UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Jobless rate could hit 13.8pc despite priming of the pump

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Mar-20

The federal government and the Reserve Bank have now announced a combined $189bn worth of coronavirus stimulus measures. This includes cash payments for small businesses and non-profit organisations. However, many companies that operate in sectors that employ a lot of people will not be eligible for financial relief. The construction, retail, hospitality, recreation and education are major employers; it is estimated that the unemployment rate would rise from 5.1 per cent to 13.8 per cent if they shed just 25 per cent of their workforce, or about 1.2 million people.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Major hit, big job losses ahead: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-20

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says the unemployment rate can be expected to rise in coming months, as the coronavirus is likely to result in "significant" job losses. However, he says the labour market should rebound quite fast if the virus’s outbreak in Australia can be contained. Lowe also said the virus and measures to combat its spread will have a "severe" impact on the economy, although he is hopeful that this will be temporary. Lowe has indicated that housing market activity is likely to be affected by the pandemic.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Over 2.4 million Australians looking for work following summer of bushfires along Australia’s east coast

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Mar-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,913,000 Australians were employed in February 2020, up 739,000 from a year ago. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 514,000 over the last year (to 8,673,000), and an increase of 225,000 in part-time employment (to 4,105,000). The figures also show that 1,174,000 Australians (8.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in February, down 118,000 on a year ago, with the unemployment rate falling 1.3%. An additional 1,269,000 Australians (9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 113,000 (or 0.4%) over the last year. In total, 2,443,000 Australians (17.3% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in February, down 5,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.3% for February is higher than the current ABS estimate for January of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that more Australians are working than ever before and 67.1% of Australians of working age are now in the workforce – up 2% points on a year ago and a two-and-a-half year high.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan January unemployment predicted the increase seen yesterday with the ABS results

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-20

The Roy Morgan January unemployment and under-employment result released earlier this week showed an increase in real unemployment to 9.7% in January with over 1.36 million Australians now unemployed (an increase of 1% point from December) and a further 1.23 million (8.7% of the workforce) now under-employed – and now the ABS results have confirmed the upward trend in unemployment. The ABS figures show seasonally adjusted unemployment of 5.3% in January, up 0.2% points from December with 726,000 Australians now looking for a job according to the ABS. The ABS figures show an additional 8.6% of Australians are now under-employed. The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show over 2.5 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) are now looking for a job or looking for more work while the ABS claims a significantly lower figure of around 1.9 million (13.9%). These results suggest the ABS is continuing to under-estimate the level of true workforce labour under-utilisation in Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs market setback rekindles threat of interest rate cut

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Original article by Patrick Commins, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 8 : 21-Feb-20

Ben Jarman of JP Morgan says the latest jobs data will strengthen the case for another official interest rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the economy added 46,200 full-time jobs in January, although this was offset by the loss of 32,700 part-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to a higher-than-expected 5.3 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in December. The labour participation rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 66.1 per cent, and the under-utilisation rate rose to a 19-month high of 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

2020 survey: no lift in wage growth, no lift in economic growth and no progress on unemployment in year of low expectations

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Original article by Peter Martin
The Conversation – Page: Online : 29-Jan-20

A panel of 24 leading economists expects Australia’s economic growth to remain at or below two per cent in 2020. The average forecast is for growth of 1.9 per cent. The consensus of the economists is that the unemployment rate will remain above five per cent, while growth in wages will remain at around 2.2 per cent. The panel also expects the iron ore price to continue to fall, which will in turn see growth in Australians’ living standards slow to 2.4%. Meanwhile, there is general agreement among the economists that official interest rates will be cut just once in 2020 and the the Reserve Bank will not have to pursue quantitative easing.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Rate cut odds sink with jobless fall

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 24-Jan-20

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent in December, its lowest level since April. The economy shed 300 full-time jobs, although this was offset by the creation of 29,200 part-time jobs. The underemployment rate was steady at 8.3 per cent; the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ chief economist Bruce Hockman notes that underemployment has remained unchanged over the last year. Financial markets have responded to the latest jobs data by pricing in a 25 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank will reduce the cash rate in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Under-employment up in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,691,000 Australians were employed in December 2019, up 617,000 over the last year. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 367,000 over the last year (to 8,326,000); part-time employment increased by 250,000 (to 4,365,000). The figures also show that 1,205,000 Australians (8.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, down 97,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1%. An additional 1,383,000 Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 205,000 in a year (up 1.1%). In total, 2,588,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 108,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% is higher than the current ABS estimate for November of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says we have seen consistently during recent years that strong growth in employment has not resulted in sustained drops in unemployment and under-employment. This trend continued throughout 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs surge slashes RBA rate cut odds

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-19

The financial market’s expectations of an official interest rate cut in February have been reduced from 56.8 per cent to just 45.2 per cent, following the release of the latest jobs data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that 39,900 jobs were created in November, well above economists’ forecasts of 15,000. The unemployment rate eased from 5.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent, with 4,200 full-time and 35,700 part-time jobs being created during the month. The participation rate was steady at 66 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Real unemployment & under-employment above 2.3 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Nov-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,714,000 Australians were employed in October 2019, up 520,000 over the past year. The rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 695,000 over the last year (to 8,582,000); however, part-time employment has declined by 175,000 over the past year (to 4,132,000). The figures also show that 1,075,000 Australians (7.8% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, down 190,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1.6%. An additional 1,232,000 Australians (8.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 10,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,307,000 Australians (16.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, down 200,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 7.8% is higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2019 of 5.2%, although the gap between the two measures is the closest it has been since September 2015. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the best way to reduce the high level of labour under-utilisation, now stuck at over 2 million for over four years, is to provide a healthy and strong economy that encourages businesses to invest in growing their human capital by hiring new workers.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS