UNDEREMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Unemployment measurement is "absurd" says Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-17

Renowned Australian historian Geoffrey Blainey has correctly identified the real problem facing the Australian economy in 2017 – the absurd measurement of unemployment means the true level of real unemployment and under-employment is under-reported. As Blainey correctly pointed out in an interview on the ABC 7.30 Report last Friday, someone who works for only one hour a week being classified as employed is "absurd". Using this definition of unemployment allows the Government to rely on inflated figures of real employment provided by the ABS each month, while simultaneously down-playing the real levels of (much higher) real unemployment and under-employment. The latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates show 20% (2.584 million) of Australians are either unemployed or under-employed. Nearly half a million people (445,000), that Roy Morgan considers unemployed the ABS consider either employed (280,000) or not in the workforce (165,000).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian journalists finally waking up to Australia’s real problem of massive under-employment

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Dec-16

The past week has seen a procession of journalists finally mentioning Australia’s largest problem that’s never talked about – the massive level of under-employment throughout the Australian economy. Today Jessica Irvine in The Age asks the simple question – does working one hour a week sound like a good job? Well of course not, and Jessica’s column highlights the problem of under-employment – working a few hours but wanting to work far more hours, or indeed, work full-time. Jessica’s column follows articles by her Age colleague Ross Gittins, and columnists in The Australian including Judith Sloan and Graham Richardson in the past week who have all highlighted the rising level of part-time work at the expense of full-time work and alongside that comes an increasing level of under-employment – now at 8.4% (1.1 million Australians) in November according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates. The Turnbull Government’s recent announcements on plans to crack-down on the ‘cash economy’ are also long overdue. However the real challenge facing Federal, State and Local Governments is to ensure employment, or more specifically the eradication of unemployment and under employment, is top of the agenda. This means a ‘line by line’ analysis of policy and legislation of all kinds to remove everything that is a barrier to employment, or is contributing to unemployment and underemployment.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Gary Morgan comment on Roy Morgan real unemployment unchanged at 9.2% in November

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

Australia’s continuing high level of real unemployment and under-employment – now above 2 million for a 14th straight month – has persistently indicated the weakness in the broader Australian economy, which has now been confirmed by Australia’s first quarter of negative GDP growth since the March quarter 2011. The ABS announced last week that Australian GDP shrunk 0.5% in the September quarter 2016. The election of Donald Trump in the US last month proves that politicians who take the concerns of their people seriously will find electoral success. Trump consistently asserted during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was far higher than the figures quoted by the official Bureau of Labor Statistics – over 20%, and perhaps even over 30%. The Turnbull Government must learn the lesson provided by Trump’s election without delay.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian real unemployment steady at 9.2% (1.199m Australians); Under-employment down 1.5% to 8.4% (1.1m)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-16

In November 2016 a total of 2.299 million Australians, 17.6% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,199,000) or under-employed (1,100,000). This is down 237,000 (down 2%) from November 2015. Unemployment is comparable to a year ago with 1.199 million Australians now unemployed (up 13,000 in a year but steady at 9.2% due to overall growth in the workforce). These real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for October 2016 (5.6%). In November, the Australian workforce increased to 13,046,000 (up 92,000 since November 2015), and total employment increased to 11,847,000 (up 79,000). Full-time employment is now 7,950,000 – up 374,000 from a year ago (7,576,000 in November 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has decreased by 295,000 to 3,897,000 over the past year (an average of just under 25,000 per month). The lower part-time employment contributed to the fall in under-employment; now 8.4% of Australians 1,100,000 (down 250,000 since November 2015) are under-employed (down 2%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Party’s over as economy turns mediocre

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 7-Dec-16

Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to have fallen by 0.2 per cent in the September 2016 quarter, with year-on-year growth likely to have slowed to about two per cent. This compares with annual GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in the year to June. Despite the relative strength of the economy and a fall in the jobless rate, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has conceded that growth in employment has slowed and underemployment has risen to a record high, at 9.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

The ‘Two-Speed’ economy returns with soaring unemployment and under-employment in Australia’s four smaller States (QLD, WA, SA & Tas)

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

Special analysis of Roy Morgan Research real employment estimates in each State over the three months to October 2016 shows that unemployment and under-employment are a growing problem in Australia’s four smallest States of Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania – all four of which now have total unemployment and under-employment above the national average. In contrast, Australia’s two largest States have clearly the healthiest labour markets and New South Wales – with total unemployment and under-employment of 15.2% (down 2.1% from a year ago) is the clear standout. In Victoria 16.0% of the workforce is now unemployed or under-employed – up 1.4% from a year ago but still well below Australia’s national average of 17.6% (up 1.0%). The end of the mining boom has clearly had a big impact on Western Australia – now at 19.6% (up 3.7%) unemployment and under-employment and Queensland 20.3% (up 3.3%), while Australia’s smallest State of Tasmania continues to have a substantial problem with total unemployment and under-employment of 22.5% (up 1.8%). The closure of several large manufacturing plants in South Australia – including the ceasing of Holden Cruze production at its Elizabeth plant in early October has clearly had an impact, and South Australia now has the highest unemployment and under-employment in the nation at 23% (up 5% in a year).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, GM HOLDEN LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on Australia’s worrying State-based unemployment picture

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-16

One clear political impact of the worsening employment situation is the rise of regional parties around Australia. In particular we have the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia (three Senators and one Lower House MP), the return of One Nation – primarily in Queensland, but also strong in Western Australia and regional New South Wales (four Senators around Australia), the popularity of Senator Jacqui Lambie and the Jacqui Lambie Network in Tasmania and even the election of Senator Derryn Hinch in Victoria. To overcome the popularity of regional parties Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the L-NP Government must concentrate more on the regional problems of high and rising unemployment and under-employment with policies prioritising job creation and a growing economy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION PARTY, JACQUI LAMBIE NETWORK, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

More than a million workers want to work longer hours

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Original article by Josh Gordon
The Age – Page: 7 : 18-Nov-16

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show a high level of underemployment. Among those with a job, 8.7 per cent of employees would like to work longer hours. Sue Richardson, from the National Institute of Labor Studies at Flinders University, says underemployment usually affects those with low levels of education because of the gradual disappearance of jobs in manufacturing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, FLINDERS UNIVERSITY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Gary Morgan’s comment on October unemployment: Donald Trump’s victory in US Presidential race shows electors believe real unemployment is higher than official statistics suggest

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-16

US President-elect Donald Trump consistently stated during his campaign that real unemployment in the US was well over 20% or even 25% rather than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) U3 figure – now at 4.9% for October 2016. In May Trump stated: "We have tremendous deficits. Don’t believe the 5 per cent. The real [unemployment] number is 20 per cent. The United States is dying from within, its domestic infrastructure is crumbling and successive administrations have wasted $5 trillion in the Middle East instead of using the money to create jobs and prosperity at home." Trump’s successful candidacy shows that many Americans agree with the new President that the official unemployment figures are considerably under-stated. There is a clear lesson for Australian politicians in Trump’s success.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, UNITED STATES. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Australian real unemployment now 9.2% (1.188 million Australians) in October 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-16

In October a total of 2.454 million Australians, 19.1% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,188,000) or under-employed (1,266,000). This is up 256,000 (up 1.7%) from October 2015. 1.188 million Australians (up 78,000 since October 2015) are unemployed and these real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for September 2016 (5.6%). Australian real unemployment was 9.2% (up 0.4% in a year and up 0.7% in a month). The problem Australia faces can be seen when comparing full-time and part-time employment: Full-time employment is now 7,594,000 – down 83,000 from a year ago (7,677,000 in October 2015). In contrast, part-time employment has increased by 193,000 to 4,069,000 over the past year (an average of just over 16,000 per month).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS