Australian workforce hits a record high in February as employment and unemployment both increase

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Mar-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.93 million Australians unemployed in February (up 250,000 on January) equal to 13.2% of the Australian workforce. There were more people looking for both full-time work (up 98,000 to 790,000), and part-time work (up 152,000 to 1,140,000), but under-employment was down 300,000 to 1.14 million. Overall, there were 12,703,000 Australians employed (the highest since March 2020), up 28,000. This increase was driven by a rise in full-time employment, up 125,000 to 8,322,000 but part-time employment was down 97,000 to 4,381,000. The combination of these factors led to the workforce increasing to a new record high of 14,633,000 in February. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 13.2% for February is over double the current ABS estimate for January 2021 of 6.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Unemployment down to 11.7% in January – lowest since March 2020, but under-employment increases again

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Feb-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.68 million Australians (11.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in January 2021 (down 44,000 on December). In addition, 1.44 million Australians (10.0% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work. This was an increase of 81,000 on a month ago and an increase of 154,000 over the last two months. Meanwhile, some 12,675,000 Australians were employed in January (up 26,000 from December). The rise in employment was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 46,000 to 8,197,000; part-time employment was down 20,000 to 4,478,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.7% for January is over 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for December 2020 of 6.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ABS October unemployment estimate counts 134,000 Australians working zero hours in October for economic reasons as employed

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Nov-20

The ABS unemployment estimate for October 2020 claims 960,900 Australians were unemployed (7.0% of the workforce), up 0.1% points on September 2020. However, the ABS claim the participation rate has dropped from 66% in March to 65.8% in October. If the ABS participation rate was steady at 66% there would be an extra 60,000 people in the workforce now and a total of 1.03 million unemployed. In addition, within the ABS employment release for hours worked it notes that 133,800 Australians the ABS count as employed worked zero hours in October for economic reasons. If these non-workers are added the adjusted ABS unemployment estimate is 1.16 million – an unemployment rate of 8.4%. Combined with the ABS under-employment estimate of 1.43 million that would be 2.59 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in October – 18.8% of the Australian workforce. This ‘adjusted’ ABS estimate is significantly closer to Roy Morgan’s unemployment & under-employment estimate of 22.2% for October released two weeks ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Unemployment virtually unchanged in October at 12.8% – but up 2.5% to 14.6% in locked down Victoria

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Nov-20

Latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.81 million Australians unemployed (12.8% of the workforce), down 18,000 from September. There were fewer people looking for part-time work, down 76,000 to 1,020,000 but there was an increase of 58,000 people looking for full-time work to 790,000. In Victoria unemployment was up 2.5% to 14.6% – the highest of any mainland State as the strict lockdown continued in Melbourne until the last few days of the month. On raw numbers unemployment in Victoria was up 101,000 to 560,000 and under-employment increased 109,000 to 438,000 – almost 1 million unemployed or under-employed (26.1%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Unemployment hits 6.9pc as 30,000 jobs go

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 16-Oct-20

The locked-down Victorian economy shed 36,000 jobs in September, although the state’s unemployment rate is estimated to have fallen by 0.5 percentage points due to a decline in the participation rate. The national unemployment rate increased from 6.8 per cent to 6.9 per cent in September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest estimate. The ABS jobs data does not include people who have given up looking for work. UBS economist George Tharenou suggests that the nation’s real unemployment rate is likely to be around 10 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ABS August unemployment estimate ignores the 232,000 Australians who have left the workforce since March, 2020

Original article by Michele Levine, Gary Morgan, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-20

The ABS unemployment estimate for August 2020 claims 922,000 Australians were unemployed (6.8% of the workforce), a surprise drop of 0.7% points on July 2020. However, the ABS claims 232,000 Australians have left the workforce since March – meaning the participation rate dropped from 66% to 64.8% in August. If the ABS participation rate was steady at 66% there would now be 1.18 million unemployed. In addition, within the ABS employment release is a section indicating 151,800 Australians the ABS counts as employed were working zero hours in August and had ‘no work, not enough work available, or were stood down’. If these non-workers are added the adjusted ABS unemployment estimate is 1.33 million – an unemployment rate of 9.7%. Combined with the ABS under-employment estimate of 1.52 million that would be 2.85 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in August – 20.7% of the Australian workforce. This ‘adjusted’ ABS estimate is close to Roy Morgan’s unemployment & under-employment estimate of 22.8% for August released two weeks ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

AAA rating defies $184b deficit

Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 24-Jul-20

The Australian economy will contract by 2.25 per cent in 2020-21, according to forecasts in the federal government’s economic update. The nation’s official unemployment rate is in turn projected to rise from 7.4 per cent at present to 9.25 per cent by the end of the year. Treasury has also forecast a Budget deficit of $85.5bn for 2019-20, rising to around $184.5bn in 2020-21. Meanwhile, the nation’s gross debt is slated to top $851.9bn in 2020-21. Moody’s and S&P have indicated that the economic update will have no impact on Australia’s triple-A credit rating.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Jobless could reach 1.4 million by Christmas

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 24-Jul-20

The federal government’s economic update shows that the official unemployment rate is forecast to fall to around 8.75 per cent by June 2021. However, the Treasury notes that the measured unemployment rate could be up to 10.75 per cent by December if employers choose to give existing staff extra hours of work rather than hiring additional staff. This would lift the number of people who are unemployed to about 1.4 million. Meanwhile, wages are now expected to grow by just 1.75 per cent in 2019-20 and 1.25 per cent in 2020-21, compared with a forecast of 2.5 per cent growth in the mid-year update in December.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Women twice as likely as men to be discouraged workers after Covid-19 job loss

Original article by Paul Karp
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 7-Jul-20

A report by the Australian National University has noted an increase in the number of people who are unemployed but not actively looking for work. The report was based on a survey by the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, and report co-author Nicholas Biddle says the increase fits in with the notion of the ‘discouraged’ worker, namely someone who would like to work but does not believe there are any suitable jobs available. The ANU found that women who have lost their job because of COVID-19 are much more likely to be ‘discouraged workers’ than men.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

Over 2 million Australians still unemployed in June, down 42,000 on May

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-20

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the unemployment estimate for June shows 2.05 million Australians were unemployed (14.5% of the workforce) and 1.41 million (10.0%) under-employed – a total of 3.45 million Australians (24.5%). The small changes in unemployment and under-employment in June show how much new growth is required to provide jobs for the more than 1 million Australians now unemployed that were working prior to the Australia-wide shut-downs enforced in mid-March. In addition the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne over the last two weeks demonstrates the virus poses an ongoing threat to lives, livelihoods and the economy more broadly.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED