SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Australia’s lithium boom underwhelms

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 28-Jun-19

Lithium prices have fallen in 2019 as analysts had predicted, but not necessarily just for the reason that they had forecast. Analysts had suggested that a surge in supply would "crush" lithium prices, but reduced demand in China and a delay in developing and commissioning new capacity in China for converting Australia’s spodumene concentrate into battery-grade lithium have also been cited as factors. Australian lithium exports are certainly growing more slowly than expected.

CORPORATES
GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GXY, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, ALLIANCE MINERAL ASSETS LIMITED – ASX A40, ALTURA MINING LIMITED – ASX AJM, OROCOBRE LIMITED – ASX ORE

Senators demand gas surplus for tax cuts

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 27-Jun-19

Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick has presented the federal government with a number of policy demands in return for supporting its income tax cuts package. Amongst other things, Patrick wants the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism to be strengthened to ensure that the east coast has a surplus of gas. At present, the ADGSM only requires that there is no shortfall of gas in the domestic market. The tax package is scheduled to be debated in the Senate on 4 July.

CORPORATES
CENTRE ALLIANCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, ORICA LIMITED – ASX ORI, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, ONE NATION PARTY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE

New apartment sales crash, projects on hold

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 27-May-19

Urbis has reported that just four cent of apartments in Sydney projects were sold during the March quarter. Sales were not much better in Melbourne and Brisbane, while new apartment launches in Melbourne were down by around 80 per cent. Urbis director Clinton Ostwald notes that major infrastructure projects such as Melbourne’s Westgate Tunnel and Brisbane’s Cross River Rail will help increase demand for apartments once they are completed.

CORPORATES
URBIS PTY LTD

Coal being phased out faster than expected, BHP warns investors

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Original article by Killian Plastow
The New Daily – Page: Online : 24-May-19

BHP has indicated that it has no plans to increase its thermal coal portfolio. CFO Peter Beaven says it expects the thermal coal market to plateau over time, before declining. Jason Aravanis of IBISWorld says demand for black coal is expected to fall by around six per cent a year by 2024, with most of that fall coming from thermal coal. Demand for coking coal, which is used to make steel, is expected to remain sound. The Department of Industry, Innovation & Science’s Resources and Energy Quarterly report for March had forecast that thermal coal export earnings are likely to hit a record $27 billion in 2018-19, before falling to $20 billion by 2023-24.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, IBISWORLD PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, GLENCORE PLC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MINERAL COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

BHP raises the bar on electric vehicle forecasts

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 22-May-19

Resources giant BHP is bullish about global demand for electric cars. Its forecast for the proportion of vehicle sold in 2035 that are electric has been increased from a minimum of 10 per cent to 16 per cent, while it now expects at least seven per cent of light vehicles sold in 2035 will be electric. BHP’s Huw McKay says the take-up rate of electric cars will depend on factors such as investment in recharging infrastructure. BHP has exposure to the electric car battery market via its copper and nickel mines.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, KIDMAN RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX KDR, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Rio Tinto mulls iron ore boost as Vale struggles

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 24 : 10-May-19

Rio Tinto Jean-Sebastien Jacques says the resources giant will only increase its Pilbara iron ore shipments if doing so makes financial sense. The price of the steel input has rallied in the wake of supply disruptions following a tailings dam collapse at a Vale mine in January, and it was trading above $US94 per tonne on 9 May. Meanwhile, just six per cent of shareholders at Rio Tinto’s Australian annual meeting supported a Market Forces resolution which would have required Rio Tinto to set carbon emission reduction targets for its customers.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, MARKET FORCES, FRIENDS OF THE EARTH, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Asians still biggest investors: Knight Frank

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Original article by Lisa Allen
The Australian – Page: 25 : 9-May-19

The federal government’s restrictions on foreign investment in residential property have not been a deterrent for Asian buyers. Liam Bailey of Knight Frank says people from China and Southeast Asia are still the biggest investors in the local residential market. The global head of research notes that a number of other countries have imposed similar restrictions on foreign investors. Bailey forecasts growth in demand for geographically diverse property investments as global wealth increases.

CORPORATES
KNIGHT FRANK, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN

Electric cars lift nickel mines

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 17 : 26-Apr-19

Several nickel producers may resume production at mothballed mines in Western Australia amid growing demand for ethically-sourced cobalt. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for nearly 55 per cent of global supply of cobalt – a byproduct of nickel mining in WA – in 2016. However, BMW has signalled that its next generation of electric cars will only use cobalt from Australia or Morocco. The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s mining industry has been widely criticised for unsafe working conditions and the use of forced labour.

CORPORATES
BMW AG, FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LIMITED, PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX PAN, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, GLENCORE PLC, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF MINES, INDUSTRY REGULATION AND SAFETY, TOYOTA MOTOR CORPORATION, HONDA MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED, PANASONIC

Analysts predict iron ore prices have hit peak

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Original article by Cole Latimer
The Age – Page: 25 : 24-Apr-19

UBS has forecast that the iron ore price will average $US83 per tonne in 2019, warning that the steel input’s recent high of around $US93/tonne is not sustainable. The investment bank says recent supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil are unlikely to have a long-term impact on the iron ore price, forecasting that it will fall over the next 12 months. Expectations of a lower iron ore price have also contributed to UBS’s decision to downgrade its recommendation on BHP’s shares from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’. PhillipCapital expects iron ore to average $US78/tonne in 2019.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, PHILLIP CAPITAL LIMITED, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Miners place big bets on copper to cash in on electric car boom

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 16-Apr-19

Morgan Stanley has forecast that over 10 million electric vehicles will be sold each year by 2025, up from 600,000 in 2015. The rise in demand for electric cars has been tipped to lead to a corresponding increase in demand for copper, with electric vehicles needing around four times as much copper as an average-sized petrol-driven car. Rio Tinto is making copper a key focus of its future plans, having forecast a copper shortfall of eight million tonnes by 2020.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY