UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Jobs market setback rekindles threat of interest rate cut

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Original article by Patrick Commins, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 8 : 21-Feb-20

Ben Jarman of JP Morgan says the latest jobs data will strengthen the case for another official interest rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the economy added 46,200 full-time jobs in January, although this was offset by the loss of 32,700 part-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to a higher-than-expected 5.3 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in December. The labour participation rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 66.1 per cent, and the under-utilisation rate rose to a 19-month high of 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

2020 survey: no lift in wage growth, no lift in economic growth and no progress on unemployment in year of low expectations

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Original article by Peter Martin
The Conversation – Page: Online : 29-Jan-20

A panel of 24 leading economists expects Australia’s economic growth to remain at or below two per cent in 2020. The average forecast is for growth of 1.9 per cent. The consensus of the economists is that the unemployment rate will remain above five per cent, while growth in wages will remain at around 2.2 per cent. The panel also expects the iron ore price to continue to fall, which will in turn see growth in Australians’ living standards slow to 2.4%. Meanwhile, there is general agreement among the economists that official interest rates will be cut just once in 2020 and the the Reserve Bank will not have to pursue quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut odds sink with jobless fall

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Jan-20

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent in December, its lowest level since April. The economy shed 300 full-time jobs, although this was offset by the creation of 29,200 part-time jobs. The underemployment rate was steady at 8.3 per cent; the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ chief economist Bruce Hockman notes that underemployment has remained unchanged over the last year. Financial markets have responded to the latest jobs data by pricing in a 25 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Under-employment up in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,691,000 Australians were employed in December 2019, up 617,000 over the last year. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 367,000 over the last year (to 8,326,000); part-time employment increased by 250,000 (to 4,365,000). The figures also show that 1,205,000 Australians (8.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, down 97,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1%. An additional 1,383,000 Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 205,000 in a year (up 1.1%). In total, 2,588,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 108,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% is higher than the current ABS estimate for November of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says we have seen consistently during recent years that strong growth in employment has not resulted in sustained drops in unemployment and under-employment. This trend continued throughout 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs surge slashes RBA rate cut odds

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-19

The financial market’s expectations of an official interest rate cut in February have been reduced from 56.8 per cent to just 45.2 per cent, following the release of the latest jobs data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 39,900 jobs were created in November, well above economists’ forecasts of 15,000. The unemployment rate eased from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent, with 4,200 full-time and 35,700 part-time jobs being created during the month. The participation rate was steady at 66 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Real unemployment & under-employment above 2.3 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Nov-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,714,000 Australians were employed in October 2019, up 520,000 over the past year. The rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 695,000 over the last year (to 8,582,000); however, part-time employment has declined by 175,000 over the past year (to 4,132,000). The figures also show that 1,075,000 Australians (7.8% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, down 190,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1.6%. An additional 1,232,000 Australians (8.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 10,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,307,000 Australians (16.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, down 200,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 7.8% is higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2019 of 5.2%, although the gap between the two measures is the closest it has been since September 2015. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the best way to reduce the high level of labour under-utilisation, now stuck at over 2 million for over four years, is to provide a healthy and strong economy that encourages businesses to invest in growing their human capital by hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Rate cuts to go on despite jobless drop

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 18-Oct-19

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent in September, after the participation rate eased to 66.1 per cent. The economy added 14,700 jobs during the month, with a 26,200-strong increase in full-time jobs being offset by the loss of 11,400 part-time positions. Westpac economist Simon Murray expects the small fall in the jobless rate to be temporary, adding that it will give the Reserve Bank more time to assess the state of the economy before taking any further action on interest rates. The official underemployment rate is currently 8.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, SKILLS, SMALL AND FAMILY BUSINESS

Boost for L-NP as unemployment and under-employment both down in August following income tax cut and RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Sep-19

Latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 1.18 million Australians (8.7 per cent of the workforce) were unemployed in August, while an additional 950,000 (7.1%) are under-employed. Unemployment has fallen by 2.3% on a year ago, while under-employment is down 0.9%. The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, rose year-on-year by 57,000 to 13,473,000. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the falls in unemployment and under-employment in August are early signs that consecutive RBA interest rate cuts in June and July, as well as the L-NP Government’s income tax cuts, are providing a post-election boost to the economy.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Unemployment matters: At the Federal Election the L-NP picked up four marginal seats with total unemployment and under-employment over 25%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that in July 1.19 million Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) with an additional 1.3 million (9.6%) now underemployed. Employment was up 361,000 to 12,382,000 in July, while unemployment was down 147,000 on a year ago to 1,182,000 Australians, with the unemployment rate having fallen by 1.3% to 8.7%. However, the underemployment rate has risen 1% to 9.6% over the past year. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for July is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for June of 5.2%, although Roy Morgan’s underemployment estimate of 9.6% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says unemployment and underemployment played a decisive role in the recent federal election, with the L-NP Government picking up four marginal seats from the ALP which have total unemployment and underemployment of over 20%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Job data puts rate cut expectations on hold

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 19-Jul-19

The chances of an interest rate cut in August have lengthened following the release of data showing that Australia’s official unemployment rate was steady at 5.2 per cent in June. Analysis by Westpac suggests that financial markets are pricing in a 15 per cent chance of a rate cut in August, although the Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to ease monetary policy by the end of the year. The jobless rate rose from 5.19 per cent to 5.24 per cent in unrounded terms in June, while the underemployment rate fell to 8.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED