ABS August unemployment estimate ignores the 232,000 Australians who have left the workforce since March, 2020

Original article by Michele Levine, Gary Morgan, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-20

The ABS unemployment estimate for August 2020 claims 922,000 Australians were unemployed (6.8% of the workforce), a surprise drop of 0.7% points on July 2020. However, the ABS claims 232,000 Australians have left the workforce since March – meaning the participation rate dropped from 66% to 64.8% in August. If the ABS participation rate was steady at 66% there would now be 1.18 million unemployed. In addition, within the ABS employment release is a section indicating 151,800 Australians the ABS counts as employed were working zero hours in August and had ‘no work, not enough work available, or were stood down’. If these non-workers are added the adjusted ABS unemployment estimate is 1.33 million – an unemployment rate of 9.7%. Combined with the ABS under-employment estimate of 1.52 million that would be 2.85 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in August – 20.7% of the Australian workforce. This ‘adjusted’ ABS estimate is close to Roy Morgan’s unemployment & under-employment estimate of 22.8% for August released two weeks ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Over 2 million Australians still unemployed in June, down 42,000 on May

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-20

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the unemployment estimate for June shows 2.05 million Australians were unemployed (14.5% of the workforce) and 1.41 million (10.0%) under-employed – a total of 3.45 million Australians (24.5%). The small changes in unemployment and under-employment in June show how much new growth is required to provide jobs for the more than 1 million Australians now unemployed that were working prior to the Australia-wide shut-downs enforced in mid-March. In addition the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne over the last two weeks demonstrates the virus poses an ongoing threat to lives, livelihoods and the economy more broadly.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

2.09 million Australians unemployed in May, down 69,000 on April

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jun-20

In May 14.8% of the workforce (2.09 million Australians) were unemployed and 9.7% (1.37 million) were under-employed. This is a total of 3.46 million (24.5%) unemployed or under-employed as Australia begins to open up, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates – obviously an under-estimation as 3.5 million are currently subsidised on JobKeeper. Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says: "Australia has entered its first recession for three decades and a quarter of the Australian workforce is unemployed or under-employed. To emerge from recession quickly businesses and unions must work together to forge sensible and equitable solutions that encourage employers to hire new workers. A Roy Morgan survey this week showed the Federal Court decision to award extra entitlements to certain casual employees will effect up to 794,000 Australian businesses. 567,000 businesses say they will be deterred from hiring casual employees and 123,000 say the decision will ‘force them to close’. This shows if businesses and unions don’t work together hundreds of thousands of Australians will struggle to find new jobs."

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ABS April Unemployment estimate doesn’t reflect reality. ABS claims 594,000 lose their jobs but only 104,000 become unemployed (?!?)

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-20

Yesterday the ABS released its April employment estimates. The ABS estimates that 12,419,000 Australians were employed in April, down 594,000 on March. There were sharp falls for both full-time and part-time employed. The ABS estimate Australian unemployment increased by only 104,000 to 823,000 in April (6.2% of the workforce, up 1%). Australians will be asking, how can the ABS say 594,000 have lost their jobs in April but only 104,000 become unemployed? This is because the ABS claim 490,000 people left the workforce in April. i.e. the ABS claims these people lost their jobs and weren’t then looking for work and available to start work during the reference week. These workers are unemployed – NOT out of the workforce. So the workforce size in April should match the March estimate of 66%. The real ABS unemployment estimate for April is closer to 1.35 million (9.8%) – an increase of 4.6% points. Combined with the estimated ABS under-employment of 1.82 million (13.7%) means a combined unemployment and under-employment of 3.16 million (23.5%). This is much closer to the Roy Morgan April employment estimates showing 2.16 million Australians (15.3%) were unemployed and a total of 3.48 million (24.7%) were either unemployed or under-employed.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows 2.16 million Australians were unemployed (15.3% of the workforce) with an additional 1.32 million (9.4%) under-employed

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-May-20

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows that in total a massive 3.5 million (24.7%) Australians are now either unemployed or under-employed. This is 439,000 fewer than the 3.92 million (27.4%) during the last two weeks of March (March 20-31, 2020), immediately before the Federal Government’s JobKeeper program was announced. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 15.3% for April is now almost three times higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2020 of 5.2%. The ABS figure for March was based on interviews conducted in reference to early March (pre shut-downs) and did not include data related to the situation in late March (post shut-downs).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Good news and bad debt

Original article by Terry McCrann
Sunday Herald Sun – Page: 63 : 3-May-20

The advice from Australian Banking Association CEO Anna Bligh that "so far" more than 320,000 home loan borrowers and 170,000 businesses have had loan repayments deferred is a mix of ‘good’ news and ‘bad’ news. Clearly the numbers who need repayments deferred "will increase". Some "good news" for the government is Roy Morgan’s April estimate of Australia’s unemployed and under-employed, down 439,000 on the last 2 weeks in March – however, it only dropped because of the government’s JobKeeper scheme. If JobKeeper numbers were added to those who are unemployed and under-employed then "real joblessness" is probably around a third of the workforce, with not one person from the public sector ‘out-of-work’. Even with Australian banks proactively playing their part the post-virus reality is not going to be "a walk in the park" – assuming it is allowed!

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BANKING ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ABS March unemployment figures are misleading – because second half of March ignored!

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-20

The ABS yesterday, finally, released their March unemployment estimates – actually the first half of March. The ABS March employment estimates show employment increasing by 6,000 and unemployment virtually unchanged at 5.2%, up only 0.1% from February – both very misleading and should never have been released in their current form. On April 8, 2020 Roy Morgan released accurate real employment and unemployment estimates for the whole of March – pre and post COVID-19 lock-down. Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate pre the COVID-19 lock-down was 7.3%, essentially unchanged on February. However, Roy Morgan’s late March unemployment estimates showed the Government’s COVID-19 lockdown response resulted in an extra 1.4 million Australians becoming unemployed in a matter of two weeks, leading to unemployment of 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increasing 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%) in the second half of March. This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – depression numbers! (Following is a link to full details on Roy Morgan’s March employment and under-employment estimates: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8363-roy-morgan-unemployment-and-under-employment-march-2020-202004080900)

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Extra 1.4 million Australians out of work in wake of COVID-19 pandemic – 3.92 million (27.4% of workforce) now unemployed or under-employed

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-20

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for the second half of March jumped a staggering 1.4 million to 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increased 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%). This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – far more Australians looking for work than was the case during the last recession in 1990/91. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said: "The results from today’s Roy Morgan late March employment and unemployment estimates show the value of timely data closely tracking the employment statuses of Australian workers. In this uncertain times it is vital for Governments and policy-makers dealing with the COVID-19 ‘fallout’ to have the most up-to-date data on the state of the Labour market to make the correct decisions".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Over 2.4 million Australians looking for work following summer of bushfires along Australia’s east coast

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Mar-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,913,000 Australians were employed in February 2020, up 739,000 from a year ago. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 514,000 over the last year (to 8,673,000), and an increase of 225,000 in part-time employment (to 4,105,000). The figures also show that 1,174,000 Australians (8.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 118,000 on a year ago, with the unemployment rate falling 1.3%. An additional 1,269,000 Australians (9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 113,000 (or 0.4%) over the last year. In total, 2,443,000 Australians (17.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, down 5,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% for February is higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that more Australians are working than ever before and 67.1% of Australians of working age are now in the workforce – up 2% points on a year ago and a two-and-a-half year high.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Job sharing: Why Australian businesses should rethink full-time work

Original article by Killian Plastow
The New Daily – Page: Online : 6-Mar-20

Job sharing has traditionally involved two people with similar skills splitting a full-time job in half. However, the University of New South Wales has called for this arrangement to be revised because of the changing nature of work. It states that future arrangements should allow job-sharing employees to work unequal hours, for senior staff to share jobs with junior colleagues, and for the ‘senior’ work partner to be in charge of decision making. With underemployment being a growing problem in Australia in recent years, Professor Rosalind Dixon from the UNSW says these new job-sharing arrangements would help both those who are working too hard and those who are underemployed.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES