPORATES
AECOM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP INCORPORATED, FLEISHER SMYTH BROKAW, COMMITTEE FOR MELBOURNE

Offices go big on smaller tenants, says Colliers

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 38 : 18-Aug-15

Businesses are increasingly looking for smaller offices. The proliferation of start-ups and technology firms has led to more demand for office space in tenancies of less than 500 sq m. Colliers International states in its report on Australia’s CBD office market that the proportion of these tenancies has grown to 83 per cent of all tenancies, from 71 per cent in 2009.

CORPORATES
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Office tenants up but with eye on new supply

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 45 : 6-Aug-15

Sydney’s CBD office vacancy rate fell to 6.3 per cent in July 2015. Strong demand for office space is not limited to the CBD but is also evident in a number of metropolitan areas, including North Ryde, Chatswood and North Sydney. Stephen McNabb, the head of research at CBRE, expects this trend to continue for the next two to three years.

CORPORATES
CBRE PTY LTD, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LPC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, ASHURST AUSTRALIA, ERNST AND YOUNG, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS