Real unemployment & under-employment above 2.3 million

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Nov-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,714,000 Australians were employed in October 2019, up 520,000 over the past year. The rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 695,000 over the last year (to 8,582,000); however, part-time employment has declined by 175,000 over the past year (to 4,132,000). The figures also show that 1,075,000 Australians (7.8% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, down 190,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1.6%. An additional 1,232,000 Australians (8.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 10,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,307,000 Australians (16.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, down 200,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 7.8% is higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2019 of 5.2%, although the gap between the two measures is the closest it has been since September 2015. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the best way to reduce the high level of labour under-utilisation, now stuck at over 2 million for over four years, is to provide a healthy and strong economy that encourages businesses to invest in growing their human capital by hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Rate cuts to go on despite jobless drop

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 18-Oct-19

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent in September, after the participation rate eased to 66.1 per cent. The economy added 14,700 jobs during the month, with a 26,200-strong increase in full-time jobs being offset by the loss of 11,400 part-time positions. Westpac economist Simon Murray expects the small fall in the jobless rate to be temporary, adding that it will give the Reserve Bank more time to assess the state of the economy before taking any further action on interest rates. The official underemployment rate is currently 8.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS, SMALL AND FAMILY BUSINESS

Boost for L-NP as unemployment and under-employment both down in August following income tax cut and RBA rate cuts

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-19

Latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 1.18 million Australians (8.7 per cent of the workforce) were unemployed in August, while an additional 950,000 (7.1%) are under-employed. Unemployment has fallen by 2.3% on a year ago, while under-employment is down 0.9%. The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, rose year-on-year by 57,000 to 13,473,000. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the falls in unemployment and under-employment in August are early signs that consecutive RBA interest rate cuts in June and July, as well as the L-NP Government’s income tax cuts, are providing a post-election boost to the economy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Unemployment matters: At the Federal Election the L-NP picked up four marginal seats with total unemployment and under-employment over 25%

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that in July 1.19 million Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) with an additional 1.3 million (9.6%) now underemployed. Employment was up 361,000 to 12,382,000 in July, while unemployment was down 147,000 on a year ago to 1,182,000 Australians, with the unemployment rate having fallen by 1.3% to 8.7%. However, the underemployment rate has risen 1% to 9.6% over the past year. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for July is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for June of 5.2%, although Roy Morgan’s underemployment estimate of 9.6% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says unemployment and underemployment played a decisive role in the recent federal election, with the L-NP Government picking up four marginal seats from the ALP which have total unemployment and underemployment of over 20%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Job data puts rate cut expectations on hold

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 19-Jul-19

The chances of an interest rate cut in August have lengthened following the release of data showing that Australia’s official unemployment rate was steady at 5.2 per cent in June. Analysis by Westpac suggests that financial markets are pricing in a 15 per cent chance of a rate cut in August, although the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to ease monetary policy by the end of the year. The jobless rate rose from 5.19 per cent to 5.24 per cent in unrounded terms in June, while the underemployment rate fell to 8.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Real unemployment at 9.2% in June as tax cuts set to boost economy

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,363,000 Australians were employed in June 2019, up 118,000 over the past year. The rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 479,000 over the last year (to 8,279,000); however, part-time employment has declined by 361,000 (to 4,084,000). The figures also show that 1,254,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in June, up 83,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,275,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 27,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,529,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June, an increase of 56,000 in a year (up 0.2%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for June is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says many commentators are expressing concern about the state of the Australian economy; however, with significant income tax cuts being legislated by the new Government and back-to-back interest rate cuts by the RBA in June and July, there is an increasing amount of stimulus in the Australian economy to support businesses and therefore increase employment opportunities.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Unemployment rate needs to be 4pc to get wages up: Labor

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 28-Jun-19

Shadow assistant treasurer Andrew Leigh will use a speech on 28 June to argue the case for Australia’s full employment target to be lowered. The Reserve Bank of Australia has downwardly revised its estimate of full employment from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent over the last few years, but Leigh will suggest that an employment rate of four per cent is "eminently achievable". He will state that this would result in an extra 160,000 Australians being employed. He says that creating jobs is the best way to boost wages growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS

RBA warns rates may go lower to drive jobs

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 13-Jun-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia recently downwardly revised its estimate of full employment from 5.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent. Assistant governor Luci Ellis has indicated that the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment may in fact be as low as 3.5 per cent, adding that the central bank may have to keep reducing the cash rate until the unemployment rate reaches this level. Australia’s official unemployment rate is currently about five per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Real unemployment at 10.3% as L-NP starts new term in Government

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Jun-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 11,926,000 Australians were employed in May 2019, down 219,0000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 375,000 over the past year (to 3,911,000); full-time employment was up by 156,000 (to 8,015,000). The figures also show that 1,369,000 Australians (10.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in May, up 53,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,223,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 28,000 in a year (down 0.1%). In total, 2,592,000 Australians (19.5% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in May, an increase of 25,000 in a year (up 0.4%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.3% for May is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the first priority for the re-elected Coalition government is to pass the promised income tax cuts as soon as Parliament resumes. Other legislative priorities should include tackling the ‘cash economy’ which undermines law-abiding businesses, reducing the penalty rates for businesses opening on weekends and public holidays, and cutting the regulatory ‘red tape’ that discourages businesses from hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs up, jobless up, pose RBA dilemma

Original article by Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-May-19

Official figures show that the Australian economy added a higher-than-expected 28,400 jobs in April, with a net gain of 34,700 part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent, while the labour force participation rate rose from 65.7 per cent to a record 65.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose to 8.3 per cent and the underutilisation rate rose to 13.7 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates in June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC